How Will Years Of Bombing Of Iraq Going To Keep The British Peaople Safe?

[anotheoldgit]

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2770534/Parliament-debates-British-military-action-Iraq.html

/// He said the UK has a 'duty' to act and could not leave responsibility for keeping the British people safe to other countries. ///

If the British people were to be attacked from within, which other countries would bother?

/// 'Is there a threat to the British people? The answer is yes,' he said. 'ISIL has already murdered one British hostage and has threatened to murder two
more.' ///

Are these the British people Cameron is talking about, and not the whole body of British people who happen to live in the safe UK?

[naomi24]

sandyRoe, I don't know how many times it must be said before it sinks in, but I'll try again. The situation in Northern Ireland cannot be compared in any way whatsoever to what the world is facing - and must face - now.

[sandyRoe]

The best ISIS could hope for, from their point of view, would be terrorist attacks in the UK. They're never going to be mustering a fleet in France to launch an invasion of England.
Even their most optimistic supporters must know that a world where Islam is the only religion is a pipe dream. They would probably have been happy if they could have carved out a caliphate from parts of Syria and Iraq and then consolidated their hold on it.

[naomi24]

//Even their most optimistic supporters must know that a world where Islam is the only religion is a pipe dream.//

They don't.

[Svejk]

I doubt very much it will take years, aog. Its not as though we're fighting against the indigenous people. Doubt they have much support among the local people. Lets face it, who in their right minds is going to start a protest against them.
I'd be more worried about reprisals against local sunnis by their 'liberators'.

[Svejk]

sorry for interrupting. I was half-way through that post when I had to go somewhere. ;o)

[sandyRoe]

Naomi, can you really not see the similarities between what happened in NI and whats happening in the Middle East? NI was the Middle East writ small. The IRA drew support from the disaffected Catholic section of the population, ISIS from Sunnis who've seen the central government in Baghdad discriminating against them. The IRA used the Civil Rights MOvement to help get their campaign rolling and the Arab Spring, particularly the attempts to overthrow Assad, gave ISIS the toehold they needed.

[shoota]

But the aims of the IRA were limited to an Ireland, IS's are global and threaten us all.

[shoota]

Sorry, I meant to put 'an island'....

[shoota]

But same difference really..

[sandyRoe]

The furthest earlier militant Islamic incursions got were to the Pyrenees in the west and the gates of Vienna in the east.
ISIS have used the chaos in the Middle East to carve out a small area where they'll hold sway for a short time. With the weight of the West arrayed against them that won't be long.
If they launched terrorist attacks against western countries they could result in individual tragedies. But they wouldn't threaten the state itself.

[Kromovaracun]

"If you think not taking part will mean they will not do anything against us here in 'safe' UK you are very naive"

No, I don't think that.

The reason I think that intervening will not do anything for our security is that I think the collapse of the Iraqi state is a foregone conclusion. That will happen no matter what our actions are. Iraq as a failed state will be just as bad for our security as IS is now.

No matter what happens, and no matter what we do the UK is going to be at greater risk in the near future because of this. In my opinion, it is better to respond to this situation in that vein than suffer under any delusion that we can simply nip the situation in the bud and it will disappear.

[sevenOP]

Svejk, if you think eliminating ISIS in Iraq ( + even in Syria) will make the British people safe you are mistaken: the Taliban are just waiting to retake Afghanistan when Uncle Sam goes:
http://www.nytimes.com/2014/07/27/world/asia/taliban-making-military-gains-in-afghanistan.html?_r=0

Unless the job is done comprehensively ( and you read my views on how ) this is a battle with no expiry date:
http://www.tomdispatch.com/post/175898/tomgram%3A_peter_van_buren%2C_back_to_the_future_in_iraq/

Obama had some flashes of truth late into his United Nations annual address this week on dealing with the religious aspects, but still no mention of a root cause of this bedlam, viz Saudi ( his 'ally' ) exporting its Wahhabi jihadists.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xiI6crx4Z9k

[Svejk]

if this was a 'normal' civil war, I'd agree we should keep out of it. But this really is a special case. A very small group of mainly foreign 'people' imposing their will on others through sheer terror tactics.

[Kromovaracun]

Yes, and there's a very good reason the regional powers are doing nothing about it. Because they know we will. And once IS is removed, Iraq - which is effectively undefended because of the catastrophic collapse of its armed forces - will become a free-for-all between the various terror groups which are being sponsored by various middle eastern states.

They're the only "winners" here. The Iraqi people are, sadly, doomed to a failed state no matter what the outcome. If we get involved, we're just picking a fight we ultimately cannot win.

[jno]

I can only agree with Kromovaracun and sandyRoe. There's a reason we're going into a third Iraqi war: because we got nowhere with the first two. I've seen nothing to suggest our politicians or military have learnt anything from this. Maybe they've got a cunning plan from Field Marshal Baldric up their sleeves; it could hardly fail more than the ones we've tried so far.

Charging off to war because politicians want to appear to be Doing Something never works. As Kromo says, even if we win, we lose. Just like we "won" the last Iraq war.

[shoota]

It may not be a 'good' option but it is the only option.
What is the alternative? Let them continue lopping heads off at will?

[Svejk]

wouldn't disagree, that could well happen.

[jomifl]

Sandy, the muslim incursion into Europe was stopped at the battle of Poiters, a lot further north than the Pyrenees, in fact less than 200 miles from Le Havre.

[sandyRoe]

Thanks, Jomifl. I'll have to read up on that. It must have been one of the pivotal battles in European history yet it seems to have slipped under the radar. Well, my radar, anyway.

[anotheoldgit]

Regarding our safety it seems that the British people have nothing to worry about, so why are we prepared to risk lives and spend millions protecting a foreign country?

A couple of passages from the PM's speech:

/// We will always take whatever action is necessary to keep the British people safe here at home. Britain has some of the finest and most effective security and intelligence services anywhere in the world. We will always act with urgency where needed, as we did with the emergency data retention legislation which is already yielding results. And we’ve already taken a whole range of measures to keep our people safe. We are stopping suspects from travelling by seizing passports. We’re barring foreign nationals from re entering the UK. We’re depriving people of citizenship and we are legislating so we can prosecute people for all terrorist activity, even where that activity takes place overseas. ///

/// Britain is an open, tolerant and free nation. We are a country that backs people in every community, who want to work hard, make a contribution and build a life for themselves and their families. But we cannot stand by and allow our openness to be confused with a tolerance of extremism, or one that encourages different cultures to live separate lives and allows people to behave in ways that run completely counter to our values. Adhering to British values is not an option or a choice; it is a duty for those who live in these islands. And in the end it is only by standing up for these values that will defeat the extremism, protect our way of life and keep all our people safe. ///

https://www.gov.uk/government/speeches/threat-level-from-international-terrorism-raised-pm-press-conference

So what are the politicians frightened of, will ISIL be launching invasion barges to cross the Mediterranean, storming across Europe in their tanks, and then firing their guns across the Channel and bombing our South Coast towns to prepare the way for their invasion barges?