Do You Think There Should Be A Snap Election This Year?

[sp1814]

The Tory party is currently enjoying a 16 point lead over Labour.

Should May strike whilst the iron is hot, taking advantage of the honeymoon period and Labour's current woes?

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/speculation-over-snap-election-as-tories-take-16-point-lead-in-polls-a7157371.html

[jim360]

The last thing the Tories want to do is hand power to Corbyn's social movement, or whatever it is his supporters are pretending is going to happen.

More seriously, though, this would give an opportunity for the SNP to stand on an explicit manifesto of "stay in the EU or give us Independence", and if they did manage to grab all 59 seats on that, how the heck can this be ignored? All that said I wouldn't mind having a general election now but in practice it would surely cause more problems than it solves, handing an artificially large majority to the Tories and providing exactly the uncertainty that we'd just been enjoying following the uncontested Tory leadership election.

I'd suggest maybe an election would be more appropriate nearer the time when either (a) we trigger Article 50, on a ticket of establishing who we want to lead the negotiations on our behalf, or (b) the two-year negotiations are about to conclude/ have just concluded, to decide who leads us at the start of our post-EU period.

[youngmafbog]

May cannot do that though can she under the new rules.

And I doubt labour would want to go for a GE.

[Gromit]

Labour will be in a mess for a long time, so there is no rush to take advantage of them.
I think there will be an election before 2020, maybe next spring.
I reckon a 'New Deal' on our EU membership will be worked out, and the Government will favour that than Brexit. An election will be called, and the Conservatives will stand on a 'Do not invoke Art 50' ticket. The Tories will win the General Election, and then Parliament will vote to stay in the EU on more favourable terms.

[Old_Geezer]

It's too early to know which, if any of them, can be trusted with another 5 years of rule. And it'd be nice to avoid coalitions.

[ludwig]

// I reckon a 'New Deal' on our EU membership will be worked out, and the Government will favour that than Brexit. //

It wouldn't surprise me. When the people annoyingly deliver the 'incorrect' result in a referendum, governments find ways to ignore it.

[New Judge]

"I think there will be an election before 2020, maybe next spring. "

Wishful thinking. As I have said before (and as has been mentioned here) to dissolve Parliament will require the co-operation of at least 42 Labour MPs (and in reality probably a lot more than that). I cannot see any Labour MP voting to dissolve Parliament in the forseeable future.

[youngmafbog]

Early elections can take place if a two-thirds majority of MPs agree, or if the government loses a motion of no confidence and isn't replaced quickly.

Labour wont vote for one so it is a moot point.

[youngmafbog]

Sorry NJ, cross posted.

[Old_Geezer]

Can it not simply call a vote of no confidence in itself and vote itself out ?

[mikey4444]

SP....I was of the impression that what you suggest is no longer possible, unless under very special circumstances.

[Gromit]

If 42 votes are needed to trigger an election, the SNP could supply that. It would be in their interest to scupper Brexit and remain in the EU, and May might offer them even great autonomy as a sweetner.

[New Judge]

"Can it not simply call a vote of no confidence in itself and vote itself out ? "

It's certainly a novel idea, OG and one that, as far as I can see, is compatible with the Fixed Term Parliament act. I don't know that there is a precedent for a government instigating a motion of no confidence in itself. The FTP Act was clearly a sop to the LibDems to keep them onside when the Coalition ws being formed. It was likely that Mr Cameron may have called an early election without it thus forcing Mr Clegg to relinquish the spare keys to No 10. Of course the simplest way get round the problem would be for the Government to repeal the FTP Act.

[jim360]

"Of course the simplest way get round the problem would be for the Government to repeal the FTP Act."

It's one of those quirks of our democracy I'm not sure I totally feel comfortable with that this act requires a super-majority to dissolve Parliament (and so relies on the cooperation of the opposition), or the government can just call for a vote to scrap it, requiring only a simple majority, and then call an election the day after.

I don't know which is better for democracy out of fixed-term and flexible-term parliaments with no more than five years between elections, but if you are going to go for the former then I'm not sure that we should allow such a stupid loophole to exist.

[Jackdaw33]

An attempt was made in the last parliament to repeal the Act but was heavily defeated.

[jim360]

That's as may be, although the circumstances may be different this time -- particularly as the Conservatives would almost certainly increase their majority if an election were held within the next six months (while Labour is in chaos but before negotiating a deal that may not reflect what anyone really wanted).

[Jackdaw33]

The other problem is that they will want to wait until the boundaries are redrawn as this will benefit the Tories further.

[jim360]

Oh yeah, forgot about the gerrymandering that's part of our system too...*

I suppose at least Brexit gives us a greater opportunity to expose the many problems in our own democracy and sort them out this time. But I'm not holding my breath.

*To be fair to the Tories, the boundary changes coming redress the balance from a system biased in Labour's favour, so it's more the principle I'm objecting to here that this shouldn't even be a thing.

[ichkeria]

Although I wouldn't be averse to a general election or would be shameful opportunism by the Tories after all the fanfare about fixed term parliaments
And is unlikely to be voted for as others have said
In any case, why would May risk an election now when it might well become effectively another EU referendum ...

[ToraToraTora]

No, and it's not up to the PM anyway. The next election is in May 2020, not before, it is not in anyone in the commons interest anyway, especially Labour. I love Gromit's cloud Cuckoo land predictions as an ever more convoluted desperate way of not Brexiting. Gromit, the public voted brexit, the last 2 PMs have already pledged to implement that decision. Stop dreaming.

[sp1814]

TTT

Are you sure?

I thought the rule was that the next election had to be held by May 2020' rather than it being in May 2020.