The Political Fall Out Of Brexit / Remain

[sp1814]

We've just been talking about this at work...if Britain overwhelmingly votes to leave the EU, then the words 'dead duck' and 'Cameron' will be on the lips of many.

But...if we vote to remain, what impact will this have on UKIP and Farage, and to a lesser extent Boris?

[ichkeria]

A vote to remain will be good for UKIP
And Boris will get a ministerial job: Overseas development or something :-)

[Old_Geezer]

Surely a typo; surely you meant to type "if Britain overwhelmingly votes to remain in the EU, then the words 'dead duck' and 'bloody Cameron' will be on the lips of many."

If we remain I suspect folk will probably carry on as usual.. Farage tried to resign once and he may decide that having got the referendum he'd consider it again, or perhaps not. I think UKIP will continue trying to convince Britain and the council of ministers what an awful thing the EU is and the other countries should all give their citizens a chance to speak. Boris will point out he did his best and then decide what the next step is towards taking of the Tory party when Dave goes. But I don't expect anything too dramatic to any of those you mention.

[Gromit]

If we Leave then the Tory Party will lurch even further right. Cameron will be gone, and so will Osborne. There is so much bad blood in the Conservatives, that a very self distructive fight for the Party will ensue.

If we remain, then UKIP will be rendered irrelevent. But then they always have been, so they will carry on living off the taxpayers by drawing their huge EU salaries and expenses. Cameron will survive, but his party will be totally unmanagable. Many Tories will rebel out of bitterness.

Neither of which will not be good for the country.

[ToraToraTora]

well it could be argued that brexit would mean that UKIP would have achieved its mandate and should disband. So a win for remain would energise UKIP to redouble their efforts. I think Bojo will be unaffected by this and will be the next Tory leader regardless. A win for Dave will make it slightly easier for him to carry on for a bit and leave Bojo, who by then will be buddies again, to continue with the important business of giving Labour a good slapping in 2020.

[Svejk]

If we remain UKIP will receive 8 million votes at the next election. A lot of Labour supporters have been abandoned by their party and they won't forget or forgive. (and, perhaps to a lesser extent, Conservatives)

[retrocop]

Gromit
UKIP MEP Nigel Farage moght claim his salary and expenses but so does every other party MEP! Big difference though. Nigel is more than happy to lose that and stand by his primcipals for the good of his country i.e to leave . He woks tirelessly and drives weekly to Brussels unlike other faceless British MEPs who do sfa amd happy to jump on the gravy train. Kinnock and his poncing family clan spring to mind!! Nigel can always get a job. He has worked for many years in the Finance. Industry unlike the Eton toffs who are not qualified in anything and could'nt tell you the price of a pint of milk!!

[Bazile]

^^^^^

So , your'e not a fan then

[retrocop]

Svejk
If what you say is true then there is a small silver cloud should we destroy our country and remain. God forbid but when I stop crying in my beer my hand will , from then on, be hovering over the X box in every election that UKIP fields candidates!!

[jim360]

It might be that UKIP's fortunes rise either way. After all, Scotland said no to Independence and the SNP has enjoyed the result rather a lot more since then than the "winning" side.

[anotheoldgit]

If we remain it will see a rise of the Far-Right in this country, but it is fortunate that the possibility of getting rid of Cameron, will convince some of the now 'don't knows' to vote to come out.

[Hopkirk]

Surely UKIP is finished whatever the result.

Their purpose really has been to get a referendum.

Why would anyone vote for them at the next election?

[Old_Geezer]

If the referendum doomed us to umpteen more years of EU then they could suggest to voters that if they were to form the government they could start exit proceedings anyway. Plus there is getting a presence in the Council and reminding the countries there how awful the EU is and how they ought to exit.

[youngmafbog]

Hopkirk. Read jims post above.

I think he has nailed it there.

[Hopkirk]

I don't think you can compare UKIP and the SNP.

[ToraToraTora]

Hopkirk: "Surely UKIP is finished whatever the result.

Their purpose really has been to get a referendum.

Why would anyone vote for them at the next election? " - err no, the clue is in the name, they are not the "referendum party". They are the IK independence party, when we are independent then thay have achieved their aim.

They will be very powerful at the next election if we remain.

[whiskeryron]

// If we remain UKIP will receive 8 million votes at the next election. A lot of Labour supporters have been abandoned by their party and they won't forget or forgive. (and, perhaps to a lesser extent, Conservatives) // The irony is that because of our odd system of voting 8 million votes wouldn't buy you a box of matches.

[Hopkirk]

Last genreal election UKIP got one MP.

I confidently predict that at the next election they will get none.

[jim360]

It's true that UKIP would have to keep any surge in support after the referendum going for another three years. I don't think that's impossible. For myself I'd rather see them disappear from politics, but I expect that there are rather a lot more who'd switch to supporting UKIP.

Indeed, the parallels to the SNP may be even greater. The SNP won support from disgruntled Labour voters who saw Scottish Labour "betray them" out of support for independence and alliance with the reviled Tory party. This referendum has seen Tories mostly "betray" any of their Eurosceptic supporters (the party appears to be roughly split down the middle), and along the way have stood on the same side as the reviled Labour party. What incentive would such people have to stay Tory or switch to Labour?

[Jackdaw33]

One can only speculate what the result might have been last year if the Tories had not promised a referendum.

[DTCwordfan]

Theresa May to become Prime Minister - she's kept her head low on this and her powder dry.

I think I am going to see what odds are on for both Cameron and Corbyn going in the next six months.