Leaving Eu - Effect On Jobs

[tandh]

can someone explain this to me. I know i'm going to come across as being a bit stupid here, and maybe i should have asked this before the vote; but how does leaving the e u effect peoples jobs? From what i've heard it will make trading over sees harder, but surely other countries will still want to do business with us, at the end of the day they will also be losing out if they don't

[naomi24]

The EU will be eager to do business with us. We buy far more from them than they buy from us. Ignore the scaremongering.

[zebo]

It may impact on unemployment, there'll be work picking in the fields and working in the chicken factories, plenty of jobs that only the Poles would do, beneath many of the homegrown population who prefer to draw benefits. One place near here advertised jobs and the only applicants were from eastern Europe. So hopefully we'll see a large drop in unemployment.

[Buenchico]

It depends upon whether the UK remains within the European Economic Area or not. (Countries like Norway are outside of the EU but inside the EEA, meaning that they can still trade freely with the rest of Europe).

If the UK ends up outside the EEA many firms will switch all, or part, of their UK operations to countries within the EU. HSBC has already said that 1000 London-based jobs will be moved to Paris and several of the big American banks have indicated that they'll move their London offices as well. Further, it's almost certain that the Japanese car plants based in the UK will be closed down, and their operations moved elsewhere. (They only came to the UK to gain free access to European markets). Also, other foreign investors (such as major Chinese firms) that currently pump money into British businesses will cease doing so.

So, if the UK ends up outside the EEA, it's almost certain that an additional 2 million people will be made unemployed, with some analysts suggesting that the figure could well be over double that.

However Boris Johnson (and others who were associated with the 'Leave' campaign) are working on the assumption that the UK will end up in a position similar to that of Norway. (i.e. inside the EEA but outside the EEA).

[Buenchico]

Aaagh!

That posted itself (without me hitting 'Submit') just as I made a typo! Let's try that paragraph again:


However Boris Johnson (and others who were associated with the 'Leave' campaign) are working on the assumption that the UK will end up in a position similar to that of Norway. (i.e. inside the EEA but outside the EU). The big problem with that hope is that there's a price to pay for such a position. Countries like Norway are only allowed to trade freely with EU countries if they agree to abide by many of the rules of the EU. In particular, they have to ensure that there's freedom of movement (of people, as well as goods) between their countries and the EU.

To summarise then:
If we end up outside the EEA, unemployment will rise to at least 3 million (with many analysts suggesting that 5 million or even, in a worst case scenario, 8 million might be a more accurate figure). If we remain in the EEA, we'll have to follow the vast majority of EU rules (without having any say whatsoever in what those rules are), including still having to allow unlimited immigration from EU (and other EEA) countries.

[Hypognosis]

EEA trade *with EU-set conditions* is, therefore, NOT "free trade".

I think this will be my mantra for the next few years. The Norway/Swiss model is a ****ty deal. They must only be putting up with it because they're somehow coining it out of sales to EU.

Either that or it touches on aspects like negotiation strength. The EU imposes things because it can and it can because it has (508-65) million people.

[Old_Geezer]

There is bound to be a transition period when contracts that used to be firm are taken off the table and new deals need to be made. One can minimise the effect by not rushing at things, and take heart in the fact that it is bound to be back to normal afterwards and we will then in a better situation with more control over our own affairs.

[tandh]

some good answers here, i do struggle to understand things like this but i think i'm starting to get it a bit more now. i still dont understand why companies are closing shop here in the uk just because we've come out, is it because of the uncertainty? i also think it's a bit stupid that we are trying to join the eea, as it seams worse than being in the eu as we wont have a say in anything

[baza]

Last week the tractor plant in Basildon was going to close if the vote went for exit, now they are saying it's business as usual. It would appear that nobody really knows what will happen.