Early Election - Why Not ?

[Bazile]

Why doesn't the PM call an early election ,instead of waiting until 2020 .

She would win hands down .

[Peter Pedant]

// The Labour Party needs another Tony Blair //

o m g there is someone in the country who thinks we need a tony blair ( another one I mean )

[mikey4444]

The Fixed Term Parliaments Act of 2011 stops Mrs May from calling an early election, unless she loses a vote of no confidence, which is unlikely given her majority.

The Act was brought in especially to stop opportunist elections like Bazile is suggesting.

[Arrods]

....and anyway, I guess she's got more important things to attend to.

[naomi24]

Waste of time and money.

[New Judge]

It’s all a bit academic.

The Fixed Term Parliament Act is a major obstacle. There’s only three ways to secure a General Election before May 2020:

1. A successful motion of “no-confidence in the government”. This requires the support of 326 MPs in the Commons. There are currently 319 non-Tory MPs meaning that seven Tory MPs will have to support a motion of no confidence in their own party’s administration.

2. Two thirds of MPs must agree to an early election. This requires 434 votes. Assuming all the Tory MPs (331) will be whipped to support the vote this means 103 more are required. It is extremely unlikely that either Labour (because of their current troubles) or the SNP (because they have only 3 seats to gain and 56 to lose) will support the move. There are only 31 MPs not representing the Tories, Labour or the SNP.

3. The Fixed Term Parliament Act must be repealed (326 votes needed). The stumbling block here is that the Lords would also have to agree to the Act’s repeal and they probably wouldn’t (they seem to be obstructive in most matters of importance). This would mean a lengthy process which would probably involve the Government invoking the Parliament Act to force the measure through and they may well consider it not worth the bother (as they have more important things to concern them).

All in all, a bit of a non-starter to resolve a situation brought about by Mr Cameron’s spineless acquiescence to the LibDems in 2010.

[jim360]

Chin up, NJ, there's a review on the Act scheduled for late 2020, so it might be repealed in a few years anyway.

[mikey4444]

The Act appears to here to stay then NJ.....and it was brought in by a Tory Government.

[Bazile]

So it appears that any labour voter and Parliamentary MP's who are not enamoured by Corbyn's leadership are going to have to put up with him for a few more years .

What a prospect

[jim360]

Careful Bazile, sarcasm about our glorious leader may be outlawed soon, as it was in North Korea.

[jno]

well, I haven't been asked what I think of May's leadership of the entire country - she got her job with I think 99 votes - but I'll have to put up with her too.

[mikey4444]

Bazile....the same could be said for Tory supporters, who are not enamoured with her Leadership of the Party....after all, she was elected as an MP but not as a PM.

For instance, her plans to take secondary education back in time to the 1950's is not popular with all in her Party, and it certainly won't be easy to get through the House of Lords.

So the Act works both ways it would seem.

[EDDIE51]

New Judge has pointed out what I was intending to say. That calling an early election is impossible.

[EDDIE51]

Bazile, if by some means it was possible to have yet another Labour party leadership election ALL that would happen is that Corbyn would win again by an even larger majority ! Remember his 62% win was only after the parliamentary labour party had done everything in its power and more! to disqualify as many of his supporters as possible. If it had really been a free and fair election he would have had over a 75% majority!

[ToraToraTora]

1) It's not up to the PM
2) She'd win hands down in 2020 anyway
3) The anti British would try to use it to welch on brexit.

[Bazile]

Indeed Eddie - Which is partly why i raised the question .

Because for labour supporters , who don't want Corbyn as leader ; the most likely event that will unseat him is a general election which the labour party would lose .

Surely then, he would have to go

[DTCwordfan]

well there's been a split apparently - surprise, surprise - over Trident again....the Corbyn losing on this one.

[Dee-M-See]

And David Cameron thought we would vote to stay in Europe
So I don't know if hands down would be so sure

[New Judge]

“The Act was brought in especially to stop opportunist elections like Bazile is suggesting.”

“The Act appears to here to stay then NJ.....and it was brought in by a Tory Government.”

Not quite correct on either count, Mikey. The Act was brought in as part of a package which included such other wiz-prang ideas such as kicking the boundary changes into touch and holding a referendum on AV. It was introduced to ensure the Coalition government (and hence Mr Clegg’s possession of the spare keys to No.10) would last more than a few months. It was brought in not by a Tory government but by the Coalition. Had there been a solely Tory government the idea would not have crossed their minds.

Of course, had Mr Cameron beein in posession of a backbone he should have formed a minority government, suffered a few defeats in the Commons and called a second General Election after a few months. But that’s all history and the politicians – and indeed the electorate – are stuck with this nonsense for at least four more years and in all probability a lot longer than that.

[Jackdaw33]

Correct as usual, NJ. That's what Wilson did in 1974 but that option is no longer available.

[Jackdaw33]

Incidentally, that option was open to Heath at the same time.