Ukip On The Rise

[Gromit]

Even before the Local Council Elections, UKiP has gained 30 more seats this year. Mainly they are Councillors defecting from the Conservative Party.


http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/9974498/Ukip-defections-surge-in-local-election-threat-to-Tories.html

// Ukip defections surge in local election threat to Tories
Ukip has gained more than 30 council seats in just three months in worrying sign for the Conservative Party's local election prospects.

It has attracted more than 20 council defectors from the Conservatives since the beginning of the year - a rate of more than one a week. It has also taken councillors off the several Liberal Democrats and some independent parties.

However, Nigel Farage, the Ukip leader, has been attracting crowds of hundreds of people on his "Common Sense" tour of market towns across Britain.
Cllr Peter Reeve, Ukip local government spokesman said: "There is no longer anywhere in the country where a Ukip vote fails to make a difference. We are winning councillors through our ideas and winning seats through our hard work." //

With the right wing vote splitting, do you think Labour will get a landslide of new councillors in May?

[emmie]

they are not always popular as you say, but there's a long way to go.

[Gromit]

Cameron has promised an EU in or out election after the next election if the Conservatives win.

Yet Lbour are 10 points clear in the Polls which would give them a decent majority.

Em10, had you forgotten the promise or do you not believe it?

[mikey4444]

Sqad and everyone else...see Gromit's post above and even em10's

Unless something really substantial happens before about this time in 2015, Cameron is out of a job. Not just out of Number 10, but out of the onerous task of being Leader of the Tories, because when he loses the next Election, he won't last more than a few days, even hours in the post. Other parties take their time with lame-duck Leaders, the Tories never do.

Well, they did with Mer Mer Major Bumble of course but they learned their lesson then and its doubtful if they were to make the same mistake again.

[emmie]

when is the election again???

[emmie]

The next United Kingdom general election will be the election to the 56th parliament of the United Kingdom. The terms of the Fixed-term Parliaments Act 2011 mandate that the election will be held on 7 May 2015 (except in the event of a collapse of government or a two-thirds majority of MPs voting for an early election,

so are you expecting us to believe that the lead Labour currently hold will see them win in two years time...

[mikey4444]

em10...I don't understand. Why would the Labour lead go down this side of an election ?

The Tories hold all the fiscal cards because they control the Treasury and their recent announcements on welfare and taxation is the main cause of their problem ! Unless they reverse all their policies in the next two years, they aren't really in a position to improve their lot with the public. And that is unlikely to say the least.

Now you may agree with the Tory polices or not, and I don't but the British people generally don't either, hence the Poll results. Even YOU think that Labour is likely to win in 2015, as you so eloquently said in your recent post of 16.08 today...a reminder ====

"and i can see Miliband taking the PM's job next time around"

So if Cameron is so popular, and Labour so hopeless, why are the Tories so far behind in the Polls ? If they were doing so terribly well, wouldn't they be at least level with Labour or even ahead ? Just a teeny weeny bit ?

If we use the YouGov/Sunday Times polls, thoughtfully provided by Gromit above, you have to go back to just before Xmas 2010 before you can find a Poll that gives the Tories a lead over Labour, and that was only 2%. Since then the situation has got steadily worse for them. The Labour lead is solidifying at an average of 11%.

And UKIP wasn't a great danger to the Tories back in 2010. The Chief Frog in the Mad Box of Frogs was concentrating in getter better after his crash in a light plane. But he has got his act together now. Cameron is terrified of UKIP !

So where does Cameron look for his silver lining ?

Somewhere over the rainbow perhaps !

[Gromit]

Rather like the SDP was responsible for Labour losing two elections, well UKiP will do the same to the Tories.

[mikey4444]

You are right Gromit...I had forgotten all about the SDP. Most of them were pillocks of course, and they should have stayed in the Labour party, not wandered off willy nilly and formed an ultimately useless new party. Labour would not have been in the wilderness for many years if the SDP wasn't invented. But Shirley Williams was quite nice I thought. I met her once when I up at Keele University. She was terribly chatty and her Mums book was wonderful ( Testament of Youth)

Of course UKIP is only BNP-lite and I don't want to over-egg the pudding, but we underestimate them at our peril. I personally think that they won't gain any seats in 2015. Maybe a couple perhaps, but no more.

The problem with the ultra-right in Europe is that they on the rise everywhere. In France and Italy they are already a concern, and look at Greece...almost in Government. In the newly democratised Baltic states they are making their presence felt as well. The history of the rise of Fascism isn't just all about that ghastly little Austrian Corporal. Holland had its own Nazi party, that helped the Germans after Holland fell ( The NSB )
Croatia had a particularly nasty Nazi party called the NDH. This pattern was repeated all over Europe. Even Britain flirted with Fascism, under Mosley.

So we need to keep an eye on these people, because if we don't we face being overrun with them again.

A great hero of mine is Nye Bevan. He famously made the following statement about the Tories, but we could easily transpose it to include even less pleasant politics ::

"The Tories are like rats you know...you think you have got rid of them but they always come back ! "

[emmie]

that wasn't eloquent, that was a statement, i can't actually see Cameron holding on to the job, nor the Tories winning next time, however as i keep on saying a week is a long time in politics, never say never.
The last person i want to see is Ed Miliband as PM, the last party i want to get back into power are Labour, but we shall have to wait and see.

[emmie]

because it's two fluffing years away, does every party hold on to a lead, and keep it, do polls lie, not tell the full story, do the electorate sometime reconsider their choices, of course they do. Unless it all goes pear shaped any day soon, we have to hold out till the next general election. The local elections will be in May, let us see also what comes out of that. And the only reason that Labour are in front is because the coalition are not popular, are making harsh, hard decisions, and many don't like it, what's new about that. But if Labour can tell the electorate, which includes me and you what they propose to do about the economy, immigration, EU, outline policies, then maybe i will listen, but they don't. bug eyed Ed Balls was positively apoplectic on tv yesterday, ranting and raving, but with no agenda, no way to solve the current problems, so until they do, let's not second guess who will win. I think Cameron is unpopular with his own party and with the core voters, but for the time being is it who they have.

[emmie]

we should have done the decent thing and hanged Moseley, i am not one for hanging as a rule, but that was war time, and he was a traitor.

[annieigma]

I think the tories will let dave take all the flack up to a few months before the next general election, then oust him and put Boris at the top, with promises of better things to come. they will probably then win.

[emmie]

i honestly don't think they would do that, Boris is popular, but i can't see the party replacing Cameron with him.

[annieigma]

You are probably right em, the tories want to be seen as the sensible party, and as popular as boris would be, they may not be able to look sensible for too long.

[mikey4444]

em10...do I have you right ? You say that you think it highly likely that Labour will win the next Election, but you hold out a slight chance that the Polls will change in the next 26 months and leave the Tories in the lead just in time to win ?

Well, who knows, you could be right and I suggest a truce on this issue !

annieigma has raised an intriguing point though...the dreaded Boris effect !

She may be right. After all, with the exception of Major, the Tories have never been know to suffer fools gladly. It could well be that they see the error of their ways and ditch Cameron when they see that he can't win. But time is running out.

Beware of Boris though. All that head scratching and buffoonery hides a very bright man, who knows that he is going places. But I think he probably realises that now isn't his time. He is young and in a very important, high profile job already, so there is no hurry. He probably realises that if and when Labour win in 2015, they won't be in power for too long, certainly not as long as they were when they kicked out Major.

So there is still plenty of time for him "to emerge" as Tory leaders were said to do years ago. The grey suits will eventually win out.

So truce ems ?

[emmie]

all i am saying is no one would put a punt on a horse 2 years before the race, you do that shortly before.

[brionon]

It's the Crisis-Right Wing idiots are advancing everywhere in Europe !!

[FredPuli43]

Didn't realise that UKIP are our second party in the European Parliament. The Tories have 27 seats, UKIP have 13. Now there's an argument against proportional representation.