Polls

[lindapalmara]

I think this might be one for Mikey. I have never taken much notice of polls because I cant understand how asking a few hundred people can reflect the views and voting intentions of the whole country but this latest one in the Sunday Times in beyond me.

Voting intention: Labour 36% Conservative 31%
Who would you trust most: Cameron 22%. Milliband 18%

Now neither leader is going to step down, or swop parties so what's going on?

[Gromit]

You do not have the opportunity to vote for Cameron or Miliband, you have another representative of the Conservative or Labour Party.
The poll seems to ge saying more people want a Labour victory, even though its leader is slightly worse than the Conservatives leader.

When people are asked to vote they are assessing whether the Government has been any good. People vote for selfish reasons, how the Government's policies have affected them. They are adking themselves, "Do I personally feel better off than I did in 2010?" it seems that a majority don't feel better off and are prepared to send this Government packing (If the polls are to be believed).

[Obiter]

You do not say what the UKIP figure is. If it is more than 5% then Labour are in a minority.

[lindapalmara]

It's 10% Obiter for UKIP

[factor-fiction]

I don't think any polls produced by the main polling organisations ever cover just a few hundred people. A sample size of 1000 is usually considered good enough provided steps are taken to ensure it is representative, although sometimes a completely random sample can be used. Some use a sample of 2000 but the accuracy is only very slightly higher
This site may help explain things without getting bogged down in mathematics
http://www.britishpollingcouncil.org/questions.html#q8
You could look at it this way- to find the average (mean) height of an adult in the UK you would not need to measure every adult. If you chose a representative sample of 1000 adults and found their average height you would get an almost identical result to that obtained from a separate similar sized sample

[lindapalmara]

Oh and 4% for Libdems. Down the plug hole methinks!

[lindapalmara]

Ok, thanks FF

[Obiter]

So then, left 36%, right 41%. Puts a different perspective on things although I agree that first past the post will benefit Labour if these figures were replicated in a general election.

[Gromit]

If the LibDem vote collapses, then Labour can hope to capture the majority of those votes.

If UKIP prove credible, then they will take the majority of their votes from the Conservatives.

The 2015 General Election will be unusual and hard to predict.

[lindapalmara]

OMG I'm emigrating,,

[Farriercm]

You could always go back to Madrid?

[lindapalmara]

What are you talking about. Never been to Madrid.

[naomi24]

Farrier thinks he's being rude to you, Linda. He's talking nonsense as usual.

[mikey4444]

Gromit has it right here. The only people that can, and will vote for Miliband or dave are their constituents. Everybody else will only be voting for their Party of choice. In all political Polls, you are asked a simple question as to your voting intentions. The popularity of all the Leaders waxes and wanes, on a daily basis. The latest YouGov Poll puts Labour at 36% and the Tories at 31%. This has not changed very much for years.

Think what the gap would be if Miliband was replaced by someone more popular ? Ditto if dave was replaced !

Polls are highly accurate these days, and only recently were right on the button for the Scottish Independence referendum. Ignore Polls if you like but the Bookies all broadly agree as well.

[mikey4444]

Just to add. The Tories could win next years Election 8 months early, at 09:00 tomorrow morning, if dave were to resign and Boris replaced him.

They won't dare do that of course, anymore than they dared to ditch Major in the run-up to the 1997 Election, but the option is still open to them.

[Farriercm]

Linda, My post r/e Margaret Thatcher Plaza Madrid = Your reply,
9.34 Friday 26th Sept=There are lots of British yobs in Spain, you met a lot when you lived there.??? sorry about the comment Naomi made ,but I do not know who her dealer is.

[naomi24]

Farrier, you make a fool of yourself every time you put finger to keyboard.

[Farriercm]

LOL.

[lindapalmara]

Farrier. I once had a holiday villa on the Costas, for 5 years. We saw first hand how the rest of Europe disregard most of the EU rules whilst the UK strictly follow them. The NTional pastime,likeGreece, is avoiding tax. We went fully funding ourselves. We had to pay for hospital treatment, translators, had to pay taxes etc and for a year didn't have mains electricity Nd for 5 years didn't have mains water, just a hosepipe running up the street. I pull goon. No, if I emigrated now it wouldn't be within the EU, it would be Australia where my daughter lives, where there is managed immigration, accepting people with needed skills who are prepared to work hard and a health service that people pay into and economic migrants are sent back. We would not expect the state to give us anything.

[Farriercm]

Linda , as you know there are no benefits in Spain for immigrants.Only for people who have paid into the system, wish the UK would follow the same example. In Spain if you have put nothing into the system ,then you can not take out. Think we are now getting of the subject of your original post,
Think it is time we consulted the expert Naomi???

[lindapalmara]

Nothing changes the fact that Labour started the deluge of unchecked immigration, trying to create a new class of Labour voters, Labour gave them something for nothing, Labour signed the Lisbon Treaty and lots more. I dread living under that pernicious Nanny state again. I'm off!!