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No NJ, you are pretty much on the button ! I too forecasted that the coalition government of 2010 would descend into the shambles that it has. To be honest, it is taking nothing away from your or my intellect to have foreseen this...it was obvious to anybody if they had but thought about it.
The great danger, as you say, is that votes for Labour and the Tories will be somewhat depleted by the votes that people waste on UKIP. It will affect the Tories more than Labour, which may ensure that a Tory defeat is even more likely than at present. If the Tories are defeated, then a Labour victory, perhaps with the aid of A N Other will then proceed. So another 5 years of omni-shambles is on the horizon
But my central theme has always been that UKIP cannot and will not form the next Government at Westminster. They may get a seat or two but even that is not expected by the Polling organisations or the Bookies, who are seldom wrong.
I don't know if you mix with ordinary working-class people but I do on a daily basis and I am hearing that lots will be voting UKIP in May 2015. But none of those people have any idea whatsoever what else UKIP appear to be standing for, apart from their constant whinging about racist matters.
The blind leading the blind it would seem.