Will The Election Bring Any Surprises?

[naomi24]

The general consensus of opinion is that the election will be a very close run race resulting in another coalition. Is there a possibility that we may be surprised by an unexpected outcome?

[Hopkirk]

Yes, another General Election this autumn, with mostly a new set of party leaders.

[SirOracle]

An outside possibility Naomi but I wouldn't be rushing to the bookie with your hard earned cash.

[naomi24]

With current expectations, that wouldn't be entirely unexpected, Hopkirk.

[naomi24]

SirOracle, haha! I won't.

[SirOracle]

Wise lady. ;-)

[jim360]

I guess it depends on what counts as a surprise. The signs are that the election is close enough for almost any result to happen; a few tiny fluctuations here and there and we could see even a landslide victory for one of the main parties, based on a set of narrow wins. More likely for a Labour landslide than a Tory one, I'd say, because of the situation in Scotland leading to a 30-odd seat swing in their favour if the SNP fall short (at this point fairly unlikely).

Two things I do not expect, and which could therefore happen, would be the Lib Dems gaining seats and -- separately -- UKIP establishing themselves as the bona fide third party ahead of the SNP and Lib Dems. I don't realistically see UKIP overturning the majorities they have to deal with in more than a handful of seats (by-elections are just a chance to stick two fingers up to the incumbents, so those don't really count), so I'd be very surprised by that and it would be unexpected to me. Equally, the Lib Dems seem to be unable to defend their record successfully so I doubt they'll be doing well either.

With just about anything possible, though, there's little that could happen that has been totally unforeseen. Roll on the election proper.

[ludwig]

I think jim's summarised it pretty well.

[Gromit]

A three way coalition could be the result. That would be unusual in peace time.

[youngmafbog]

Hung Parliament, a re-election in 18 months. That would be a surprise, but possible.

[mummybee]

I can't see many votes for the limp dems!!!!

[ToraToraTora]

there will likely be a lot of new snouts in the trough so I doubt there will be a new election after this one so one one outcome may be a minority government with little chance of actually doing very much. That can be a good thing.

[Hopkirk]

Autumn election 2015.

Boris Johnson v Andy Burnham v Tim Farron v Douglas Carswell?

[lindapalmara]

Why on earth did the Coelition enshrine the 5 year term in law? Smells like a Lib Dem idea

[tonyav]

Looks like the markets are getting a tad nervous.
http://www.msn.com/en-gb/money/markets/markets-spooked-by-threat-of-labour-snp-coalition-economists-warn/ar-AAayvnB

[jourdain2]

A real surprise would be an outright win, probably based on Jim's good analysis of a seat here and there.
It doesn't really matter what is said now - ''a week is a long time in politics" and there is a long way to go. Either undecided people will be influenced by an event close to the poll, or they won't.. and will go blindly with a stab at what they think is best at the time in a sort of panic. It's a rather scary scenario, but I think it's reasonably accurate - most people do not follow campaigns all that closely and rationalise, debate etc. interminably.

I have a sneaky feeling that people really are in revolt against the status quo triparteid (is that spelled right?) system. If I'm right there could be fireworks - and an Autumn election! This fixed term idea was rubbish from the start i.m.o..

[Baldric]

No, course it won't, same old, same old bunch of k*o*s in charge, never held a proper job between them, got no idea how real people think or what we need and don't care.