According to this morning's i the Tories are in the lead (poll conducted by ComRes exclusively for this newspaper).
Here are their figures :-
Tory 31%
Labour 30%
UKIP 17%
Lib 8%
Green 7%
Others 7%
Three subsidiary questions and results :-
I trust David Cameron to ensure the NHS has enough money
Yes 29% No 65% Undecided 6%
I trust Ed Milliband to ensure the NHS has enough money
Yes 28% No 65% Undecided 7%
When deciding how I will vote at the general election in May, the parties policies on health and the NHS will matter to me more than their economic policies
Yes 59% No 37% Undecided 5%
We should ignore all polls and predictions this early, because the set of circumstances going into this election are unique.
- the two main Parties are neck and neck.
- the Conservatives will lose votes to UKIP.
- Labour will loes seats to the SNP.
- the LibDem vote will collapse.
- the chances of another coalition are very high.
For the above reasons, anyone predicting a Conservative or Labour win are talking out of their pants.
I'm not necessarily saying you, gromit, but from your AB friends. We've had to put up with daily poll updates giving Labour an unassailable lead accompanied by much crowing. Now you want us to ignore the Polls?
Ps. Where's windy, today?
Svejk
It was fair to predict a Labour victory up until a year ago. But things have changed.
- Labour's lead has evaporated
- the SNP are on a bounce at the expense of Labour.
- UKIP have taken two seats from the Conservatives.
- UKIP's vote nationally in the Euro Elections increase substantially.
So what looked probable a year ago is now more confused and impossible to predict.