Newark

[Farriercm]

Will Boris throw his hat in the ring ,at the Newark Bye Election?.

[Tilly2]

Newark in Notts?

[jno]

should really be Newark New Jersey as he is American-born

[sandyRoe]

If he's sense he'll wait until after the general election. If the Tories need a new leader he can present himself as a candidate unsullied by the recent debacle.

[factor-fiction]

I doubt it- has it been suggested? There is a suggestion that Nigel Farage may stand

[sandyRoe]

Is the present incumbent resigning?

[Jomlett]

Yes... MP Patrick Mercer resigns Commons seat in wake of lobbying allegations http://gu.com/p/3zz23/tw via @guardian

[sandyRoe]

By resigning has he done the party he served one final disservice?

[Jomlett]

Well the by-election will be after the Local/Euro elections so Boris and/or Farage might risk it, but the tories will not be thanking Patrick Mercer.

[Gromit]

And would he beat Farage?

[Jomlett]

I'm off to Paddy Power!

[Farriercm]

Good Question Gromit, Wonder what the odds are?.

[treetops68]

Could it be "Bye-Bye Boris" if he does?

[ToraToraTora]

No way Boris will touch this, Farage may though.

[Gromit]

Second tome today I'm agreeing completely with Tora.

i'll go for a lie down.

[sandyRoe]

Farage must be thinking he'd have a great chance there. In the past we've seen the electorate in by-elections lay aside traditional allegiances as a form of protest vote.

[venator]

UKIP is another of the "NONE OF THESE" protest parties, just the same as the Lib Dems last time.

If they get a good showing in the Euro election, it will be a good message, but in the Parliamentary election, they just aren;t credible

[jno]

bye-elections don't play by the usual rules, though.

[mikey4444]

More importantly, will Farage stand in this by-election ? Farage and UKIP are very unpredictable in everything that they do but it may not be the best seat for Farage to make his entry into Westminster. See this link for all the recent election results for Newark :::

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Newark_(UK_Parliament_constituency)

As can be seen, UKIP have failed badly in the last two elections in this constituency. According to The Today program this morning, recent boundary changes have made this an even more safe Tory seat than it was today, so it would appear that Labour have a reduced chance of winning. For UKIP to win in Newark it would need to go from the 3.8% that it achieved in 2010, to near or over 50%...not completely unprecedented but a very rare event indeed.

Farage has an important decision to make today. If he stands, and loses, it would put his chances of UKIP's success in 2015 back considerably. But if he stands and wins, it would give UKIP the boost in credibility that the party so badly needs.

If Boris decides to stand as well, then all bets are off !

[Farriercm]

Think Boris will sit this one out, just think of the Shame, and Humiliation If Boris did loose against Farage, ----- it could happen? Is Newark a Safe Con Seat?, if so this would make it even Worse . I do not think even Boris will risk this one. That is if they both throw hats into ring?

[mikey4444]

My mouth waters at the prospect of a by-election battle between Boris and Farage !