Wishful Thinking ?

[Canary42]

Tory Majority To 'Erode In Months'

https://uk.news.yahoo.com/salmond-tory-majority-erode-months-030943544.html#iI6OQeS

Characteristic hot air from Mr Self-seeker.

[jim360]

Very possibly. Then again the Tory majority is small enough that it's vulnerable to rebellions, so...

[sandyRoe]

The DUP are waiting hopefully in the wings for the call from Number 10. Their strategists would probably be thinking, Better late than never.

[mushroom25]

it's not wishful thinking, the precedent for this was the autumn 1974 labour administration, which in its later months after a period of natural wastage, relied on the "lib lab pact" - which was of course doomed. it's not clear who the tories would have their pact with, just about everyone else is gunning for them, for one reason or another.

[Hypognosis]

"Consensus Politics" sounds great, on paper but the reality ends up being "you scratch my back, I'll scratch yours", tail wagging the dog and all that.

What would really impress the electorate (well, me, at least) is if sufficient numbers of the second place party would evade the party whip and vote through government motions which they can either tolerate or even partially agree with, in such a way as to deny the nationalist groups the leverage they seek.

Of course the neon "This Never Happens" sign will be flashing at this point because ideological differences make that unlikely - it's what parliament is all about, after all. But refusal to cooperate, specifically in order to get what you want, from the position of numerical inferiority is, in essence, childish behaviour. Preventing the nationalists getting their way, if that involves harming the nation, therefore becomes admirable, even though spoiling their aims is on the same level. To neutralise 80-odd SNP/DUP/PC/Other only requires half that number, plus one, Labour to vote 'aye', each time.

To my mind, it is a pity that election day majorities are not turned into block votes on individual bills. The existing system of "pairing off" means that a majority of 27 can pair off with a majority of 7,000 such that neither MP has to show their face at the debate. Whether they spend the day on their constituents or go to the golf course is neither here nor there. Block votes would make it important *who* fails to attend and/or vote according to constituents' instructions rather than the party whip.

[Gromit]

It will.

Deaths, by elections, defections will happen over 5 years.
He has a majority of twelve, so if 6 constitencies change hands, the majority has gone.

That is what befell Wilson's Government sfter 1974, and why a pact with the Liberals was need.

[New Judge]

The difficulty with that, Gromit, is that at present not many Conservative seats are likely to change hands in the event of by-elections.

What is good is that, with a slender majority, the Prime Minister needs to be more wary of his back benchers than of the Opposition thus making it more likely he will behave like a proper Conservative instead of a quasi- Noo Labourite.

Further, as has been said, since both Labour and Conservative seem, unfortunately, to oppose Scottish Independence, they would do well to join forces when faced with the inevitable unreasonable demands of the SNP. But neither will do that as they will both (more so Labour) be looking at ways of weaning the Scottish electorate back into their fold.

[Gromit]

The Conservatives lost 3 seats in the last Government. There is bound to be some eroding, there always is.

[ichkeria]

The majority is effectively 17, which is not bad to be fair.
What will undermine him is his own back benchers, the EU referendum and of course the possibility of a leadership contest later in the term. Looks like he's trying to anoint Osborne there.

And the issue of the SNP: he will need all his skill to handle the issue of increased devolution successfully, particularly as he may be on an "austerity collision course" with Scots and who knows maybe with others too.

[mikey4444]

Just wait until the referendum on remaining in the EU comes about.

The real enemy for the Tories isn't the SNP, or even the Labour Party...its Europe. The Tories will tear themselves apart in bitter in-fighting over the issue, as they always have done in the past. Its why dave never really wanted to have a referendum in the first place. To be fair to him, he doesn't want to leave the EU, but there are enough in his Party that do and that it could be his downfall.

He should never had tried to appease Farage and UKIP by promising a referendum, and his mistake will come back to haunt him.