Mikey, Will Your Town Be Voting Tory Again?

[ToraToraTora]

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2016-wales-36058382

[mikey4444]

Highly unlikely TTT !

The Tories are about as popular in Wales as a Rat Sandwich, as a previous Leader of Plaid Cymru said a few years ago

( actually, he was referring to John Redwood when he was foisted on us as Governor General by the Tory Party in Westminster, which even other Tories had to agree with ....He wasn't even a Welsh Tory MP ! )

First of all, the Tories would have to gain overall control of the Welsh Assembly Government, of which there is no sign whatsoever at the moment.

At present, the Tories hold just 14 seats out of a possible 60, with Plaid Cymru coming a close third with 11 seats. In 2011, Labour gained a significant amount of seats and currently hold 30.

Also, the Welsh Tories hold just 8 seats at Westminster, out of a total of 40.

So, if the Tories are suddenly going to become suddenly awfully popular, they have a great deal left to do. This "bribe" that they are promising won't fool the Welsh, anymore than previous promises did.

[ToraToraTora]

yeah but tuppence off tax......

[mikey4444]

Sounds marvelous TTT doesn't it ? But Wales is not a rich country like England, so why have the Tories not promised a 2p reduction there ?

Anyway, differential rates of income tax for different parts of the UK may now be possible but my personal view is that it would be unworkable, but I may be proved wrong in the future of course.

[mikey4444]

Jam tomorrow and jam yesterday – but never jam today !

[ToraToraTora]

yes unworkable, all the devolution cobblers is silly anyway, just creates batches of snout in trough politicians that we don't need.

[Togo]

I think you will find that North and Mid Wales may provide the answer to the Assembly conundrum. After taking the Vale of Clwyd seat in the General Election, Aberconwy, Delyn, and Wrexham are almost certain to swing to Tory. The old outdated Lib Dem seats are also more likely to swing to Tory, whilst Labour may well lose votes to UKIP this time round. The people of Wales are not stupid, and have recognised the harm done to the Education and Health services in Wales by the mismanagement of Labour administration. Despite having more money, services have deteriorated, whilst officialdom and a culture of self preservation has become entrenched in all the management regimes.

[mikey4444]

TTT...I am tempted to agree with you, partially at least !

But devolution was the only way to ensure that the Tories, never gaining the popular vote in Wales, would be unlikely to be in charge down here again.

I am English but have lived in Wales for nearly 50 years this summer. I am not a supporter of Welsh nationalism at all, but I sympathised with my fellow citizens when Redwood was appointed as Welsh Secretary in 1993.

He was an MP for Wokingham, with no connection to Wales whatsoever. He really was as popular as that rat sandwich :::

"Redwood consequently gained a somewhat haughty reputation with apparent disregard for national feeling; this did not endear him further to some of the population, most memorably when in 1995 he returned £100,000,000 of Wales's block grant to the Treasury unspent"

The arrogance of the Tories, in appointing someone like him into such an important position in Cardiff was breath-taking. Can you imagine the fuss that there would have been if they attempted the same thing in Scotland !

So its no wonder that the Tories are disliked so much this side of the Severn Bridge.

[mikey4444]

Togo...the Welsh are indeed not stupid, but they have long memories and as such, will never return a majority Tory vote. Once bitten, twice shy.

I still maintain that they have a long way to go.

[Svejk]

^Yeah, it would be like having a Scottish or Welsh PM.

[Togo]

//A YouGov survey for the Wales Governance Centre and ITV Wales appears to show Nigel Farage's party has retained its momentum in Wales from the European elections, which saw it narrowly miss out to Labour on topping the poll, while the Welsh Liberal Democrats are projected to lose all their AMs apart from leader Kirsty Williams.
It also continues a trend of gradually sliding support for Labour, with the party’s support slipping in voting intentions for both the 2016 Cardiff Bay and Westminster elections next year.//

I predict that
Labour will lose 8 seats giving them 22.
Tories will gain 4 giving them 18
Plaid will gain 4 giving them 13
Ukip will gain 6 giving them 6
Lib Dems will lose 4 giving them 1

[mikey4444]

Interesting prediction Togo ! But UKIP, going from 0 to 6 ?

By the way, have you any connection to Wales?....I don't recall you saying that you lived here.

[Khandro]

According to Togo's YouGov stats, UKIP going from 0 to 6 is a fantastic 600% increase, quite stunning wouldn't you say?

[Togo]

Mikey I have lived in N Wales since 1968. I have indeed mentioned the fact on numerous occasions. I can even siarad Cymraeg.(ychydig bach)

[Togo]

Thank you TTT. Khandro they are not actually YouGov predictions. They are mine, based on a number of straw polls that I have looked at over the last few weeks.

[mikey4444]

Thanks Togo...I must have missed that......Well done for mastering the Welsh language by the way !

Hope you enjoy this next YouTube clip of Rob Brydon !

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2pBXf08Nm3Q

[Togo]

Lol I wouldn't say mastered mikey. I found it useful when my job took me onto Món, or down the Llyn, and particularly down towards Machynllech and surrounding areas. I found that, if I at least made the effort, the Welsh people were more open and easier to get along with. My daughter, the consultant Doctor, is fluent and indeed used to dream in Welsh as a girl.

[Togo]

Just a little aside mikey, my middle name, my Father's, my 5 brothers and my son's middle name is that of a peninsular found not far from you. Sorry for diverting TTT.

[mikey4444]

Gower is a very old Welsh name Togo !

Originally Gwyr, and changed into Gower after the Normans spread out along southern Wales. Funnily enough though, the peninsula of the same name was spilt north and south into Welsh Gower and English Gower, still to be seen today in place names.

Apologies also to TTT !

[jim360]

It may be of comfort to Khandro to know that UKIP's predicted 0 to 6 rise isn't a 600% increase, but far, far larger than that! It's actually an infinite percentage increase... (1 to 7 would be 600%).

[mikey4444]

Jim ( smarty pants ! )

Whatever it is, its still an awfully big increase, for a Party, that less than 12 months ago was going to "change the face of British politics"

Still waiting for that change !