Labour Wipeout

[retrocop]

mikey
I know it from the DM what us plebs read but I think it is in the Guardian as well.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3044341/SNP-poised-big-Labour-scalps-Poll-shows-party-faces-unprecedented-wipe-Jim-Murphy-Douglas-Alexander-course-lose-seats.html

As you say,"interesting times." Perhaps Red Ed should cancel his booking with Pickfords.

[naomi24]

I find this really very curious. Scotland voted against independence and yet the electorate is now supporting the people whose main ambition is for Scotland to be independent. Strange.

[anotheoldgit]

naomi24

Yes I also find that confusing, perhaps they think it's one way they can get their hands on another pot of gold from Westminster?

[THECORBYLOON]

If it weren't for the SNP there would not have been the transfer of so much power from Westminster. It may be that folk will vote SNP in the hope of more power, short of full independence, which the other parties would not support.

[DTCwordfan]

I think it's more interesting to look at the Scottish Lib seats (11) and how those will go - that would be gains against the coalition - perhaps neutralised by the Tories raping the Libs here in the SW.

[mushroom25]

you not voting for MK, DT?

[Gromit]

I was saying this 6 months ago on AB.

// The Scottish referendum seems to have caused a bump for the SNP even though the people voted No to full Independence.

It seems odd that none of that was picked up in the 27th September Poll. Which suggests that The surge is a very recent thing. There may be time to reverse it in the next 7 months or at least rein in the SNP a bit.

Unfortunately, Labour in Scotland appear yo be in somewhat disarry and time is running out.

Ironic that a Yes vote would have handed the General Election to the Tories. No one really thought that a No vote would.
09:38 Mon 03rd Nov 2014Report

[Peter Pedant]

It should be Labour wipeout in the trossacks shouldnt it ?

// Scotland voted against independence and yet the electorate is now supporting the people whose main ambition is for Scotland to be independent. Strange.//

happens alot in democracy Ny
When oor nicky tried to capitalise on this by saying
" when we're in poor, there'll be anayther referendum "
those that understood her - booed

[Ellipsis]

> I find this really very curious. Scotland voted against independence and yet the electorate is now supporting the people whose main ambition is for Scotland to be independent. Strange.

It's because 45% is not enough to win a Yes/No referendum but more than enough to win a seat for which several candidates are running.

[Gromit]

Is a Tory wipeout in Scotland a given then?

[DTCwordfan]

MK?

[DTCwordfan]

Got it - emphatically no.

[-Talbot-]

UKIP Wypeowt

not spotted by mikey yet?


http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3043384/Must-try-harder-Teacher-covers-Ukip-election-leaflet-posted-door-red-pen-correcting-spelling-grammar-punctuation-mistakes.html

[mushroom25]

Mebyon Kernow.

well, well, i had you down as a son of kernow......

[retrocop]

aog
You could be right.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3044197/Sturgeon-holds-Britain-ransom-wanted-Union-ll-vote-NHS-SNP-leader-taunts-English-voters.html

[steg]

May be because the SNP were a minority government Up here For 4 years working with the other parties and it worked well enough to win an outright majority 3years ago and people think they could do a good job down in Westminster . Just a thought

[Slapshot]

It's really simple, for the first time in a generation the referendum got people up here interested in politics and the theory (yeah I know) is that you can shape your future, we are engaged in the process if you like. The SNP has become a movement much like Labour was 100 years ago and we seen what they have done. Their policies in Scotland are also attractive to people so largely they play their hand very well.

One key to the current surge is that Alex Salmond is no longer Party Leader and I believe that should all current MPs be returned he wouldn't be the leader of the party in Westminster either. Not only are they preaching progressive politics but in not having Salmond as a party leader in Westminster the Party is progressing too, He wasn't particularly popular as a person.

Key problem, as has been known for years if you do your research, is that Scottish labour are just the thread of a party being controlled from Westminster, their focus is elsewhere and they not seen to do anything positive in Scotland. Their emphasis in Scotland has changed since the loss of all the heavy industry and the tight control of the unions within the shipyards, steel mills and car plants of the central belt. I would not be shocked if they are wiped out but surprised if they gain 10 seats or more.

Put it this way if the turnout in Scotland on the 7th of May approaches that of the referendum, Scottish Labour and the Scottish LibDems could disappear from Westminster altogether.

[jim360]

Frustratingly the DM hasn't provided the full figures for comparison, but nevertheless other surveys have shown that the SNP is looking to win so many seats based on picking up about 45% of the popular vote in Scotland. Maybe a bit more, depending on turnout -- but a majority of Scots remains against the SNP and against independence. It is just that because in this election, there is no clearly-defined single opposition to the SNP's position but a whole set of parties -- including UKIP! -- that will split the opposition vote between them and let the SNP in. Low turnout amongst non-SNP supporters will also play into their hands.

It's a disaster for Scottish democracy if the SNP win any more than, say, 30 seats. The level of their support is going to be greatly exaggerated -- and that is sad for Scotland as well as the UK.

[steg]

"It's a disaster for Scottish democracy if the SNP win any more than, say, 30 seats. The level of their support is going to be greatly exaggerated -- and that is sad for Scotland as well as the UK."
Lol Jim , we have a Westminster gov that only won One seat up here

[jim360]

That's true but then since Scotland is a smaller region than the rest of the UK it should expect that its choice for representation is not always the same as the rest of the UK. You could also not that Manchester picked pretty much entirely Labour and ended up with a Tory government. Democracy isn't about getting what you want individually if there are more people who want something else -- there have to be losers in Democracy. Scotland has had the government it voted for more often than not.

In this case the SNP is looking likely to win (almost) 100% of Scotland's constituencies, based on less than 50% of its vote. The voice of the Scottish who don't want the SNP to have such influence is then going to be silenced. That is far more of a disaster for democracy than a smaller region having to accept that the bigger region wants something else. This time, the smaller region is potentially going to be pulling almost all the punches.

[steg]

im pretty sure the torys got less than 45% of the national vote and are in power, so if the SNP win 100% of the seats that they are going for (which I very much doubt)and win them with 45% of the voters in these seats then surely that is good for democracy?