Stop Press...farage Isn't Going To Stand In Newark !

[mikey4444]

Just heard on the radio...he isn't going to stand after all !

Seems a sensible decision to me.

[youngmafbog]

If I was in his position I dont think I would fight a massive Tory(or any other party) majority.

He is currently riding high, so no point in taking the risk.

[scooping]

Doesn;'t it make him look bit chicken?

[naomi24]

Seems a sensible decision. Have a link.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-27216172

[Farriercm]

That means that Boris might, now that he would stand a better chance of getting elected.

[ladybirder]

Good call by Farage I would say.

[jomifl]

He doesn't want to lose his euromillions....

[Farriercm]

Think Farage has just Bottled it.

[scooping]

Gaff by Farage saying yesterday he wasn't sure whether Newark was 'the right seat for him'. Does he think he's in a car showroom, picking what he fancies?

[joggerjayne]

fraidy cat, fraidy cat, fraidy cat ...

[ToraToraTora]

I thought he might stand, and with a good chance of winning but as he said on News24 this morning, he is not particularly associated with the area and would correctly be seen as an opportunist so he has decided to concentrate on the EU elections. "Bottled" it farrier! PMSL, how wonderful it must be to inhabit your universe with your legendary reasoning power.

[Gromit]

It would be a distraction to the European Election campaign which should give UKiP some immediate success.

The time to stand for Parliament for Farage is at the General Election where he can pick a more vulnerable Tory seat.

But I am sure UKiP will feild a candidate at Newark who could win it. That would be embarrassing for Farage. It would be another Eastleigh where he chickened out and UKiP only narrowly came second. If UKiP do very well in this bye election then he could be accused of bottling out again.

If Farage definitely isn't standing, it would make it more likely that Boris would. But my guess is that he won't. Better to have no part in this Government before it gets trounced at a general election. Then rebuild in Oppisition.

[jomifl]

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/apr/29/10-good-reasons-not-vote-ukip-nigel-farage-europe

[Gromit]

Just looked how Newark voted at the last election.

Conservative 27,590
Labour. 11,438
Liberal Democrat 10,246
UKIP 1,954

I reckon it is a conservative hold. it is a big majority.

But if UKiP split the Conservative vote it could be close. This will be an interesting test of how much damage a UKiP candidate can inflict on a Conservative one.

UKiP splitting the Conservative vote could benefit Labour, especially if the LibDem vote collapses (as it has in recent bye elections) and Labour takes those votes.

The LibDems will be bounced to 4th and probably lose their deposit again.

It looks like an interesting one.

[youngmafbog]

Exactly, how can anyone say he bottled it given those figures?

IMO he would have been foolish to attempt it and loose. And without doubt the very same people on here would be yelling 'opportunist' if he had stood.

Politics is a game, choose your moment wrong and you are pretty much finished.

[anotheoldgit]

scooping

/// Gaff by Farage saying yesterday he wasn't sure whether Newark was 'the right seat for him'. Does he think he's in a car showroom, picking what he fancies? ///

Is he any different from all other politicians who will pick safe seats, if given a chance?

Yes I know that it is a disappointment for the media, the other parties and some on here, who would have loved ridiculing him if he had happened to lose.

[Gromit]

The Eastleigh constituency is different from here, but if the 'Eastleigh Effect' was applied in Newark, the figures would be interesting.

At Eastleigh the conservative vote halved going from 21,000 to 10,000. The LibDem vote nearly halved from 24,000 to 13,000. Labours vote dropped by a fifth from 5,000 to 4,000. UKiP was the beneficery gaining 10,000 votes.

Apply those changes to Newark would see something like....

Conservative 14,000
UKIP 12,000
Labour. 10,000
Liberal Democrat 5,000

However that does not allow for the change in turnout (or the extra candidates standing) which may lower the figures. Still, it could be close.

[brionon]

The BBC found this SO important this morning. BBC the voice of UKIP ?

[jomifl]

aog, farage doesn't have to lose to be ridiculed, a public school educated banker who pretends to be the bloke down the pub is pretty ridiculous.

[mikey4444]

Lets face facts here. The reason that he didn't stand is because he didn't think he had much of a chance to win. He has already faced one defeat in a Westminster election.... losing again wouldn't have done him or his Party any good at all.

[Gromit]

To overturn a 16,000 majority is a tall order. Farage has shown good sense not to stand. however, a UKiP bounce after the Euro result could flook it to UKiP.

Farage needs a marginal Conservative seat with a Liberal in second place. My guess is that he already knows which seat he will be standing for a the General election.