Interest Rates

[billyg]

Does anyone have an educated guess as to what the Bank of England Base Rates will be by the end of the year?

[CovKid]

Most pundits are saying 5,5 -5.75. %. That is 0.25 - 0.5 % above the current rate. The strengthening of sterling against the dollar suggests the market is expecting a rise. Most recently changes have been 0.25. The 3.1 % year on year increase in CPI may persuade the Bank to raise by 0.5%. But if I really knew the answer I'd be too rich to spend time answering questions!

[CovKid]

x

[Oneeyedvic]

I am a commercial finance broker and go to several networking events at which there are often economists and speakers (Bank of England representative at last month).

At the beginning of this year the prevailing thought was that interest would raise by 1/2 percent mid year but fall back towards the end of the year leaving interest rates static on the year.

Now, the thought is that we will see two more 1/4 per cent rises and maybe a 1/4 / 1/2 per cent drop, so around 1/2 per cent higher on the year.

Point is, that economists from the major financial institutions don't know what will happen in the next few months!

[Hammer]

The futures market is a good guide to what the market thinks now. At the moment, this is pricing in just over 5.75% for the end of the year.

So two more rises coming then...