Latest Electoralcalculus Poll, For Sqad, Ttt, Et Al

[mikey4444]

http://electoralcalculus.co.uk/homepage.html

Main changes from end of June are :

Con....now 257 seats, up from 249
Lab....now 345 seats, down from 349
Lib.....now 17 seats, down from 19
UkIP...still no seats at all.

Last month EC were predicting the possibility of a 63% chance of a Labour majority, now its 61%.

So little change.

[naomi24]

Hurrah!

[mikey4444]

dave must be thinking like Tesco this morning...Every little helps !

[naomi24]

Mikey, I imagine you get more excited about minor changes in all these meaningless polls than he does.

[mikey4444]

Don't be so po-faced naomi ! You responded to my post ! The EC update didn't happen until last night, and I am posting it now in response to TTT's post of 09:41 last Friday.

[naomi24]

Haaa! Po faced? Me? How very dare you!! I often cry 'hurrah' when you post a poll - regardless of the outcome. ;o)

[anotheoldgit]

Is this a personal thread between sqad and yourself, or can anyone join in?

[mikey4444]

OK Naomi...pax !

I post the EC at the start of every month. The site makes for interesting reading, especially the list of vulnerable seats ::

http://electoralcalculus.co.uk/gainloss.html

Note that UKIP are not predicted to take any vulnerable seats at all, despite all the flash and thunder at the time of the Euro Elections a few weeks ago. Also, most of the gains would seem to come to Labour, and the few Tory gains from the Libs.

In other words, dave is not winning the battle of wills with Labour. That is why dave should be concerned that he is unable to break the logjam, and hasn't been able to do so since soon after the 2010 Election. As a Labour voter, I would be happier if they were ahead by a larger margin, but if there were an Election this Thursday, then it would appear that Ed's missus would be in Number Ten, measuring up for new curtains on Friday morning.

[Svejk]

^god help us!

[emeritus]

Interesting article here Mikey

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/exclusive-ed-miliband-warned-of-ukip-threat-to-labour-9645347.html

[anotheoldgit]

mikey4444

How would you get your monthly fix if it wasn't for the polls?

I agree, a non-story. Now lets get on with the real news.

[mikey4444]

You are welcome to join in AOG, and anybody else as well ! My remarks to Sqad refer to a post over the weekend.

[factor-fiction]

The chart seems to suggest Labour need only 31% of the vote to get a majority whereas the Conservatives need around 36%. It looks as if even the gap in votes (which is narrowing) is closed Labour should get a majority

[factor-fiction]

That last sentence didn't come out a s I intended but I hope the meaning was clear

[Sqad]

Morning mikey?..phew! I have been waiting for those statistics all the weekend

Factor - Fiction has summed it up concisely.

[mikey4444]

Morning Sqad !

FF is right. If dave wants to remain in Number Ten, he needs to win the battle of wills with Labour and he shows no sign of much improvement, month on month. I repeat...if an election was held this Thursday, dave would return to the back benches.

[Orderlimit]

Based on a poll sampling 10,026 people?.

[anneasquith]

if dave wants to stay in no.10.............he may think about condemning Israel about the war crimes they continue to commit, ( not via a spokesman ), and condemning Israel does NOT mean a vote for hamas.

[Gromit]

// UkIP...still no seats at all. //

UKIP will win a couple of seats at most. But their presence in marginals is going to stir up things unlike any previous recent elections. It is not about them winning seats, it is about who they will take votes from. In marginals, the party that UKIP takes fewer votes from will win.

Elections get closer in the couple of weeks before polling day. Labour should be further ahead now if they are to win a working majority. By Polling day it will be neck and neck.

I expect a hung parliament.

[Gromit]

// if dave wants to stay in no.10... he may think about condemning Israel about the war crimes they continue to commit //

The massacre in Gaza will long be forgotten next May. It will make no difference then, just as Cameron's failure to put pressure on Israel has had no affect on polls now.

[ToraToraTora]

any idea how they work this out? I just can't see how 3points=100 seats yesterday and apparently 88 today! This EC lot sound a bit dodgy to me, especially given their general tardiness as pointed out by mikey. Labour may well beat the Tories next time but I don't think Ed has caprtured the imagination of the voting public so I don't see them getting 100 more seats and I don't see a clear majority.