The Wisdom Of Crowds?

[Kromovaracun]

Was interested to see the following article in The Independent:

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/british-public-wrong-about-nearly-everything-survey-shows-8697821.html

It seems that the British public actually tends to believe grossly inaccurate things about their society compared to the evidence available. These findings are supported by an earlier survey commissioned by the TUC and carried out by Ipsos-Mori:

http://www.politics.co.uk/news/2013/01/04/benefits-those-who-know-least-oppose-them-the-most

//On average people think that 41% of the entire welfare budget goes on benefits to unemployed people, while the true figure is three per cent.

On average people think that 27% of the welfare budget is claimed fraudulently, while the government's own figure is 0.7%.

On average people think that almost half the people (48%) who claim Jobseeker's Allowance go on to claim it for more than a year, while the true figure is 27.8%.

On average people think that an unemployed couple with two school-age children would get £147 in Jobseeker's Allowance - more than 30% higher than the £111.45 they would actually receive - a £35 over-calculation.

Only 21% of people think that this family with two school-age children would be better off if one of the unemployed parents got a 30 hour a week minimum wage job, even though they would actually end up £138 a week better off. Even those who thought they would be better off only thought on average they would gain by £59.//


Do ABers believe this evidence, or should we continue to place more trust in the 'man on the street' than on evidence deriving from research?

[emmie]

on certain issues i trust my own eyes, ears and judgement, but i suspect there are matters which get blown out of proportion,

[Quizmonster]

This should be compulsory reading for the right-wingers here on AB who constantly propagate the utterly wrong views on benefits outlined above. However, I somehow doubt that they'll get the message.

[emmie]

or the left wingers on here who bang on about how everything is hunky dory, and that nothing is wrong in Britain at all.

[Old_Geezer]

I think, if asked, most folk would admit to not knowing. It is only when a canvasser type insists they opt for one range/figure or another they opt for the wrong one. I'm unsure one should make sweeping statements of folk believing the wrong thing.

[Quoi]

and theres also the deliberate misinformation fed to us by one political party or another to suit their own purposes.

No wonder people get it wrong sometimes.

[emmie]

a phone snapshot of over 1 thousand people, if you took a survey of another thousand, in the street say, you may well get a different response, who knows.

[Sharingan]

I had this exact argument last night with some ' anti- Europe' folk who had anything with Europe in the title all mixed up together in their heads to be one big glob of something they were happy to dislike. I don't care how outlandish soemone's ideas are as long as they do actually have some factual basis, but some people will happily sit there and just scream that black is white because they think so, despite inconvenient things like evidence and facts to the contrary. Not sure you'll ever change that.

[Gromit]

You cannot really blame the man in the street. He is bombarded with disinformation and newspapers and politicians with an agenda promote things way beyond the scale of a problem. Politicians also do it to distract from other, more serious failings.

The man in the street should not have to research and find true figures or put things into context.

Some of us on here are constantly correcting Daily Mail ommissions or pointing out that shocking figures really haven't changed in 50 years.

It is still a mystery to me though, why people do take things the read in national newspapers at face value and repeat it unquestioningly.

Not sure who is pandering to who. Are the newspapers feeding to our prejudices, or are they leading our prejudices?

[naomi24]

I’m wary of ‘statistics’. Example: waiting times in A&E are down to 2 hours. (Figure a guess). Yippee! The reason? Because people are told to wait in adjoining areas of the hospital – and it happens. You can’t believe all you read – and that works both ways.

[jomifl]

The figures published in the tabloids are probably correct, the error lies in the labelling which is almost always misleading.

[emmie]

the one thing that the stats do say that in London white people are in the minority, going on the various ways to gather information, The Census for one, that we have more visitors than any other place in Britain, surprise surprise, some are simply common sense.

[Gromit]

I look forward to all the bolloc*ks that will be spouted today about a company founded in 1516, but the only hope for it is to be privatised and sold off cheaply, just so for the Government to squander the money, and hide a blackhole in the UK's accounts.

[emmie]

what;s the post office sell off if that is what you are on about has to do with this post.

[emmie]

this ?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/General_Post_Office

[Gromit]

// the one thing that the stats do say that in London white people are in the minority //

Except the stats say London is 59.8% white.

[sandyRoe]

I never thought much of the wisdom of crowds. When Pontius Pilate gave one a choice it opted for the release of Barabbas.

[emmie]

er no they don't, i checked. according to the census

[Gromit]

// what;s the post office sell off if that is what you are on about has to do with this post. //

Because it will let people display their General Ignorance, which is what this thread is about.

[emmie]

like yours, if it;s about the post office sell off. i should have added White British, is that better,

[jno]

uh, em, they don't just pick 1000 people at random, you know. That's not how it's done.

But thanks for dragging race into it - I was worried that nobody would do so, as aog seems to be away.