Ok Paul. In theory, heating half a house will cost half as much.
In practice though...
Heating just the downstairs:
Heat rises, so a large proportion will inevitably migrate upstairs. Also, the very fabric of the building will heat up... including upstairs.
Even with upstairs turned off, downstairs will have to work harder due to the heat lost to the colder upstairs.
A balance between heating down AND up would be more efficient.
Set downstairs to your comfort level, but set upstairs to a lower level.
As for costs: For every kw of electricity consumed by a heat pump...
4kw of useful heat is produced (approx. since they must work harder in the conditions we've had recently.)
I have a super-duper insulated new house with a Heat Pump.
Even so, I would be well chuffed to get away with a cost of £200 for a really cold month at today's high electricity charges. (Much, much higher than last year of course.)
Perhaps I'm not typical though since it's a big house... and I don't "do" cold ;o)
It's not an exact science despite what the experts say. You really have to experiment.