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Farage says that if he doesn't win any seats in next years General Election, he will resign. All of the Polls agree that UKIP are unlikely to win any seats at all, so can we look forward to a Farage-free media soon ?
Farage says that if he doesn't win any seats in next years General Election, he will resign. All of the Polls agree that UKIP are unlikely to win any seats at all, so can we look forward to a Farage-free media soon ?
Answers
Ymb Not surprisingly I disagree with you. 1. The LibDem vote will not hold up, they will have half their present MPs after GE. 2. Most of the LibDem votes will go back to Labour, from whence they came. 3. UKiP will divide the right wing vote in a lot of seats. 4. In a few of those, it will lead to a Labour win. 5. UKiP could take a couple of seats from The Conservative
09:58 Mon 17th Mar 2014
Labour would have a better chance without Balls, in fact without him I suspect a landslide. But he is not a likable man, he is a bully and the press will have a field day with him.
The Tories should certainly be worried, and I suspect they are. But Dave, trying to be all things to all men is not addressing the issue. Will dissafected Tories vote UKIP, I doubt it like I doubt disaffected labour voters will. I suspect also the liberals may do better than we actually suspect. On reflection many liberals will realise that for the first time in years they have got some policies though, probably more than their fair share.
As I siad before though, how will Middle England be swayed?
It could be quite an interesting election, but on the other hand I strongly suspect low voter turnout which will be a shame.
The Tories should certainly be worried, and I suspect they are. But Dave, trying to be all things to all men is not addressing the issue. Will dissafected Tories vote UKIP, I doubt it like I doubt disaffected labour voters will. I suspect also the liberals may do better than we actually suspect. On reflection many liberals will realise that for the first time in years they have got some policies though, probably more than their fair share.
As I siad before though, how will Middle England be swayed?
It could be quite an interesting election, but on the other hand I strongly suspect low voter turnout which will be a shame.
It should be an interesting question. I would have some concerns about a low voter turnout as well, but this is the first time we have had a GE following the implementation of the fixed parliamentary term of 5 years. I don't know about you, but it has felt like a long time to me between elections, and that change itself may prompt a larger turnout.
And I also agree that during GEs, people tend to vote based around their tribal allegiances. It still looks like another coalition to me though - no outright majority for Labour, or the Tories.
And I also agree that during GEs, people tend to vote based around their tribal allegiances. It still looks like another coalition to me though - no outright majority for Labour, or the Tories.
This may be a truism but most people won't vote UKIP at all, no matter what they have voted for in the past. The latest Poll from YouGov clearly shows that 88% of people asked will not vote UKIP ::
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I will concede that there is room for doubt about who will win the next Election, but it won't be UKIP ! If they win one seat, then they will be on a par with the Greens, hardly a threatening position.
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I will concede that there is room for doubt about who will win the next Election, but it won't be UKIP ! If they win one seat, then they will be on a par with the Greens, hardly a threatening position.
This from 19 May 2013
/// The ComRes poll for the Sunday Mirror and Independent on Sunday found support for Nigel Farage's party was up four per cent since the last survey a month ago, with Labour down three points to 35 per cent, the Conservatives down one to 29 per cent and the Liberal Democrats were unchanged on eight per cent. ///
New ComRes and Opinium polls 15 March 2014
/// The poll also asked about European election voting intentions and found toplines of CON 21%, LAB 28%, LDEM 8%, UKIP 30%. ///
/// The ComRes poll for the Sunday Mirror and Independent on Sunday found support for Nigel Farage's party was up four per cent since the last survey a month ago, with Labour down three points to 35 per cent, the Conservatives down one to 29 per cent and the Liberal Democrats were unchanged on eight per cent. ///
New ComRes and Opinium polls 15 March 2014
/// The poll also asked about European election voting intentions and found toplines of CON 21%, LAB 28%, LDEM 8%, UKIP 30%. ///
aog...the Euro elections coming up are largely irrelevant as regards to British domestic politics is concerned. The turn out is always low. I am not a UKIP supporter ( obviously ! ) but I can see some point in voting UKIP, in a General Election, as a UKIP Government would do all in its power to bring the UK out of the EEC. But I fail utterly to understand why anybody would vote UKIP in the Euro Elections ? What can UKIP achieve in Brussels ?
Ymb
Not surprisingly I disagree with you.
1. The LibDem vote will not hold up, they will have half their present MPs after GE.
2. Most of the LibDem votes will go back to Labour, from whence they came.
3. UKiP will divide the right wing vote in a lot of seats.
4. In a few of those, it will lead to a Labour win.
5. UKiP could take a couple of seats from The Conservatives.
6. Turnout will not be low at the next General Election.
7. Turnouts tend to be low when Governments are popular, Thatcher and Blair.
8. When Governments are as unpopular as the Coalition is, the voters come out to remove them.
Not surprisingly I disagree with you.
1. The LibDem vote will not hold up, they will have half their present MPs after GE.
2. Most of the LibDem votes will go back to Labour, from whence they came.
3. UKiP will divide the right wing vote in a lot of seats.
4. In a few of those, it will lead to a Labour win.
5. UKiP could take a couple of seats from The Conservatives.
6. Turnout will not be low at the next General Election.
7. Turnouts tend to be low when Governments are popular, Thatcher and Blair.
8. When Governments are as unpopular as the Coalition is, the voters come out to remove them.
Gromit
/// When Governments are as unpopular as the Coalition is, the voters come out to remove them. ///
Why do you assume that the Government are unpopular, that is part and parcel of being the government of the day, no matter what their politics, especially in the final days of being in power.
This government were forced to make unpopular decisions to try and get the country back on track after 13 disastrous Labour years of waste and inefficiency, and of course a world recession.
How different do you think your beloved Labour will approach things, will they reverse all those cuts in benefits, reinstate all those public service jobs etc etc?
Just tell us what?
/// When Governments are as unpopular as the Coalition is, the voters come out to remove them. ///
Why do you assume that the Government are unpopular, that is part and parcel of being the government of the day, no matter what their politics, especially in the final days of being in power.
This government were forced to make unpopular decisions to try and get the country back on track after 13 disastrous Labour years of waste and inefficiency, and of course a world recession.
How different do you think your beloved Labour will approach things, will they reverse all those cuts in benefits, reinstate all those public service jobs etc etc?
Just tell us what?
AOG,
Maybe you will understand turnout if I give you the figures...
1997 - Major removed - turnout 71.4% (turnout high)
2001 - Blair returned - turnout 59.4% (turnout low)
2005 - Blair returned - turnout 61.4% (turnout low but risen)
2010 - Brown removed - 65.1% (turnout high)
Unpopular Governments are removed on a high turnout.
Popular Governments are returned on a lower turnout.
There is nothing I can do to counter your delusion that the Coalition are popular. They are not. Turnout will be higher at the next election than 2010.
Maybe you will understand turnout if I give you the figures...
1997 - Major removed - turnout 71.4% (turnout high)
2001 - Blair returned - turnout 59.4% (turnout low)
2005 - Blair returned - turnout 61.4% (turnout low but risen)
2010 - Brown removed - 65.1% (turnout high)
Unpopular Governments are removed on a high turnout.
Popular Governments are returned on a lower turnout.
There is nothing I can do to counter your delusion that the Coalition are popular. They are not. Turnout will be higher at the next election than 2010.
/// What can UKIP achieve in Brussels ?
It would give us a voice instead of all the nodding puppets we now have. ///
But Ukip is in Brussels already: 13 seats in the European Parliament, as I recall, including Farage. So you have a voice. And yet what have they achieved, beyond claiming expenses? Nothing that I can see.
Do you think they should be judged on their record, as other parties are? How well do you think they're doing?
It would give us a voice instead of all the nodding puppets we now have. ///
But Ukip is in Brussels already: 13 seats in the European Parliament, as I recall, including Farage. So you have a voice. And yet what have they achieved, beyond claiming expenses? Nothing that I can see.
Do you think they should be judged on their record, as other parties are? How well do you think they're doing?
"Why do you assume that the Government are unpopular, that is part and parcel of being the government of the day."
Or:
"It doesn't matter who you vote for, the government always get in"
I think this coalition will suffer in the way that Gromit describes. They've done some magnificent things - but also a lot of silly ideological fiddling with the NHS and Education. If they'd stuck to things like increasing the tax threshold at the bottom and applying capital gains tax they'd be in a better position for re-election.
Maybe they ran out of good stuff to do?
The best thing this coalition could have done for themselves is prove that labour are irrelevant. Sadly the public sector worker attacks (the tone from No.10 is nasty, even if the policies are well meaning) have scared NHS/Education staff and their relatives back towards the usual comforts that a Labour government could bring.
Or:
"It doesn't matter who you vote for, the government always get in"
I think this coalition will suffer in the way that Gromit describes. They've done some magnificent things - but also a lot of silly ideological fiddling with the NHS and Education. If they'd stuck to things like increasing the tax threshold at the bottom and applying capital gains tax they'd be in a better position for re-election.
Maybe they ran out of good stuff to do?
The best thing this coalition could have done for themselves is prove that labour are irrelevant. Sadly the public sector worker attacks (the tone from No.10 is nasty, even if the policies are well meaning) have scared NHS/Education staff and their relatives back towards the usual comforts that a Labour government could bring.
Ed...A good indicator of how unpopular this government is might be found in the Poll ratings of both the Tories and the LibDems. Labour has been consistently ahead in all Polls since within a few months of the 2010 Election. I hear everything you say about this Government's policies and performances but if they were popular, why aren't they ahead of the only Party that can beat them in May 2015 ? This is the evidence ::::
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If it was the odd Poll that gave this story, I would take it with a pince of salt. But there have been hundreds of Polls since 2010 and they all tell the same story.
Things can change of course, but there is only just about 12-13 months to go before the next General Election, and if the Tories were popular I would have expected to see some improvement in their performance. It has yet to manifest itself.
http://
If it was the odd Poll that gave this story, I would take it with a pince of salt. But there have been hundreds of Polls since 2010 and they all tell the same story.
Things can change of course, but there is only just about 12-13 months to go before the next General Election, and if the Tories were popular I would have expected to see some improvement in their performance. It has yet to manifest itself.
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