Mathematical odds on lottery numbers...

[enigma80]

are there greater odds on getting 6 numbers in order (i.e. 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6) than they are on getting 6 random numbers? Surely the order must make it less likely?

[jenstar]

Yes, the order makes it far less likely.

[sft42]

When the National Lottery first started way back when I was in one of the first batch of people trained up to use the new machines (when incidentally they expected the weekly jackpot to be around the �2 million mark).....during the induction and training it was impressed on us not to try to force a selection of numbers onto anyone or equally force out of any selection but although camelot steadfastly refuse to give out statistics of this sort they were able to tell us that each week on the New York state lottery around 10,000 people play six consecutive numbers....no lottery draw in the world has ever had anymore than four numbers in a row...though in roughly half the draws made there will be two consecutive nembers

[smorodina]

The point is, the numbers can be drawn in any order for you to win - they do not have to be drawn consecutively. Therefore the odds of the final six numbers being (eg) 1,2,3,4,5,6 (irrespective of the order they are drawn in) is exactly the same as for any other six drawn numbers. The fact that this has never happened just shows how long the odds are for any six numbers drawn.

[Disco Fever]

So I remember when the lottery first started you have a 14 million to 1 chance of winning

[BenDToy]

Sorry to disagree with you all but I can categorically assure you that the odds of getting any 6 numbers are exactly the same. The 1-6 combination is no different. I know everybody would say "well what are the chances of that" but somebody thinks that every week! The only difference would be the payout. It is the most commonly selected combination, so if it came up, it would be shared by more people than any other. The main thing is that statistically it is identical.

[BenDToy]

Sorry smorodina I did not read your answer properly. I agree with you entirely.

[smorodina]

I wonder if it is the most commonly selected set of numbers. One study I looked at suggested that many people avoid consecutive numbers because they feel they are less likely to come up. As to the fact that no lottery has had six consecutive numbers in the winning line - so what? There are millions of non consecutive combinations that have never been a winning line, but we are not programmed to see any relevence in that.

[jenstar]

Just to clarify, what I meant by my answer was that since there are only 43 possible combinations of six consecutive numbers, there are only 43 chances in 14 million of consecutive numbers being drawn, as against nearly 14 million out of 14 million non-consecutive selections. So it is far less likely for a set of consecutive numbers to be drawn, than a set of non-consecutive numbers. On the other hand, it's still more 43 times MORE likely that they'll draw out six consecutive numbers than that they will draw the six numbers on your ticket!

[sft42]

Yes Yes, I am aware of all the statistical premutations (I have been bored rigid ny them many many times) but the point is as Jenstar well points out that in lotteries patterns simply don't work as you are cutting your chances hugely.....Yes any set of six numbers has as much chance of being drawn as any other...but....look at jens figures again there 43 in 14 million possibles for a straight six flush.....it aint gonna happen in a hurry...I wouldn't even recommend any sets of three in your pics of numbers and if you want to win big then make sure you have at least two numbers above 31 in your six as many studies throughout the world have shown that a high percentage of people pick birthdays or anniversaries of their family members as their numbers, basically people get stupid when they think they might win loads of dosh.

Overall it's a tax on the not very good at maths...stick away a fiver a week into a small savings account and in 20 years time you'll have much more than you'll average in any lottery.

[smorodina]

Of course Jenstar is right that the probability of six consecutive numbers coming up is smaller than any other combination, but that is not what you're betting on. You are betting on six randomly drawn numbers, and the probability of them being consecutive is no different from non-consecutive.

[enigma80]

Thanks for the replies everyone. I agree with you all in different ways. I know that in terms of cold mathematic reasoning it is no less or more likely, however, I still believe that text books aside most people would agree that it is less likely to happen in consecutive numbers. It's a hard one and I think both answers are correct. So in reference to the original question it would seem that maths says no, and logic says yes. Thanks everyone!