For All Those Just About Managing To Pay...
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No best answer has yet been selected by jibjab. Once a best answer has been selected, it will be shown here.
For more on marking an answer as the "Best Answer", please visit our FAQ.The formal warning is internal, and should you apply for other jobs, I wouldn't expect the matter of your disciplinary record to arise. In the event that it does - deal with it. This will be the same whether you stay for the next 6 months, or leave before then.
As for the reference, is there anyone else within the company who is willing to give you one?