If Brexit Doesn't Happen..

[ludwig]

..will an angry electorate deliver yet another shock result in the form of a Labour victory at the next election in order to punish the Tories that a) gave them the referendum in the first place for purely self serving reasons and then b) Conspired to weasel their way out of implementing the result when it turned out to be the one they weren't expecting ?

Anything seems possible in these unpredictable times.

[ichkeria]

But 'the electorate' only support Brexit by a small margin. Admittedly, it is probably fair to discount the voters of Scotland and N Ireland for the purposes of a general election, but it still isn't a huge groundswell.
And who knows where the situation will be by 2020. It may be that the prospect of Brexit will be looking less favourable by then. Maybe maybe not

[jim360]

Hmm.

Depends on who's doing the obstructing. For example, the SNP MPs are likely to vote to block Brexit, but are hardly going to be punished for upholding the will of Scottish voters in the referendum, so that's not going to help the government. Plaid Cymru might vote against but they have basically no MPs anyway so who cares? That leaves Labour and the Lib Dems -- for Lib Dems, they are pitching themselves as the party of the 48%, and on that basis I would expect to see their support go up in 2020, rather than down.

Only Labour and the Tories can be hurt by blocking of Article 50, therefore. I think it would backfire on the Tories more, because they hold the majority in Parliament that should be enough to force through the legislation -- ergo, it would be entirely fair to say that Brexit, if it was blocked in Parliament after all, was blocked by disgruntled Tories rather than by Labour.

There's a lot that can happen in 2020, anyway. Heck, a Tory landslide is possible too. What I would say is that trying to rule out a Labour (Corbyn) victory is premature. Labour wouldn't have needed Scotland in 1997, for example, to hold a majority.

[jim360]

A UKIP landslide isn't "most likely" -- I agree it's also possible, but the mathematics doesn't really support it being the most likely outcome. I'd have to study this further, but the swing required is I think insanely large and would have to happen on massive scales. The problem UKIP faced last year was that their 4 million votes were evenly spread, not concentrated, so it makes some sense to suggest that their popular vote gains would be similarly spread nationally. Broad national support without local focus doesn't really win elections.

Besides, UKIP as a political party is also in a bit of a mess right now.

[Jackdaw33]

All hypothetical. Brexit will happen. It may take longer than at first thought but it WILL happen.

[ichkeria]

Old geezer I am not a betting man, but I am willing to wager that the number of Remain voters who'd vote UKIP in 2020 because Brexit had not happened would be likely around the zero mark. And that's assuming their party is still afloat by then:as it stands their main donor is poised to drop them and the EU is trying to recoup money it claims was fraudulently used by them for domestic electioneering.
Referendums can be good, but this one was a bad idea: an over simplified binary choice, which many people by their own admission felt unqualified to vote on, with Leave based on the wholly spurious and dishonest promise that the U.K. could just depart, like that. So on the one hand project fear, on the other project freedom. And now we're landed with a situation where a government is having to proceed with a ruinous and expensive process for fear of being branded 'undemocratic'

[EDDIE51]

I disagree that if Brexit is blocked there will be a UKIP landslide, they MAY get at most 4 or 5 Mps which I suppose is a landslide in their eyes but not to the rest of us or the government.

[Old_Geezer]

We can disagree about whether the process is an amazingly large benefit or ruinous, but this is supposed to be a democratic country, the government is supposed ot be a democratic government. If they do not proceed they won't be simply branded undemocratic, the fact that they are undemocratic and do not care for, respect, nor represent the people, will be plain for all to see.

[ichkeria]

I disagree. Some people will probably think that. Yet the most likely scenario I think by 2020 is that the UK will have either partly left the EU or be on the way to doing so. And some leavers will be happy with that and some won't . The extent to which that will matter is impossible to say now

[naomi24]

OG, but what if they're prevented from proceeding by those who oppose Brexit - the majority of MPs? Where is democracy then?

[mikey4444]

According to some on here, there will be unrest on the streets of Britain if BREXIR doesn't happen, and happen quickly.

OG.........I will make a prediction that that there will never be an UKIP landslide ! They can't even get half a dozen of their own members in a room together, without fisticuffs breaking out, let alone win 100's of seats at Westminster

Apart from UKIP, nobody wanted BREXIT. And they still don't.

[mikey4444]

Eddie....UKIP...4-5 seats ?

Don't know who would be more surprised, the Bookies or UKIP itself !

[naomi24]

Mikey, //Apart from UKIP, nobody wanted BREXIT. And they still don't. //

More than half the people who voted wanted it - and still do.

[Jackdaw33]

Nobody wanted Brexit apart from UKIP? Come off it. I'm not UKIP and I'm passionate about Brexit.

[mikey4444]

No other Party Jack.

[EDDIE51]

100% agree with mikey ^

[ichkeria]

There was the DUP mikey
The DUP were in fact the only 'ruling' party in the U.K. which supported it. And of course was defeated :-) Only in Scotland did the will of the main party prevail

[Old_Geezer]

UKIP came second in 120 constituencies last general election. Wouldn't take much outrage to take most of them then. That would be somewhat more than 4 to 5 MPs there alone.

Then add in those who when their grandchildren ask, "What did you do in this country's "great vote for democracy" when you were younger, who don't want to respond, "I didn't care for democracy, (or the status of my nation for that matter) I just wanted a second bite of the cherry at getting what I wanted", and that should rise a deal further.

[jim360]

I'll have to check the electoral arithmetic more thoroughly, but the point really is the same: UKIP have too far to go in practical terms to become the largest party in either vote share or number of seats for a landslide to be, at the very least, the most probable outcome. It can happen for sure, but no way is it the most likely.

It seems to me that this argument would, by extension, imply that 2020 may see the house split between UKIP (for the Brexit supporters) and the Lib Dems (standing up for the 48% of Remainers), leaving no other party with a look in (other than perhaps the SNP). But Party loyalty will win over a single issue in any general election, ergo this particular scenario is impossible in practice.

I'd expect both parties to make gains, but by and large the house will be split between Labour and the Tories, as before.

[EDDIE51]

Thanks jim, a calm voice of reason. Wish there were a few more!

[hereIam]

Jackdaw at 12:39 - hope you are right.