Crosswords1 min ago
Are The Polls In The Run Up To Elections Misleading?
Interesting findings by an analyst.
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"I don’t think Tory voters are ashamed – just not that interested in taking pollsters seriously."
If so this probably has the effect of a self-fulfilling prophecy, surely? I mean, polls rely on people to be as truthful as possible, and if they are not then naturally it makes the poll less reliable.
It is perhaps also the way polls are reported. For example recent polls are putting Labour maybe two or three points ahead (eg yougov on 22 January has Lab 33%, Con 31%), but the margin of error is such that this really means that it's neck-and-neck. If the media focused more on the uncertainties than the headline figure, people might take them more seriously.
At any rate, more open reporting of how polls work is worth it in itself.
If so this probably has the effect of a self-fulfilling prophecy, surely? I mean, polls rely on people to be as truthful as possible, and if they are not then naturally it makes the poll less reliable.
It is perhaps also the way polls are reported. For example recent polls are putting Labour maybe two or three points ahead (eg yougov on 22 January has Lab 33%, Con 31%), but the margin of error is such that this really means that it's neck-and-neck. If the media focused more on the uncertainties than the headline figure, people might take them more seriously.
At any rate, more open reporting of how polls work is worth it in itself.
No doubt these people know what they're talking about, but if I supported a political party I might be embarrassed about telling a friend, neighbour or work colleague, or even someone I met in the street or at a party.
But if you can't confide even in a political pollster it's pretty bad. A bit like not being able to confess to or explore the darkest corners of your soul to a psychoanalyst. They can't be that bad, can they (!)
But if you can't confide even in a political pollster it's pretty bad. A bit like not being able to confess to or explore the darkest corners of your soul to a psychoanalyst. They can't be that bad, can they (!)
To answer your question directly Naomi....no, I don't think so. Apart from a tiny few anomalies, Labour have been ahead for years. Here is the latest UK Polling Report :::
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As regards to Tory voters being ashamed, couldn't it also be the case that Labour voters are ashamed, or does this only work one-way ?
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As regards to Tory voters being ashamed, couldn't it also be the case that Labour voters are ashamed, or does this only work one-way ?
Mikey, //Apart from a tiny few anomalies, Labour have been ahead for years.//
According to the analyst the figures don't reflect the true situation so they haven’t. And if ‘‘years’ includes the years leading up to the last election that would surely prove his point. Sorry to disappoint Mikey – and Ichkeria – these are his findings, not mine. I’m merely the messenger.
I don’t think Tory voters are ashamed, Mikey. You’ll have to address your question to those who do.
According to the analyst the figures don't reflect the true situation so they haven’t. And if ‘‘years’ includes the years leading up to the last election that would surely prove his point. Sorry to disappoint Mikey – and Ichkeria – these are his findings, not mine. I’m merely the messenger.
I don’t think Tory voters are ashamed, Mikey. You’ll have to address your question to those who do.
I've always thought this. More people vote Tory than admit to it.
But we don't have to speculate about it - the answer must be out there because we have years and years of past poll data and actual election results to study.
That will provide a definitive answer as to how representative of the actual election result the opinion polls are.
But we don't have to speculate about it - the answer must be out there because we have years and years of past poll data and actual election results to study.
That will provide a definitive answer as to how representative of the actual election result the opinion polls are.
Ludwig...why have always thought that more people vote Tory than admit to it ?
You may very well be right, but it may also equally be the case that more people vote Labour than admit to it. Or does this incidence of not admitting your voting intentions only apply to right-wingers ? There is a factor of unreliability built into every Poll, but it can work both ways.
You may very well be right, but it may also equally be the case that more people vote Labour than admit to it. Or does this incidence of not admitting your voting intentions only apply to right-wingers ? There is a factor of unreliability built into every Poll, but it can work both ways.
To answer your question directly Naomi....no, I don't think so. Apart from a tiny few anomalies, Labour have been ahead for years.
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So what UKIP did at the Euro elections was an 'anomaly', was it?
Not even Nostradamus with a crystal ball and the Hubble telescope at his disposal could have seen that coming!
Certainly in the present political climate I wouldn't give them too much creedence.
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So what UKIP did at the Euro elections was an 'anomaly', was it?
Not even Nostradamus with a crystal ball and the Hubble telescope at his disposal could have seen that coming!
Certainly in the present political climate I wouldn't give them too much creedence.
If you live in an area like mine, where the Labour votes are not counted, they are weighed, you don't tell people at the bar that you are voting Tory. The irony is that most of the red-hot Labour voters that I know make both the Tories and UKIP look like a bunch of lefties. For many people, voting Labour is a tribal thing.
Opinion polls should be prohibited within three months of an election.
In the run up to the Scottish referendum a rogue poll caused the Three Amigos to hot foot it on the Virgin Express to Scotland to promise the electorate all manner of money and gifts to persuade them to remain in the UK (though why they should do this without asking the rest of the UK what they wanted is a little unclear).
The cost of these goodies to the majority shareholders in UK plc (i.e. the English) is now becoming clear and Ms Sturgeon's increasing demands will demonstrate clearly why the English will wish that poll was never published.
In the run up to the Scottish referendum a rogue poll caused the Three Amigos to hot foot it on the Virgin Express to Scotland to promise the electorate all manner of money and gifts to persuade them to remain in the UK (though why they should do this without asking the rest of the UK what they wanted is a little unclear).
The cost of these goodies to the majority shareholders in UK plc (i.e. the English) is now becoming clear and Ms Sturgeon's increasing demands will demonstrate clearly why the English will wish that poll was never published.
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