Dodgy Statistics National Lottery 1 In 79 For A Hotpicks 2 Fat Chance

[gordiescotland1]

HI there
I am suspicious of Camelots overall odds of winning a prize in the players guide. It says the average chance of winning a hotpicks 2 prize of £40 is 1 in 79 well I have been playing 21 and 36 since 29 July 2011 and they have never come up and that is over 300 draws can anyone explain that? I now am so convinced they are going to come up now given the length of time I am putting on at least 20 lines at a time so I would win £800 + Logically and statistically it must be due out.

[THECORBYLOON]

If you toss a fair coin ten times and it lands on heads each time, what are the odds it will land on heads on the eleventh toss?

[gordiescotland1]

I dont know what you mean

[Mamyalynne]

It is a 79 in 1 chance each and every draw.

[jim360]

Something with odds of 1 in 79 might be expected to happen every 80 times or so, but there is no guarantee that it will. The concept of "due" as well is something of an error, but an understandable one, known as the Gambler's Fallacy -- the usual chain of argument being something like:

1. that the odds of getting twenty heads in a row are seriously tiny (one in a million for a fair coin)
2.we have just had nineteen heads in a row.
3. surely the next one has to be a tail this time then (P(tail) approaches 1).

Assuming the coin really was fair, though, then the odds of getting a tail are still one half.

For the Lottery, the odds of matching 21 and 36 might be about 1 in 79 so that after 800 straight draws the odds of never matching them are about 3 in 10,000. Which seems very unlikely, but is, sadly, entirely possible.

Better luck next time. But as long as you can have luck, you can have bad luck. That's all that's happened in this case.

[Mamyalynne]

Sorry 1 in 79 - it doesn't matter how many draws there are the chances are the same each draw,

[Baldric]

Think about it ^^^ Gordon!

[gordiescotland1]

So ive been looking at this the wrong way how can I have been so crazy thanks for opening my eyes I feel really stupid but I am now frightened to give up incase they come up

[THECORBYLOON]

The odds of a coin landing on heads is evens (ignoring the very small chance of it landing on its edge) so the fact that it has been heads ten times in a row does not change those odds. Likewise, the fact your numbers have not come up does not mean the chances are not 1 in 79.

[douglas9401]

That's a big part of their business model, Gordy.

[gordiescotland1]

As soon as they do come up Im making a vow to God to give up gambling forever

[THECORBYLOON]

Bet you don't...

[jim360]

I wouldn't feel stupid, it's one of the oldest mistakes in the book and everyone makes it at one time or another.

Luck can play cruel tricks on you. Somewhere out there is probably some lucky sod who's won the hotpicks 2 prize 4 draws in a row or something (which has odds even tinier than the chances of losing 800 times in a row, I think). At the other side of the coin are the stories of people who buy the same numbers every week except once when they were too late to the newsagent, on the very same draw that their numbers finally came up. Or the woman who entered two separate lotteries with a different set of numbers and managed to match every single number, but unfortunately on the wrong tickets (So she had something like 4, 8, 15, 16, 23 42 in the draw that came up 2, 3, 5, 7, 11, 13, and 2, 3, 5, 7, 11, 13 in the draw that gave 4, 8, 15, 16, 23, 42). All you can do is either keep playing and hope that this time you numbers will come up (1 in 79 chance) or stop playing, and curse your luck when it only takes another two or three draws for you to finally win. By about now, given the size of the prize, I'd cut your losses and stop now, unless you are entering the main draw as well (but I don't know how the Lotto hotpicks works so not sure if that's possible without staking more money).