Dave In Denial Over Wythenshawe By-Election

[mikey4444]

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/feb/14/wythenshawe-byelection-cameron-denies-ukip-breakthrough

Similar piece in the Times, although I don't have access to its on-line version. In 2010, the Tories came 2nd, with 25.6% of the vote, but on Thursday they came in a poor third, with just 14.5%. And yet, to quote dave :::

"Ukip did not make the breakthrough it hoped for in the Wythenshawe and Sale East by-election even though the Conservatives were pushed into third place "

UKIP went from 1405 votes and 3.4% in 2010, to 4301 and 18% less than 4 years later ! If that isn't making a breakthrough, then what is ?

According to the local Conservative Association, Stephen Woods, Conservative Central Office imposed a candidate on them, who had zero political experience and he spent most of the time talking about dog poo.

When is dave going to realise that unless he does something pretty quick, voters in places like Wythenshawe are going to be deserting the Tories in droves, in favour of UKIP, thus making a Labour victory more certain in 2015 ?

[emmie]

from the link

The result was even more damaging for the Liberal Democrats, who lost their deposit for the eighth time in a contest this parliament.

[TWR]

It's the begining of the end for him & his Caring mob Mick, I will not be sorry for to see the back of these basds after what they did to Remply.

[TWR]

Do you mean the Sheep Emmie?

[mikey4444]

Indeed emmie but they are a spent force in British politics, at least for the time being. Its dave's apparent denial I can't understand.

[emmie]

don't count your chickens just yet, we are a year away from an election

[emmie]

i will say this again, boring i know, that a week is a long time in politics, the best argument for not counting ones chickens just look what happened to Neil Kinnock, nothing is ever a lock in, a done deal, the Lib dems are a waste of time, so it should be a shoot out with Tory/labour,

[jackthehat]

Labour hold 'Labour seat' but with a diminished number of votes........

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wythenshawe_and_Sale_East_%28UK_Parliament_constituency%29

[mikey4444]

I am with you 100% there TWR. I used to work for BT and Remploy shared our Depot, here in Swansea. I used to see them coming out of their furniture-making building and it was like watching the walking wounded. They employed all sort of disabilities there. I got to know some of them and they were proud men, who were keen to be working and independent, rather than at home scrounging off the dole. What the Tories did to Remploy was bl00dy disgraceful and I will never forgive them.

[mikey4444]

I am certainly not counting any chickens I can assure you emmie. But I simply can't understand why dave is standing by and letting UKIP call the shots. One reason may be that there are enough "b'stards" ( Major's word, not mine) amongst Tory MPs, who secretly admire Farage and his motley crew. After all UKIP was initially formed as a kind of splinter group of Tories and Farage himself is an ex-Tory Party Member.

[emmie]

keep on knocking the Tories, but you should read this to get some facts straight

http://www.theguardian.com/society/2013/oct/30/remploy-factories-close-disabled-workers

[emmie]

as its the Guardian, suggest reading the whole piece and get to the bit about Peter Hain and then read on

[mikey4444]

Jack...you are correct but they acieved 55% of the popular vote. Nothing for Labour to worry whatsoever. dave is the one who should be losing sleep.

[jackthehat]

It seems that UKIP took a chunk out of both the Tory and the Labour vote......it seems a perfectly normal mid-term By-Election result.

[emmie]

Dave won't be losing any sleep, its still early days. besides do you really want Miliband leading the country.

[Gromit]

At Eastleigh they were also second, very close to winning the seat. I think that will be the pattern in the General Election. UKiP will take votes from all the major parties, but mainly from the Conservatives. They will finished second in a lot of constituencies and that result will decide who wins. I don't think they will have many, if any MPs in 14 months, so they will not be forming any coalition.

The problem for Dave is, a lot of his party and grassroots Conservative voters think UKiP has a better manifesto than the Conservative Party. How does he rebuff them without splitting his party or losing a load of votes? Can he do a deal with UKiP and what can he offer them? At the moment Dave seems clueless about what to do, and is playing wait and see.

If the Conservatives get hammered by UKiP in the European Elections, as many predict, he may be forced to actually do something.

[jno]

incidentally, mikey, I have found you a sign for your window

http://www.danceswithferrets.org/meeblog/wp-content/uploads/2014/02/DailMailFreeZone.jpg

[ToraToraTora]

come on mikey, you can do better that than, I can only give 4.5 on the GI for that one!

[mikey4444]

jno...I like it ! Where can I get one ?

[ichkeria]

Wythenshawe is a pretty meaningless result nationally. The Tories plainly didn't really try to put up a fight: they had a vicar in his twenties standing who campaigned on local issues. The LibDems also. They are plainly going to be killed in these by-elections as they are temporarily at least no longer the party of protest.
If anyone is in denial though it is the leader of UKIP, claiming that immigration is the issue voters most care about. If so, the people of Wythenshawe at least have an odd way of showing it. Second place sounds impressive but UKIP are plainly scarcely more relevant to working class voters in the north than Farage claims the Tories are.

[ToraToraTora]

did you read emmies link mikey?