Michael Gove, the Conservative chief whip, tells the BBC that if this poll is correct, “the Conservatives have clearly won this election, and Labour has clearly lost it.”
Lib Dems 10? Wow. If that bears out... just... wow.
That exit poll amazes me. I mean, I have been saying that all results were possible, including a late swing to the Conservatives, but I wasn't necessarily expecting it to happen at that level. I thought they might hit 300 at most, with a bit of luck.
We'll see how true it is. If SNP also win every seat in Scotland, the next few years could well be a constitutional mess.
Well, what happens is that the media report a result as neck-and-neck and tend to overlook the uncertainty that comes with that. Equally, a result that gives one party a two-point lead could just as well be a dead heat.
Polls can be trusted once you understand their limitations -- but if you keep overlooking these then -- well, 1992 happens, for example.