Predictions of General Election Result

[slimfandango]

What's the relationship generally between what the polls say now and what happens on the day?

[Loosehead]

There is a very limited correlation because the Polls are purely percentages and the actual vote is a first past the post system. Hence we have the numerous occasions when the Polls have been completely wrong. Remember 1992, Labour where well ahead, lost! You see the percentages can be skewed by the situations that exist in individual seats. For example the seat with the smallest Labour majority is less than 200, a very tiny change of heart, disproportionate to the percentages would lose the seat and to labour that's 2 seats gone from the majority.

The polls are an interesting guide and give the media lots of ammo for discussion but they can often be taken with the proverbial pinch of salt.

[slimfandango]

ooooooh. thanks loosehead. I'm terribly sorry, but I can't put up with 4 years of Michael Howard on my tv screen. that voice...

[Ralph]

Slim, I'd say the chances of him resigning on May 6th are fairly high. There's always a danger in saying things like this though!

[jenstar]

They usually get first and second place right, but not always in the correct order.