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Is Your Mp's Seat A Done Deal?
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Very interesting:
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I'm still voting tho!
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I'm still voting tho!
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Ah yes....the retirement home for ex-MPs !
Heseltine was one of the greatest and most competent of post-war Tory MP's, and if he had succeeded Attila the Hen, instead of Major, they might not have lost the 1997 Election by the biggest landslide ever. But because of his support for Europe, his Party ditched him into oblivion. The only possible reason that they voted Major as Leader was that he wasn't Heseltine.
Europe, that open, festering wound of the Tory Party, which will rear its ugly head yet again, if there there is ever a referendum over our membership of the EU.
It has tore the Party apart before and it will do it again.
Heseltine was one of the greatest and most competent of post-war Tory MP's, and if he had succeeded Attila the Hen, instead of Major, they might not have lost the 1997 Election by the biggest landslide ever. But because of his support for Europe, his Party ditched him into oblivion. The only possible reason that they voted Major as Leader was that he wasn't Heseltine.
Europe, that open, festering wound of the Tory Party, which will rear its ugly head yet again, if there there is ever a referendum over our membership of the EU.
It has tore the Party apart before and it will do it again.
Yet another problem with the way we elect MPs... where is the accountability if there are such things as perennially safe seats?
Really this came to a head in 1983, when Labour's manifesto has been variously described as "the longest suicide note in history" and, lest poetically "utter ***". And they still won 209 seats. Bloody heaartlands.
Really this came to a head in 1983, when Labour's manifesto has been variously described as "the longest suicide note in history" and, lest poetically "utter ***". And they still won 209 seats. Bloody heaartlands.
In this particular case, it's not really about the voting system per se, but about the way in which the constituencies are organised. You can draw boundaries to ensure that as many seats as possible are competitive; conversely, it's possible to fix the system so that basically no seats change hands, ever, unless your MP is a complete weirdo whom everyone hates regardless of party affiliation.
For a long time, it's been apparent that the current constituency boundaries favour Labour somewhat, giving them something close to 200 safe seats compared with the Tory's 150-odd. Redrawing the boundaries to reduce the number of these safe seats is possible, even if you stick with First Past The Post.
Indeed, the Conservatives made an attempt to do some boundary redrawing, but were scuppered on at least most of it after there was a fall-out over Lords Reform (blocked by the Tories) leading to the Lib Dems blocking boundary changes. Shabby politics, that is likely to cost the Tories as many as thirty seats they could have won, according to one article -- probably closer to ten, but at any rate in a constituency-based system the position of the boundaries can make a huge difference.
For a long time, it's been apparent that the current constituency boundaries favour Labour somewhat, giving them something close to 200 safe seats compared with the Tory's 150-odd. Redrawing the boundaries to reduce the number of these safe seats is possible, even if you stick with First Past The Post.
Indeed, the Conservatives made an attempt to do some boundary redrawing, but were scuppered on at least most of it after there was a fall-out over Lords Reform (blocked by the Tories) leading to the Lib Dems blocking boundary changes. Shabby politics, that is likely to cost the Tories as many as thirty seats they could have won, according to one article -- probably closer to ten, but at any rate in a constituency-based system the position of the boundaries can make a huge difference.
mines a safe Tory seat, I knew that anyway, that's why I live here. Yes mikey you are correct, there was an ABH movement in the Tory Party after the depature of TGL. However I dispute your opinion on the 1997 election. We lost for 2 reasons, Blair made Labour electable by ditching it's sacred cows and the public's ever present irational yearn for change. The public, like westminster are split down the middle on the EU I doubt Michael Messuptime would have made any difference to the outcome.
"...the public's ever present irational [sic] yearn for change."
Why is this irrational? The Tory party in 1997 was essentially unelectable. Stagnating after 18 years, with a fairly limp leader who was barely able to command the support of the party faithful, let alone the country. Of course it was important to boot that lot out, if nothing else because this gives the Tory party a chance to buck up their ideas, start over, reorganise, elect a new and charismatic leader, etc.
It's not clear that they've taken this chance, given, for example, the continuing split over Europe, but a party in perpetual office is in the long run as big a disaster as anything you've ever seen. What would even be the point in trying to persuade the public to vote for you? They will anyway, so you are free to do what you want with impunity. However much the Tory faithful might like to think otherwise, not everything they touch turns to gold, and so change, or at least a worthy opposition, is important.
On a local level it's the same. Safe seats sever the link between an MP and his constituency, as if, for example, the party wants a particular person in Parliament, they just give him a safe seat to contest. On very rare occasions even the safest seats turn out to be anything but (Portillo), but safe seats are as bad for democracy as safe governments are.
Why is this irrational? The Tory party in 1997 was essentially unelectable. Stagnating after 18 years, with a fairly limp leader who was barely able to command the support of the party faithful, let alone the country. Of course it was important to boot that lot out, if nothing else because this gives the Tory party a chance to buck up their ideas, start over, reorganise, elect a new and charismatic leader, etc.
It's not clear that they've taken this chance, given, for example, the continuing split over Europe, but a party in perpetual office is in the long run as big a disaster as anything you've ever seen. What would even be the point in trying to persuade the public to vote for you? They will anyway, so you are free to do what you want with impunity. However much the Tory faithful might like to think otherwise, not everything they touch turns to gold, and so change, or at least a worthy opposition, is important.
On a local level it's the same. Safe seats sever the link between an MP and his constituency, as if, for example, the party wants a particular person in Parliament, they just give him a safe seat to contest. On very rare occasions even the safest seats turn out to be anything but (Portillo), but safe seats are as bad for democracy as safe governments are.
This is not a left v. right issue, either. Of the ten "worst" seats by the measure used by that website, nine are Labour seats (the other is held by Sinn Fein).
Your "best system" (anything but) is seriously biased in Labour's favour. If you want to preserve FPTP, the least we could do is address the gerrymandering issue -- which has nothing whatsoever to do with PR.
Your "best system" (anything but) is seriously biased in Labour's favour. If you want to preserve FPTP, the least we could do is address the gerrymandering issue -- which has nothing whatsoever to do with PR.
Since Mikey's been sharing the Electoral Calculus results for a while, and making absolutely no comment about how recent polls are showing Labour getting fewer votes but more seats, I wouldn't hold out hope.
Our current system -- and like I said you don't need (pure) PR to fix this -- almost manages to shaft everyone at once. If you don't like Labour or the Tories, then tough, your vote is often worthless. And the Conservatives typically need significantly more votes than Labour to achieve the same number of seats. And then if you are a Labour supporter outside the heartlands, well bad luck as well!
This can be fixed all at once with Pure PR, but at the cost of foisting inevitable coalitions upon us; although there is a real chance that a) we will have one anyway and b) it will include the SNP despite a reasonable PR system limiting their seat share to something like half of what it's likely to be -- and of course PR severs any link at all between voters and individual MPs.
The answer can be found in the plentiful middle ground between these two extremes. One fairly simple example is to have an FPTP-elected Commons (with more equal constituencies), while having the Lords elected on a proportional basis -- and then enshrining in law the sovereignty of the Commons. More elaborate solutions are possible, depending on what you want from an electoral system.
At any rate, 2015 is going to serve as a wake-up call to the right-wing of politics.
Our current system -- and like I said you don't need (pure) PR to fix this -- almost manages to shaft everyone at once. If you don't like Labour or the Tories, then tough, your vote is often worthless. And the Conservatives typically need significantly more votes than Labour to achieve the same number of seats. And then if you are a Labour supporter outside the heartlands, well bad luck as well!
This can be fixed all at once with Pure PR, but at the cost of foisting inevitable coalitions upon us; although there is a real chance that a) we will have one anyway and b) it will include the SNP despite a reasonable PR system limiting their seat share to something like half of what it's likely to be -- and of course PR severs any link at all between voters and individual MPs.
The answer can be found in the plentiful middle ground between these two extremes. One fairly simple example is to have an FPTP-elected Commons (with more equal constituencies), while having the Lords elected on a proportional basis -- and then enshrining in law the sovereignty of the Commons. More elaborate solutions are possible, depending on what you want from an electoral system.
At any rate, 2015 is going to serve as a wake-up call to the right-wing of politics.
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