Latest Poll Results From Yougov

[mikey4444]

These are the latest, a couple of days apart ::

http://yougov.co.uk/news/2014/05/30/update-labour-lead-7/

and

http://yougov.co.uk/news/2014/06/01/update-labour-lead-3/

Still no sign of dave making much headway here. Poor LibDems in a declining spiral.

[ToraToraTora]

Kinnochio holding a victory party the day before the election in 1992 didn't help! The public hate to be taken for granted.

[Sqad]

Gromit...when she was appointed, we didn't know how long she would last, but we did know her preferences for Private Health care in the UK.

Our house has to be put on order to combat the eventuality of kicking private medicine out of the NHS. It did remain but I am not sure what part our efforts played, but then ...on the horizon......was Neil Kinnock and that was my point really.

[Gromit]

Sqad
The difference to 1992 is that there is a fourth party that may take votes from the Conservatives. The state of UKiP in a years time will determine if the Vonsrtvatives can pull off another shock election win.

[Sqad]

Gromit...exactly.

My post was purely a "blast from the past."

[Gromit]

Vonsrtvatives

Wow, that is one hell of a typo :-/

[DrFilth]

Gromit computer error you may have the same make and model as me

[naomi24]

Mikey, knowing that these polls are often so inaccurate, what's the point of following them so rigidly - and more to the point, of taking them so seriously? Just wondering.

[mikey4444]

Naomi...as I never cease to point out, they may indeed be inaccurate, but they have been inaccurate in the same way for the last 4 years. If they were so unreliable, wouldn't that unreliability have the Tories ahead, as much as it has had Labour ahead. Surely inaccuracy can work both ways can't it ?

Sorry, just trying to be logical and rational here !

[naomi24]

//Surely inaccuracy can work both ways can't it ?//

Inaccuracy can work in lots of ways, but it's neither rational nor logical to set store by anything you know to be inaccurate. Just saying.

[ChillDoubt]

Naomi...as I never cease to point out, they may indeed be inaccurate, but they have been inaccurate in the same way for the last 4 years.
--------------------
So why bother with this groundhog day-esque farce?
None of the polls got anywhere near what subsequently transpired in the Euro elections i.e. the cosmic shift towards UKIP.

[mikey4444]

Can I remind you chilli, that the turnout for the Euro elections was under half of what is considered normal at a General Election. If millions of people didn't vote, then perhaps we shouldn't draw too much from the results.

[Gromit]

Mikey
You posted a poll two days before the Euro election predicting a Labour win. It made you look silly when they lost. You are just setting yourself up for a fall, giving any credence to long range predictions.

[mikey4444]

I just want someone to tell me why, if Labour are so ghastly, they are ahead in almost every Poll. Right wingers on AB far outstrip left wingers, so surely there is someone who can have a stab at this question.

[Gromit]

The obvious answer is that Labour are not ghastly. A very similar amount of people say they will vote Labour as those who say they will vote Conservative. Meanwhile a lot of other people haven't yet decided.

If the polls showed a 15 point Labour lead then their is a good chance Labour will win. If the polls show just a 1 point or 3 point lead then there is less certainty that it will be correct. They normally sample little more than 1,000 people, and then scale that up to the 45 million elligible to vote. A small error in the original sample will be magnified many times a lead to a wrong estimate.

[mikey4444]

Thanks very much Gromit...a good stab, which others have failed to do. Just a couple small points.

YouGovs surveys are always about 2000 people, not 1000, and only an average of 14% are "don't knows"

The new element for next May will be the UKIP vote, as they really weren't significant in any way in 2010. All the evidence shows that while they have stolen some votes from Labour, it is the Tories who are likely to lose out the most. That is, of course, if the UKIP vote holds up, and I for one don't think it will. Even UKIP themselves predict that only half of their vote will stay with them in 2015, which seriously discounts the effect that they will have.

The Electoral Calculus website has now updated ::

http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/homepage.html

This time last month, it showed Labour with a 40 seat majority next May, so
its appears to be going down. It shows that the probability of Labour having an outright majority has come down from 63% to 57%, but interestingly, it still shows UKIP with zero seats, so much for Farage's earthquake...more local Councillors, and more of its MEPs on the Euro gravy train, but still no representation at Westminster.

[youngmafbog]

You love the word ghastly too :-)

[mikey4444]

Its one of my favourite words ymb ! Whats your favourite word...no swear words now !

[anotheoldgit]

mikey4444

/// Right wingers on AB far outstrip left wingers, ///

You have got to be joking surely?

Just because some disagree with you personally doesn't necessarily mean they are right wingers.

[Gromit]

AOG

My perception is that it is fairly even between left and right ABers.

The loss of Jake-the-Peg from the left side mean't that for a time there was more right posters, but we new members, who have brought he balance back.

[tonyav]

Left or Right, but no middle then.