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Could This Escalate Into A World War?
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Could Russia attack Turkey?
Could Russia attack Turkey?
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If you think the RAF would not have shot down a Russian war plane in British airspace. Indeed if you think any hostile war plane encroaching in another country's airspace, is not liable to get shot down then you have a very naive outlook. Having said all that, this will blow over after a lot of hot air from everyone. No one wants this to escalate I am quite sure. Maybe as I said before the Russians will learn their lesson
It appears from the map that the Russian plane was flying across a finger-shaped land peninsula of Turkey, which at that speed would take only 17 seconds to traverse, so I figure it must have been a premeditated trap.
The Turks are ***s, and always have been. Wan*er Erdogan having rigged his re-election by closing down all media and opposition, has the fantasy that he can re-commence the Ottoman Empire with him as the numero uno Sultan, while also enlarging it to him becoming a voice in the EU. Most leaders, like Obama, Merkel, Hollande etc. are naïve clowns, Erdogan is a very dangerous megalomanic.
The Turks are ***s, and always have been. Wan*er Erdogan having rigged his re-election by closing down all media and opposition, has the fantasy that he can re-commence the Ottoman Empire with him as the numero uno Sultan, while also enlarging it to him becoming a voice in the EU. Most leaders, like Obama, Merkel, Hollande etc. are naïve clowns, Erdogan is a very dangerous megalomanic.
Ich,
// British fighter jets have been scrambled more than 40 times to deter Russian military planes encroaching UK airspace since David Cameron took office, the Telegraph can reveal.//
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Incursions into airspace happen all the time, whether deliberate baiting or accidental. Unless genuine targets ar threatened, no action should be taken. The Russian jet posed no threat to Turkey, so its shooting down was ill judged, pointless, dangerous and very bad for Turkey.
Ich,
Your pathological hatred of Russia is clouding your judgement. I don't think anyone except you are thinking this was a good move by Turkey.
// British fighter jets have been scrambled more than 40 times to deter Russian military planes encroaching UK airspace since David Cameron took office, the Telegraph can reveal.//
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Incursions into airspace happen all the time, whether deliberate baiting or accidental. Unless genuine targets ar threatened, no action should be taken. The Russian jet posed no threat to Turkey, so its shooting down was ill judged, pointless, dangerous and very bad for Turkey.
Ich,
Your pathological hatred of Russia is clouding your judgement. I don't think anyone except you are thinking this was a good move by Turkey.
//The attack was reckless. //
In the current climate, it was.
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Indeed, as was flying so close to the Turkey/Syria border. Each country appears to be pushing their luck one way or another of late. If the Russians aren't doing what they did today, they're flying into UK airspace near Scotland. Also, as I've just heard on Newsnight the Turks have incurred into Greek airspace more than 20 times this year, so they're hardly playing the white man themselves, are they?
Pilots will have to remain tactically aware or suffer the consequences whilst ignoring requests to leave airspace they're not entitled to be in.
In the current climate, it was.
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Indeed, as was flying so close to the Turkey/Syria border. Each country appears to be pushing their luck one way or another of late. If the Russians aren't doing what they did today, they're flying into UK airspace near Scotland. Also, as I've just heard on Newsnight the Turks have incurred into Greek airspace more than 20 times this year, so they're hardly playing the white man themselves, are they?
Pilots will have to remain tactically aware or suffer the consequences whilst ignoring requests to leave airspace they're not entitled to be in.
ChillDoubt
Turkey has made incursions into Syrian airspace many hundreds of times. It has mounted airstrikes against Kurdish PKK positions in Turkey. So they have doyble standards.
It now appears the Russia plane overflew a finger of Turkish airspace for 9 seconds, but was clear out of it when the plane was hit in Syrian airspace. If confirmed, that has serious repecusssion for Turkey. A grovelling apology and reparations are needed, but Erdogan is such an idiot, he will never do that. Hopefully this is the catalyst the US needs to get out of Turkey for good and decamp to Cyprus. Turkey are an unreliable and dangerous ally to have at the moment.
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Turkey has made incursions into Syrian airspace many hundreds of times. It has mounted airstrikes against Kurdish PKK positions in Turkey. So they have doyble standards.
It now appears the Russia plane overflew a finger of Turkish airspace for 9 seconds, but was clear out of it when the plane was hit in Syrian airspace. If confirmed, that has serious repecusssion for Turkey. A grovelling apology and reparations are needed, but Erdogan is such an idiot, he will never do that. Hopefully this is the catalyst the US needs to get out of Turkey for good and decamp to Cyprus. Turkey are an unreliable and dangerous ally to have at the moment.
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If we make the creation of a Kurdish homeland a condition of Turkey's entry into the EU, that should stick a spanner in the works, more or less permanently.
Or would restoring pre- Manning-Picot land borders be helpful to stability in the region in it's own right?
The present instability could be because all sides think they can win, so they fight but they cannot hold on to gains in such a way as to deter attack and set up a border which opoonents respect in the long term.
I've always been fascinated by how national borders get established and why they are where they are. Yes, fighting was involved so looking into the reasons why historical border wars came to an end may be of some value.
Empire builders, like the Ottomans, ourselves and the French swept in and wrecked carefully balanced agreements which cost blood, generations previously.
Or would restoring pre- Manning-Picot land borders be helpful to stability in the region in it's own right?
The present instability could be because all sides think they can win, so they fight but they cannot hold on to gains in such a way as to deter attack and set up a border which opoonents respect in the long term.
I've always been fascinated by how national borders get established and why they are where they are. Yes, fighting was involved so looking into the reasons why historical border wars came to an end may be of some value.
Empire builders, like the Ottomans, ourselves and the French swept in and wrecked carefully balanced agreements which cost blood, generations previously.
// Gromit, they were given ten warnings to leave and those were ignored. //
That isn't really possible. The distance the Russian plane had to fly over Turkish airspace was very small. The plane can cover that distance in 9 seconds. In a letter to the UN, the Turks say the plane was in their airspace 17 seconds. 10 warnings in 17 seconds (or 9) is not possible. One properly excecuted warning is probably not possible.
That isn't really possible. The distance the Russian plane had to fly over Turkish airspace was very small. The plane can cover that distance in 9 seconds. In a letter to the UN, the Turks say the plane was in their airspace 17 seconds. 10 warnings in 17 seconds (or 9) is not possible. One properly excecuted warning is probably not possible.
Just measured the portion of Turkish terrotory the Russian plane flew over, and it is about 2.3 miles wide.
The plane flies at 0.3miles per second so would clear the area in 7 seconds. For the flyover to take 17 seconds as the Turks claim, the plane would have to be flying at less than half speed.
As it was coming in to attack rebel positions, and susceptible to ground attack, would it really be flying so slowly? More likely the 17 seconds is baloney, as is the 10 warnings.
The plane flies at 0.3miles per second so would clear the area in 7 seconds. For the flyover to take 17 seconds as the Turks claim, the plane would have to be flying at less than half speed.
As it was coming in to attack rebel positions, and susceptible to ground attack, would it really be flying so slowly? More likely the 17 seconds is baloney, as is the 10 warnings.
The US says the Turkish territory is 1.8 miles wide.
// A US official told Al Jazeera that the penetration of Turkish airspace by the Russian jet lasted "only a matter of seconds" as it crossed a roughly 3km (1.8 miles) wide section of Turkey that took only 20 seconds to traverse. //
In 20 seconds the Su-24 would fly 6 miles not 1.8 miles.
// A US official told Al Jazeera that the penetration of Turkish airspace by the Russian jet lasted "only a matter of seconds" as it crossed a roughly 3km (1.8 miles) wide section of Turkey that took only 20 seconds to traverse. //
In 20 seconds the Su-24 would fly 6 miles not 1.8 miles.
"I figure it must have been a premeditated trap"
No one in Turkey told the pilot to see what it is like to fly over their peninsula. They may well have been waiting for them to disrespect their borders once more, but if that was what occurred then one could hardly call that a trap.
And since I don't recall Turkey complaining at that their aircraft are being attacked when they incur in Syrian airspace I don't see from that, that they are holding double standards. More a case of holding the view that you can disregard others and do whatever you can get away with (so long as you accept consequences).
Doesn't mean this was a sensible time to assert their rights, nor right to attack the Kurds either. All rather making the general situation a lot more fraught.
No one in Turkey told the pilot to see what it is like to fly over their peninsula. They may well have been waiting for them to disrespect their borders once more, but if that was what occurred then one could hardly call that a trap.
And since I don't recall Turkey complaining at that their aircraft are being attacked when they incur in Syrian airspace I don't see from that, that they are holding double standards. More a case of holding the view that you can disregard others and do whatever you can get away with (so long as you accept consequences).
Doesn't mean this was a sensible time to assert their rights, nor right to attack the Kurds either. All rather making the general situation a lot more fraught.
Turkey is allowed to defend her borders and airspace.
While anyone is within those borders they can be attacked.
Once they have left those borders, they can not be attacked.
Turkey had about 10 seconds to attack the Russian plane in Turkish airspace. But they fired later when the plane was in Syrian airspace.
They are also supposed to issue a warning and give the aircraft time to remove itself, under rules previously agreed on.
While anyone is within those borders they can be attacked.
Once they have left those borders, they can not be attacked.
Turkey had about 10 seconds to attack the Russian plane in Turkish airspace. But they fired later when the plane was in Syrian airspace.
They are also supposed to issue a warning and give the aircraft time to remove itself, under rules previously agreed on.
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Breaking news; Russian pilot denies he had warning
Breaking news; Russian pilot denies he had warning
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