What Happens If Russia Wins?

[Untitled]

https://www.theanswerbank.co.uk/News/Question1868239.html

i asked this a year ago when it seemed less likely

unfortunately it now seems all but certain so it seems worth asking again...

what happens if russia wins in ukraine? 

[Clone]

  Europe can defeat Russia in 'any military confrontation' 

[Untitled]

there's a lot of distance between "can" and "will"!

[Old_Geezer]

It is emboldened to look for other areas it might invade. As will other regimes throughout the world. They will rearm stronger than before, and have learnt to maintain their weaponry and properly train larger numbers of military personnel. Russia and the US will start grabbing Ukraine's rare resources for themselves. Taiwan and South Korea will become very nervous of certain neighbours. There may arise a terrorist/freedom fighter group in the Ukraine/Russia area of the world. The world's population will be wiser about human failings, and real motivation towards making, or not making, the world a better more civilised place, and it's view regarding fairness, and ensuring all know to treat others as they would like to be treated themselves. Longer term, things might settle down, but based on history, the lull will be temporary.

 

Probably lots more too.  Maybe you'll see more statues praising the great Putin, father of his people, and Trump, the great peace-bringer of our time.

[Clone]

Did you ever get round to applying for asylum?

[ToraToraTora]

I suppose it depends on what you mean by "wins". They'll get to keep what they've stolen so that is a win. I suspect that Trump is trying to get acclaim for ending the war and his current stance mainly doing that. I suspect the mineral deal will come off and their'll be American firms crawling all over Ukraine. That will be a de facto guarantee of security, I don't think even Trump will leave 100s of thousands of Americans to their fate. Putin will claim victory and take his toys home for a few years, rebuild and then perhaps look around for his next conquest, probably the Balkans. Zelensky may get thrown NATO membership as a bone as with the US presence like associate membership anyway.

[naomi24]

//I don't think even Trump will leave 100s of thousands of Americans to their fate.//

 

Hundreds of thousands?  That many?

[ToraToraTora]

Why do you continually dig at me Naomi?

Yes 100s of thousands, mining administration, liaison, infrastructure, they be creatuing small towns all over the place. They're not tending an allotment.

[bednobs]

all the americans would have to do is leave so there is no security 'gauruntee'.  they have form

[naomi24]

No one is digging at you.  I question that figure, that's all. 

 

[Untitled]

exactly. there must have been plenty of americans in ukraine in 2022... it didn't deter russia then. there are no security guarantees whatsoever in the minerals deal... it amounts to american companies carving up what remains of ukraine and letting russia have the rest. 

[ToraToraTora]

untitled: "exactly. there must have been plenty of americans in ukraine in 2022... it didn't deter russia then." - yes but they were there naturally for whatever reason. If they are encourage to go there and live as what will in effect be a US colony then I think even Trump will feel responsible if they go there as part of his deal with Ukraine. Also Putin seems to want a way out to save face, the war has been at best a pyrrhic victory and Putin will use the time to re arm and come back later but I think somewhere else.

[ToraToraTora]

" it amounts to american companies carving up what remains of ukraine and letting russia have the rest. " - perhaps but if so, would they want to be subject to Russian administration?

[Khandro]

Trump's bumptiousness leads him to think he 'understands' Putin, but he doesn't understand the Russian leader's criminal & corrupt mentality; a man who is a liar & has coolly ordered the death of many of his opponents.

There are two books out at the moment; The kremlin's Noose and Russia in Four Criminals, which highlight what a corrupt mafia type world Putin's Russia is.

The Donald needs to understand that you can't make 'deals' with the Mafia, it's dog eat dog.   

[Untitled]

"then I think even Trump will feel responsible if they go there as part of his deal with Ukraine"

it's possible but the fact remains that the security offered by the minerals agreement depends entirely on trump (or his successor) "feeling responsible"... it has no written guarantee that the US will protect its citizens militarily rather than evacuating them.. in exchange for such flakey security ukraine is expected to give up about a fifth of its territory and fork over a huge amount of its national income to the USA. it's not a recipe for peace in my view

[naomi24]

//the fact remains that the security offered by the minerals agreement //

 

What security?  I don't see how the presence of American civilians offers security.

[ToraToraTora]

10:18 ..no you really don't do you.

[naomi24]

No, I don't.  You tell me, TTT.

[Untitled]

the idea supposedly is that the US will defend its citizens if ukraine is invaded again... but there is nothing in the minerals deal which actually commits them to doing that or even commits them to sending americans rather than just paying ukranians. 
 

personally i don't think the minerals deal offers any kind of security at all.. i think it's just a fig leaf to cover up for american imperialism

[Old_Geezer]

The hope & prayer would be that the value of the mineral resources would be so attractive to the US that they intervene militarily should there be a further incursion.  However the US public might decide they aren't keen on using their public money to fund a foreign war nor accept US casualties in Europe.  Their record on that isn't prompt action.

[tomus42]

It will march into Moldova, that being a quick win and not in NATO.

After that, who knows. I don't think they're in a position to take on any NATO countries at the moment even with America reneging on its commitment. They're weakened economically and militarily from years of fighting, so there will be a pause while Europe and Russias scramble to arm themselves.

Also they will have created a occupation/terrorism/resistance situation for themselves in Ukraine which will tie up a load of their troops.