A Labour Landslide at the next election?

[Gromit]

OK, so it is just a poll mid term of a Government. But all the same, it is not happy reading for the Conservatives. Calls for them to ditch the coalition and call a snap election would seem to be badly timed. The Lib Dems will be decimated probably coming in fourth behind UKiP. And Labour, despite havong a wet blanket as a leader are massively ahead in the polls.

http://www.telegraph....st-David-Cameron.html

Can the Tories pull the lead back?

[ludwig]

// More than a third of people who voted Conservative at the last election will refuse to back David Cameron in future //

They're lying. Who else are they going to vote for? not UKIP - obviously - no-one does. Not Labour, until David takes over from Ed, and not anything else. Seriously, where is this mass of Tory voters going to defect to?

[MarkRae]

I agree that Labour are unlikely to win an election with Ed at the helm. Trouble is, I don't think his brother is much better.

Whatever your personal opinion, political figures like Thatcher and Blair were HUGELY charismatic, and that's what gets dumb Britain off its аrse and into the polling booth...

[Gromit]

Ludwig

If they vote for no one that is a vote lost to the Conservatives.

[potterfan3]

Labour will probably gain a good majority of the lib dem votes from the last election. But it is another 3 years until the next election, a lot can happen. Remember Thatcher was hated by most of the Country until the Falklands war, afterwards she managed to win another 2 terms. We need to wait and see.

Snap general election now then yeah I think Labour will get a landslide, but Clegg and Cameron know that so they'll do everything they can to keep the coalition from failing.

My own prediction is that Labour will come back in 2015, and then in 2020 Boris will lead the Tories into power (seriously, Boris as PM :S)

[MarkRae]

Boris' political future will be determined by what pans ouut in the next few weeks. That much, surely, is clear...

[potterfan3]

I think that if the olympics goes tits-up then the government will be blamed. Maybe Teresa May specifically given the G4S scandal and the fact Home Office staff are striking.

[MarkRae]

It will depend exactly how it goes tіts up. If there's a terrorist attack, then obviously the government will be blamed, but that's highly unlikely IMO. However, if there's total chaos because public transport can't cope, then Boris will bear the brunt.

[Hopkirk]

We will probably get another hung parliament, with Alex Salmond as kingmaker.

[ABerrant]

Even if polling favoured the Conservatives Cameron can't call a snap election. The Prime Minister was stripped of that power by the Fixed-term Parliaments Act. An election can only be triggered if two-thirds of MPs vote for dissolution or if the government loses a vote of no confidence and no alternative government can be formed within 14 days. Cameron couldn't very well table a motion of no confidence in his own government and he couldn't persuade two-thirds of MPs to vote for dissolution without the support of the Labour Party. He could initiate a divorce with the Lib Dems, but that wouldn't automatically lead to dissolution. Instead of tabling a motion of no confidence, Nick Clegg could simply cross the floor and attempt to form a rainbow coalition with the Labour Party and others. Alternatively, the Lib Dems could simply retire to the sidelines, condemning David Cameron to leading a minority government. The Conservatives would be forced to limp along until their poll ratings were so low that Labour agreed to put them out of their misery - in effect giving the Opposition the ability to call the election!

[jake-the-peg]

Don't forget this isn't a presidential election.

An awful lot of the Tory heartland constiuancies will moan like hell and still return a Tory MP.

The only people with a vote worth a damn are those in the marginals.

It's what they think that counts.

But don't you think this is interesting?

// //

[jake-the-peg]

Sorry

//The research also found that a majority of people believe the Liberal Democrats should have more infulence...//

rather flies in the face of perceived wisdom about what people think about Clegg

[VHG]

With what is happening all over Europe, in Greece, Spain, Ireland and so on, can we "afford" another Labour government.

"Socialist governments" (assuming you call Labour socialist) are very good at giving money away, and in the current climate we cant risk having another government that gives money away.

For example the PFI scheme (introduced by John Major but used extensively by Gordon Brown to build hospitals and so on) is costing us all a fortune.

Some NHS trusts are using a fifth of their funding to pay back the cost of PFI schemes.

Gordon Brown used PFI to "pretend" he was not borrowing as much miney as he really was (PFI means an external companies builds something then the government pay them back over time).

This is just one example of how Labour's extravagant spending put this country into so much debt, and we cant risk another Labour governemt dragging us down to the same situation as Greece, Spain, Ireland etc.

I am not saying everything the current goverment is doing is right, but at least they accept the problem and are trying to do something about it.

Labour would just get back in power and start spending and giving money away again, putting us in further debt.

[factor-fiction]

The Alliance are slipping on some banana skins at present but I don't think things are as bad for them a some suggest.

Polls usually come up with this sort result at the mid-term stage, particularly at a time of economic problems across the world. Most governments are unpopular and many people who voted for them feel reluctant to admit they did so or will do so next time. I went to a comedy gig recently and he asked the audience if any of them had voted for the Conservatives or Lib Dems at the last election. Not one person put their hand up or spoke up, yet this was an area in which the parties had done pretty well at the election.

When it comes to the crunch people may well continue to vote for the Conservatives. However I do think the Lib Dems will suffer and Labour will gain most of their votes.

The government has to take tough decisions and these usually lead to complaints from someone that a proposal will hit hard working families/pensioners/the unemployed/the sick/taxpayers/ those who have saved/women/children, etc. It is hard to think of anything sensible but different that any party could do at this time as we try to unpick many years of profligacy.

[factor-fiction]

Did I say Alliance? I meant Coalition.

[jake-the-peg]

Our major debt problem isn't coming from building hospitals VHG

It's from rescuing bankers

And seeing as Every Tory Primeminister since McMillian has lead us into a recession - can we afford NOT to elect another Labour government?

No Spending - No Jobs - No Hope -No Thanks

[factor-fiction]

>"Every Tory Primeminister since McMillian has lead us into a recession "

Have you got your list of those, Jake?

And have any Labour government's ever led us into recession? I think so.

And who was in charge when the bankers were rescued? Anyway, wasn't rescuing the bankers just a form of nationalisation ?

[factor-fiction]

Oh no- did I put a rogue apostrophe on governments in my last post?
Sorry mark!

[ichkeria]

I listened to a Tory back bencher who voted against Lords reform claiming that he wanted to see the coalition break up and his party call and win an election. There seems to be this obtuse belief among many of them that the Lib Drms are holding them back and that somehow the country at large is gagging for unfettered Osbornism. A further consideration is that were the Liberals to walk out of an unpopular and incompetent govt they might claw back some tactical labour voters in Tory marginals, thus making it even worse for the Tories.

[factor-fiction]

These discussions are interesting but of course we never change anyone's mind so I'm not sure they achieve much. I'll stick to Q&P I think

[Quizmonster]

Jake, it's pretty pointless telling people with right-wing leanings what the facts are in most circumstances, as they just don't seem capable of grasping them.
For example, even when they know PFI was a Tory 'invention', they still use the problems it has caused as a rod to beat Labour with. They also find it utterly impossible to decry the actions of the Tories' major backers, the casino bankers - despite recent Parliamentary committee evidence - for any aspect of financial shenanigans. And as for that, they seem to believe that the 2008 global collapse happened only in Britain and was caused by only one man...Gordon Brown.
It's difficult to get through to people with such a tenuous grasp of manifest reality.