Apologies Ric.ror,
but I think your question may be almost impossible to answer correctly.
Why?
Well, even in a good housing market there are so many variabkes that it's an impossible task.
Given the present volatile market,it just makes it more impossible.LOL
Consider the following:~
What worries me is that you state,"I HAVE to buy a house in a region I do not really want to stay in for more than a few years (family reasons)"
I personally cannot see house prices rising enough in the period you mention to warrant buying them for profit.I feel you may break even or make a small loss.If you are content to do this then go ahead.If I had sufficient funds I would rent for a couple of years,and then look around for a property (in whatever area you want) to buy.As I say I cannot see property rising that much (not like the boom era) for about 10 years ago At least renting means you would not have a millstone around your neck until you decide to move on.
To sum up:~
Property prices will take a LONG time to get back to what they were.
The Property market may (possibly) never get back to being as overheated as it was.
If you BUY a Property now you may get a bargain<BUT don't expect much of a return in the short term( your few years).
I don't think that even though the Property market is falling that Tax etc next year will see MORE significant falls.Of course it really depends on the section of the market you are considering.Very expensive houses have fallen ore per ratio that cheaper terraced properties.
Renting (if financially possible) would leave you free to move on (and buy) whenever you need to,safe in the knowledge that although Property prices MAY rise it will only be a negligible amount.