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Electoral Calculus Site Updated
Just to show that I don't just post good news for Labour ::
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Interesting change from last month..
27th Sep ::
CON.....242
LAB......346
LIB.......18
UKIP......0
NAT.......25
MIN.......19
2nd Nov ::
CON....263
LAB.....302
LIB.......16
UKIP.....0
NAT......50
MIN......19
So it seems that the SNP are predicted to take large amounts of seats from Labour. Notice that UKIP is still predicted to have no MPs
Last month, EC predicted that that there was a 63% probability of a Labour majority, but that has fallen to 34% this month. But coalitions of various flavours are still a very small probability.
Discuss !
http://
Interesting change from last month..
27th Sep ::
CON.....242
LAB......346
LIB.......18
UKIP......0
NAT.......25
MIN.......19
2nd Nov ::
CON....263
LAB.....302
LIB.......16
UKIP.....0
NAT......50
MIN......19
So it seems that the SNP are predicted to take large amounts of seats from Labour. Notice that UKIP is still predicted to have no MPs
Last month, EC predicted that that there was a 63% probability of a Labour majority, but that has fallen to 34% this month. But coalitions of various flavours are still a very small probability.
Discuss !
Answers
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The Scottish referendum seems to have caused a bump for the SNP even though the people voted No to full Independence.
It seems odd that none of that was picked up in the 27th September Poll. Which suggests that I he surge is a very recent thing. There may be time to reverse it in the next 7 months or at least rein in the SNP a bit.
Unfortunately, Labour in Scotland appear yo be in somewhat disarry and time is running out.
Irish nic that a Yes vote would have handed the General Election to the Tories. No one really thought that a No vote would.
It seems odd that none of that was picked up in the 27th September Poll. Which suggests that I he surge is a very recent thing. There may be time to reverse it in the next 7 months or at least rein in the SNP a bit.
Unfortunately, Labour in Scotland appear yo be in somewhat disarry and time is running out.
Irish nic that a Yes vote would have handed the General Election to the Tories. No one really thought that a No vote would.
What I don't really understand about the Scots is that the referendum went firmly along the NO route. If you take the percentage of eligible people that could vote, only 38% voted YES. As the Tories can be discounted altogether in Scotland, I find it strange that most voted voted NO but now say that they support the SNP ! I fail to see how they can have it both ways.
they voted no on the promise of more powers mikey, essentially they wanted the best of both worlds. Odd as it seems a large amount of SNP supporters must have thought that in the final analysis it's better the devil you know especially if you can wrest a better deal. Now they are free to vote SNP to punish the LIB/LAB parties.
Morning TTT !
As I understand it, Gordon Brown, speaking on behalf of all the main Parties, promised reforms if the referendum was voted down. Its widely recognised that his intervention made a big difference in the closing days of the referendum campaign.
But the Scots already have a considerable amount of autonomy, that other parts of the UK do not have. If the support for the SNP continues until next May, it might result in the Tories winning again. Given the Scots antipathy to the Tories, why would they make a Tory victory more likely ?
Its seems that they want to have their cake and eat it too, north of the Border !
As I understand it, Gordon Brown, speaking on behalf of all the main Parties, promised reforms if the referendum was voted down. Its widely recognised that his intervention made a big difference in the closing days of the referendum campaign.
But the Scots already have a considerable amount of autonomy, that other parts of the UK do not have. If the support for the SNP continues until next May, it might result in the Tories winning again. Given the Scots antipathy to the Tories, why would they make a Tory victory more likely ?
Its seems that they want to have their cake and eat it too, north of the Border !
Scotland is a countRy, not a county. Thus, though Yorkshire has a population roughly equivalent to Scotland's, there is no prospect that the former will ever be allowed to hold a referendum on independence from the rest of England! It has nothing to do with numbers.
Many Scots turned away from Labour when they saw Miliband "on the same platform", in effect, as Cameron and Clegg during their referendum. All three signed up to a vow - not just a vague 'promise' - to give Scots greater powers within the UK.
Of course, the very next day, Cameron said these powers would be 'tied' to progressing alongside EVEL' (English Votes for English Laws), even though there is no real connection between these processes. So that rather blotted his copybook in the eyes of many north of the border.
As you yourself say, Mikey, re Gordon Brown, "It's widely recognised that his intervention made a big difference in the closing days of the referendum campaign." That won't have helped Scottish Labour's position either, will it, if they began to feel it was all a bit of a con? Having and eating cake is not the same as believing your cake may just have been snatched from your hand!
Many Scots turned away from Labour when they saw Miliband "on the same platform", in effect, as Cameron and Clegg during their referendum. All three signed up to a vow - not just a vague 'promise' - to give Scots greater powers within the UK.
Of course, the very next day, Cameron said these powers would be 'tied' to progressing alongside EVEL' (English Votes for English Laws), even though there is no real connection between these processes. So that rather blotted his copybook in the eyes of many north of the border.
As you yourself say, Mikey, re Gordon Brown, "It's widely recognised that his intervention made a big difference in the closing days of the referendum campaign." That won't have helped Scottish Labour's position either, will it, if they began to feel it was all a bit of a con? Having and eating cake is not the same as believing your cake may just have been snatched from your hand!
Mikey
I think it represents a clear rejection of the Westminster led elite that the main Parties represent. They have seen the Westminster MPs trample on the Scottish Labour Party, so realise labour does not truly represent Scotland.
That is the new reality post the referendum. Labour need to give the Scottish Labour Party more autonomy. As long as it remains a London centric Party, the Scots will not vote for it.
I think it represents a clear rejection of the Westminster led elite that the main Parties represent. They have seen the Westminster MPs trample on the Scottish Labour Party, so realise labour does not truly represent Scotland.
That is the new reality post the referendum. Labour need to give the Scottish Labour Party more autonomy. As long as it remains a London centric Party, the Scots will not vote for it.
QM...you may very well be right but if this support for the SNP continues, it might very well result in the Tories being handed next years Election on a plate, and how will that benefit the Scots ? If they hate the Tories so much, why do anything that will assist them ?
Its smacks of cutting of their noses to spite their faces to me. A pyrrhic victory even in other words.
Its smacks of cutting of their noses to spite their faces to me. A pyrrhic victory even in other words.
Gromit...I am not sure if the Labour IS a london-centric party any more than the Tories or the Libs, but even it is, its been that way for ever. All the SNP will achieve here is a smug feeling of self-satisfaction and another 5 years of dave. We hate the Tories here in Wales as well but Plaid Cymru is only a minority party at Westminster.
Mikey,
The Conservatives have 1 MP in Scotland, yet lead the Givernment that rules Scotland. Why would they support that system? If indeed they do send 40 SNP MPs to Westminster, they will probably serve them better than all those Labour MPs have these past 4 years.
And the SNP may just be the Kungmakers if there is not overall majority, and the LubDems are wiped out.
The Conservatives have 1 MP in Scotland, yet lead the Givernment that rules Scotland. Why would they support that system? If indeed they do send 40 SNP MPs to Westminster, they will probably serve them better than all those Labour MPs have these past 4 years.
And the SNP may just be the Kungmakers if there is not overall majority, and the LubDems are wiped out.
That pretty-well sums it up, Gromit. I imagine that far too few Scots realised that, in the event of independence, they would have had a Scottish general election, at which all parties would be represented. Instead, they thought Alex Salmond would automatically be the Prime Minister there in perpetuity.
I reach this conclusion since so many - including here on AnswerBank - spoke of their dislike of him personally, as if HE would be the 'boss' forever more! Who knows? They may well have had a Scottish Tory government in a year or two or a Scottish Labour one or a Scottish Nationalist one or whatever. However, the older people there voted to "stay with nanny". Ho-hum!
I reach this conclusion since so many - including here on AnswerBank - spoke of their dislike of him personally, as if HE would be the 'boss' forever more! Who knows? They may well have had a Scottish Tory government in a year or two or a Scottish Labour one or a Scottish Nationalist one or whatever. However, the older people there voted to "stay with nanny". Ho-hum!
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