Global Warming/Forest Fires in Portugal.

[nedflanders]

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/sci/tech/4176988.stm

Does everyone believe this scaremongering rubbish?  Big story headlines to scare us but if you actually read the detail !

[Loosehead]

Climate change is a reality, that is part of the climate cycle of the planet. It is however very little to do with mankind. The Eco wally's mostly do not undersatand the long carbon cycle and therefore think mankind can make a difference to climate by some tenuois carbon mantra's. 97% of carbon at any one time is locked in the Earth systems, mankind can control the other 3%. We should of course pollute less and I'm all for controlling emissions but please can we get away from the ridiuclous notion that mankind can effect climate change.

The earth continually goes through climate change and indeed it has resulted in restructuring life on earth. Watch the excellent National Geographic program "Earth Story" for a good description of what has happenned up to now and for an eye openner on how totally insignificant we are.

[jno]

the headline asks a question. The story answers it (answer: we don't know yet). What's scaremongering about that?

You could say this question is scaremongering: It's all the media's fault! Reporters are all out to get us! Never trust the BBC, it's all a conspiracy!!!

[nedflanders]

Yes and Kyoto will reduce the earths temperature by 0.04�c by 2100 if we acheive it which we wont! Woohoo that will make such a difference! What I am saying jno is that the mass public is ill informed by the scaremongering media and scientists looking for research grants.  If we cant predict the weather 2 weeks in advance what chance do we have of predicting it in 100 years time? 

[jake-the-peg]

If human activity is so inconsequential why when so many of the world's aircraft were grounded after September 11th was there such a sudden significant change in measured temperatures?

You say Kyoto's effect would be 0.04 degrees, in the 3 days post 9-11 there was over a full degree measured, not predicted but measured!

We may not know exactly how our activity changes climate but that is concrete evidence that it does.

[nedflanders]

http://www.nationalcenter.org/KyotoQuestionsAnswers.html

http://archives.cnn.com/2002/TECH/science/08/07/contrails.climate/

I accept your point jake but this is only a temperature variation not a nett decrease in temperature.  If we grounded every aircraft in the world it would not reduce the worlds temperature by 1�C.

[jake-the-peg]

The point is that humal activity can have an appreciable affect on climate.

I also would believe nothing that comes out of the National center for public policy research.

Check them out on sourcewatch:

http://www.sourcewatch.org/index.php?title=National_Center_for_Public_Policy_Research

They're not exactly what you'd call impartial

[Loosehead]

Jake, where was this Degree measured? Is it measured there each day? source of info needed here I think. Are you seriously saying that ground aircraft has anoticable effect of the temperature at some location or other?? I mean take the forset fires in Portugal at the moment, a natural phenomenon throughout earth history are you saying that they are not putting out more heat than all the planes at the moment? What about the on/off volcanoes? What about the 1001 source of heat and cold throughout the world? If some arbitrary measure of temp for 1 day related to a dubious statement that all planes where grouded is all you need for concrete proof, well er...... Tell you what can you help me get some money out of Nigeria........

[jake-the-peg]

No this was serious work, ironically it actually works in the opposite direction to global warming and is generally known as global dimming. there was a pretty good horizon documentry on it, there is a summary here: http://www.bbc.co.uk/pressoffice/pressreleases/stories/2005/01_january/13/horizon.shtml

And yes I can help you to get money out of Nigeria for details see here.

http://www.419eater.com/html/joe_eboh.htm

But you'll have to join my church and paint your chest!

[nedflanders]

I read the article Jake (the horizon one not the Nigeria one!).  The article (as all global warming statements do) uses a lot of use of the words "may" and "could" speculation, speculation and more speculation. The fact is we just dont know what the climate will do.  And all our theories are based upon guesses and no scientific fact.  Every piece of research that is done on the environment is tainted whether it done for big business or for environmental groups.  The media just love the stories that the environmental groups put out as it is easily sellable "global warming catastrophe looms" "severe climate change" sensationalist headlines with no scientific fact behind it !  Global temperatures have been rising for 150years and that is a scientific fact.  I have no doubt that we pollute the earth too much but we dont have a clue how much if any we are contributing to this trend.

[jake-the-peg]

You really should read the Nigeria one! it's a scream

To a certain extent I agree.

I would say we are pretty clearly in a period of climate change.

I think there is also enough evidence to say that human activity is capable of affecting climate.

What the proportion is is much more difficult. 

Trouble is at the moment we are forecasting increasing air transport and population rises etc. and that sure isn't helping.

It's not the sort of issue where we can just turn around to our children in 30 years and say "oops sorry". We do have to take it seriously.