One For Mikey

[anotheoldgit]

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/oct/03/conservatives-lead-labour-opinion-poll

Oh dear what is happening, the Tories are now in the lead, and the conferences speeches are over, it's feet's on the doorsteps now.

[Quizmonster]

Oh dear, oh dear! If the 35/34 figures remain the same until next May, that'd mean another coalition. Well, the one we've got is falling apart at the seams, so which parties could it involve next time?

[Svejk]

it wont be the liberals, that's for sure.

[Apariah]

Either party would be stupid to go with a bunch of hand wringers again.

[Peter Pedant]

Mikey will say:

I dont know WHAT you are talking about !
Of course Labour will win ....

[youngmafbog]

Not much of a lead though is it, and just after a rabble rousing party conference no more than would be expected.

DC's problem is that people will sit back and think, yes that is what we want but you failed to deliver last time due to inviting Clegg to the table which we didnt vote for what is to say you will deliver this time?

[janbee]

Still 7 months to go until the election. Plenty time for the tories to dive again. As for the LIMPs.... bye bye Nicky !! It'll all get a bit messy and bitchy from here on in.

[Gromit]

This is bad news for Labour with just 7 months to go to an election.
However, a 1 point lead is unlikely to give the Conservatives a majority, so they may need to form at coalition with the LibDems if they have any left.

Curiously, despite this opinion poll, the Conservatives look like they are about to lose 2 seats to UKIP in the forthcoming by Elections. The last poll for Claction suggested UKIP could get double the number of votes than the Conservatives. Hardly General Election winning form.

[youngmafbog]

I dont see it as good news for either DC or Ed. Probably slightly worse for Ed as you would expect an opposition to be much further ahead.

Ed seems to be missing the open goals. The Coalition has been an unmitigated disaster, he should have capitalized on it more. I suspect his brother would have done. Also his decision to keep Balls as Chancellor is a poor one given Balls' standing in New labour and the resulting empty coffers at the end. Labour supporters will forget or forgive, Middle England, with no particular allegiances to any party will remember and it is they who will put a party in power.

I think we could be in for an interesting election, parties like UKIP and the Greens could do well especially with liberal votes to go somewhere.

[mikey4444]

YouGov had Labour 7 points ahead yesterday ::::

http://yougov.co.uk/news/2014/10/02/update-labour-lead-7/

I am still waiting for the monthly ElectoralCalculus website to update ::

http://electoralcalculus.co.uk/homepage.html

[mikey4444]

PPP...by the way, I am more than capable of speaking for myself !

This is the first Poll to put the Toris ahead, after 100's of Polls have put Labour in the lead, so I don't expect dave to be dancing for joy just yet, especially as he is on target to lose the two forthcoming by-elections.

[Svejk]

does anyone know which prominent Labour MP is about to switch to UKIP?

[Gromit]

Svejk,

Kate Hoey.

And 2 more Tories.

Expect them to jump after next Thursday's spectacular UKIP win in Clacton.

[andy-hughes]

QM - "Well, the one we've got is falling apart at the seams, so which parties could it involve next time?"

My money is firmly on The Tories and UKIP.

They couldn;t do any worse than the current bunch, which can be likened to a master's relatinship with his dog - each thinks he is the master, and other is the dog.

[Zeuhl]

^Interesting point of difference

Being junior partner to the Tories was a death sentence for the Lib Dems

For UKIP it would be a major advance

[Gromit]

A Tory / UKIP coalition is extremely unlikely.

If UKIP win any seats, it will be at the expense of the Tories. For them to have enough seats to hold the balance of power, would mean the Conservatives had done very badly. If UKIP do indeed have 20-30 seats it would guarantee a Labour election win.

[Svejk]

I think they might do well in Labour areas. We shall have to see, wont we. The people who said they'd be lucky to get 1 seat wont be winning any prizes, I doubt.

[Quizmonster]

Hi, Andy. Given that Cameron has described UKIP as "a bunch of fruitcakes, loonies and closet racists” and it is claimed that one of his sidekicks, Lord Feldman, apparently described the Tories’ own supporters as “swivel-eyed loons”, the two parties are perhaps ideal bed-mates!
If such a coalition as you suggest does materialise, at least we won't have to ask ourselves whether or not the lunatics have taken over the asylum!

[Gromit]

Svejk
I live is a very solid Labour area and UKIP did very well in the local elections. That resulted in no seats for them, but contributed to the Conservatives losing 2 seats to Labour. I reckon that is how it will play out elsewhere at the general election.

[mikey4444]

Gromit has it right here.......UKIP "doing well" translates as the Tories losing seats to Labour, which is exactly what dave said this week. So, if you live in a Tory constituency...vote UKIP...PLEASE !

[mikey4444]

Electoral Calculus has now been updated ::

http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/homepage.html

Now predicted to be a 42 seat majority for Labour, up from a 30 seat majority at the end of August. And a 63% chance of a Labour majority, up from 57% a month ago. So it appears to be going in the wrong direct for dave. Losing votes to Labour in the main.