Spain, who wins the Bulls or the Bears?

[youngmafbog]

After the initial excitement of the bail out (Sorry, loan) the Bears took over and it all came crashing back.

The Eurozone debt crisis is still plagued with Greece and the Irsh, hardly surprisingly, want to renegotiate theirhow long can the h loan to be comparable to the Spanish.

Major Banks having already set plans in place to get Greece out fast were today getting the ball rolling for the Spanish to get out.

Just how long can the Euro remain as it is before it finally becomes the EuroMark ? Will the Germans really tolerate this slow strangulation or will they just collaborate with the French a go it alone?

[TheNovice]

the whole thing is a shambles....Trevor Kavanagh writes a good column in The Sun (yeah I know, but he seems to assess the situation very well). Still someone's earnt money today, buying low first thing and selling high later in the day. Borrowing to clear debt will never success, especially borrowing of someone who hasn't got the cash in the first place!!!

[TheNovice]

success should be succeed

[beegeebee]

Had the Germans not been in the Euro their exports could not have happened as the Mark would have been so highly valued against other currencies. By being in the Euro it meant their cost base was kept artificially low, to the detriment of other countries.

[jake-the-peg]

Actually the Euro has been a great benefit to us in the UK

The financial crisis is not a feature of the Euro - We've got our own, the Americans too.

The Greeks, Irish Spaniards etc. would all be in a financial mess had they not been in the Euro too.

Had they not been in the Euro they would be looking to the IMF to borrow this money - whic of course we're a major contributor to.

The fact that they're in the Euro and we're not has meant that to a large extent we've managed to say "not our problem Guv".

Obviously apart from when it's suited us - like lending a load of money to the Irish at inflated interest rates!

How long before it becomes the "Euro-mark"? well to a large extent that's the Euro-bonds idea - essentially Germany would be guaranteeing everybody's debts.


Currently the Germans are strongly resisting - they certainly don't want that

How long can they hold out for?

[youngmafbog]

Except Jake that all countries are geared to the German economy. For countries like France that is no bad think but if you are at the bottom of the pecking order then when things go wrong (eg the global recession) then they are unable to use a mechanism to place their currency in the right place. So I have to disagree that the PIGS would be in exactly the same mess.

[venator]

Jake - when Greece, Spain etc went into the Euro, they were able to borrow at very low rates based on the German economy. They had a field day, spending like there was no tomorrow, and the EU let them get away with it.

[jake-the-peg]

Venator

Spains problems have not been to do with run-away public spending, nor have Irelands

Both countries suffered like the UK from a property bubble that burst leaving reckless bankers with huge bad debts.

This was even acknowledged in today's Daily Mail!

Get your facts straight!

Get your facts straight

[TheNovice]

the flaw in the euro was that entry level took no account of a future downturn and every country was expected to match Germany's fiscal model.

Jake- you're sort of correct in the cause of the Spain situation, the property bust was a major factor, but not the sole factor. Public spending is high (massive unemployment) and also borrowing more at higher rates to clear exisiting debt. The latter situation has been repeated with the latest bail out (although Spain refuse to call it that). In fact Spannish bonds have risen to a ten year high today which, coupled with markets falling back suggests the latest solution has failed. Unless Germany acts to underwrite these debts the Euro will fail. None of this extra borrowing will stimulate the economies and get all EU countries moving forward.

[TheNovice]

Jake - the interest rate for the UK's loan to Ireland can hardly be described as 'inflated interest rates'. http://www.independen...ut-loans-3136624.html