Where Are People Catching Covid-19 From?

[AuntPollyGrey]

The UK has now been in lockdown nearly five weeks, longer than it takes an individual to catch CV-19 and show signs, therefore the hundreds of new cases admitted yesterday into hospital and the 813 people who died in hospital yesterday must have caught the virus after the lockdown -or did they? Where are people catching the virus? In supermarkets? From delivered shopping? Post? Why is the Government not researching where people are catching the virus from now we are in lockdown.?

[pixie374]

I know of two paramedics (married) who had to drive to Gatwick to be tested about 3 weeks ago. Their symptoms went and they returned to work. Even now, they haven't received their results.

[Zacs-Master]

One problem with home testing is that the test kits would have to be posted both ways thereby coming into contact with a few people.

[jim360]

There's so much news on this to wade through that it's going to be difficult to find the original article. One more recent below:

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/coronavirus-fear-of-reinfection-grows-after-124-south-koreans-test-positive-for-second-time-xrj6pp5z6

[Zacs-Master]

How were you tested, APG?

[woofgang]

Zac I think the thought is that "some people may not" be immune after having it....or at least not show antibodies in their blood. Which is not unusual. I have had German Measles, tested for it and no antibodies, was vaccinated and didn't make antibodies, vacc'ed again and tested again a year later, still no antibodies. This was in the years before childhood MMR and it was considered important that young women were tested and received vaccination as necessary.

[Zacs-Master]

Yes, I know. Until there’s an efficient antibody test we simply don’t know.

[dannyk13]

ZM, apparently the idea is that a photo is taken of the result which is sent to a central checking department.

[SparklyKid]

I am 75 in july and appreciate that isolation and distancing will slow down the virus spread thereby easing the strain on the NHS.

However, this is not going away any time soon and we may have to face the possibility that we will all get infected.

A sobering thought which scares the bejeebies out of me.

I feel lucky living on the edge of a small village, paying more but feeling safer than being amongst lots of people.

I am conscious of the fact that everything I eat, drink or read has been handled by others.

[Gromit]

I know of 3 people who have died, and two were in hospital for other conditions and contracted Covid 19 there. And the other was house-bound and hadn’t set foot outside for a year.
A friends mother got it in a Care Home, and fortunately she recovered.
So the short answer is, for a lot of people, they are getting it from their carers.

[Zacs-Master]

Thanks Danny. It still has to be posted out.

[pixie374]

That sounds feasible, woof. My daughter had chicken pox twice, both times very, very mildly. The first time I was breastfeeding her and she got two spots, so obviously had some antibodies from me, and then needed a few more of her own.
But this is something nobody has any immunity to, so I'm surprised the antibodies aren't stronger /more here.

[Millycat]

Before Covid-19 became the catch-all phrase for recent deaths, hundreds if not thousands of people died every day, week, month, year in the U.K. From natural causes, various illnesses and accidents. Are these deaths still occurring, or are they all bunged in with Covid-19 statistics?

[pixie374]

I've asked that too, milly. A bit each way, it seems.

[Barsel]

Gromit, when you say one person was housebound and hadn't been outside for a year,did that person have people coming into their house like carers, family, friends etc?

[jim360]

The ONS weekly deaths data shows an increase of 6,000 deaths over the five-year-average in week 14, and 8,000 in week 15, corresponding to 60% and 80% increases respectively. Most -- but, notably, not all -- of this increase is attributable to Covid-19. Most, too, of the excess deaths are occurring in people aged 50 and over (I haven't checked the statistical significance exactly but it's clear by eye).

There's therefore no doubt that Covid-19 is causing a rise in mortality rate. The question that can only be answered at the end of the year is whether the annual mortality rate is higher than the average, or whether the fact that most people dying of Covid-19 has co-morbidities that would have led them to die within a few months anyway.

In either case, the statistics are showing a clear and undeniable increase in mortality rate.

[jim360]

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/datasets/weeklyprovisionalfiguresondeathsregisteredinenglandandwales

[pixie374]

As I said on the other thread, Jim, I don't think "extra" deaths because of covid, but not due to it, will ever be included.

[jim360]

I'm not sure what you mean by that.

[pixie374]

I mean my stepsister's husband will die of prostate cancer this year, which wasn't expected before. Entirely due to the coronavirus situation, even if he never gets it. Other people are missing out on vital treatment.

[jim360]

Yes, let me again say how sorry I am to hear that.

From a purely statistical viewpoint, I think that we're already seeing non-Covid "excess" deaths, or at least apparently so, and that this isn't fully understood yet. I suppose we will never know for certain if the excess would have been higher if normal life continued and Covid was allowed to run rampant, or in the current circumstances, but in either case it's a tragedy.