Today's Bye Election In Eastliegh

[Gromit]

My Eastleigh bye election prediction.

1. LibDem 18,000
2 Conservatives 16,500
3 UKiP 15,500
4. Labour 13,500

LibDem Hold. Higher turnout but Both Coalition parties lose votes.

Labour come fourth of the main parties but they never had a chance of winning but increase their vote.

Conservatives hold off being beaten by UKiP but not by much. Many Conservative voters stay at home. Too close for comfort for Cameron.

UKIP. Their most votes but not quite beating the Conservatives. If Farage
or Neil Hamilton had have stood then they could have won it. Not fielding a 'known' candidate was a big mistake ib a constituency which was theirs to be won.
UKiP takes votes from Co

[emmie]

i reckon Elvis loves pets will do very well

http://news.sky.com/story/1058003/eastleigh-by-election-voters-go-to-the-polls

[Zacs-Master]

It certainly will be 'bye' for some of them.

[youngmafbog]

Seems about right looking at the poles. It may be a little tighter between the Tories and liberals but I still think the Liberals will hold it.

As ever with these things just because one man is a liar or cheat doesn't mean the whole party is rotten, whichever party that may be.

Probably more depends on whether they vote on local issues rather than National too. It is fairly affluent round there.

[anotheoldgit]

/// Seems about right looking at the poles. ///

Blimey don't tell me they have got a vote?

[Davethedog]

?? Dependent on turn out:

1) Tory
2) Lib Dem
3) Labour
4) Facist party for idiots

[emmie]

rather a slip there wouldn't you say, poles, polls?

[LazyGun]

There do seem to be some hot button local issues down there that will be very important to the outcome. The Huhne Affair and now all this business of Rennard and Cleggs leadership must play a part in some voters switching from the LibDems, but who they will switch to I am unsure. The conservative MP did herself no favours over the whole "I have a gifted son who is too good for a local state school", and has been somewhat -absent-from the debate.

I think UKip might have a very good chance here - by all accounts, their candidate has been pretty good. I personally doubt Labour will be able to gain enough votes to make it as close as Gromits prediction, but we shall see :)

This was the result from the last general election in 2010
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/election2010/results/constituency/b57.stm

[humbersloop]

what's your odds on ray hall then gomit? ;)

[emmie]

i would vote for dave bishop, he sounds funny

[anotheoldgit]

em10

/// rather a slip there wouldn't you say, poles, polls? ///

Hence my quip em.

[jim360]

I think the ranking might be close to right but the numbers may be too high -- by-election turnouts usually aren't so large.

[LazyGun]

I think, with all the attendant publicity of this by-election, and with all the political activity and media presence, we will see a turnout similar to a general election.....

[ichkeria]

I can't see a combined Tory/UKIP vote of 32,000. A result like that would be Cameron's worst nightmare: it would show that his posturing on Europe can't stop a large UKIP vote letting another party in.

[AB Editor]

I do think this will be UKIP's best showing - they've been turning up all over the place and saying reasonable things in a good natured way. A real worry for those of us who don't want to brick up the channel tunnel.

[ichkeria]

The Tory candidate in Eastleigh is pretty much UKIP with a blue rosette. If someone like her can't prevent a sizeable showing by the purple and yellow version then the Tories really are in trouble. Bearing in mind however that this is only a by-election.

[Gromit]

Yes, All the figures are probably too high. I mistakenly thought turnout went up at bye elections, but it doesn't. The rankings still remain my best guess.

[ichkeria]

Turn-out might be quite high in this one of course. UKIP are certainly talking up their chances, although their claims of 27% seem exaggerated and designed to encourage people away from a "wasted vote" mentality. In fact I thought I'd seen somewhere that they'd based it on postal voting, but I must have misread.
It's been noticeably open season on the Lib Dems over Lord Rennard and other issues this week in most of the Tory papers. Danny Finkelstein really went to town on them in the Times yesterday. When the divorce finally happens I predict blood on the mansion carpet!!

[Davethedog]

Latest poll yesterday give UKIP 13% of the vote, I presume amongst those that intend to vote.

British people may be led by the mis-informed media, but they are not "so stupid"

[ichkeria]

The latest Ashcroft poll on Feb 24 had them on 21%, 7 behind the Tories and 12 behind the Lib Dems. The combined Tory/UKIP figure was still less than 50% of those polled.
As I said earlier, a large split Tory/UKIP vote with a winning Lib Dem candidate would be a very bitter pill for the Prime Minister.

[Gromit]

Well, I got that wrong. Good result for UKiP?