Brexit So Far

[sunny-dave]

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-36956418

I may regret raising this point - but live in hope that we can avoid any stereotypical insults.

It does rather seem that all the economic woe that was predicted has conspicuously failed to happen (at least so far).

We have been bombarded with "we're all doomed, I tell ye" forecasts, from every frog and his dog - but when it comes to actual hard numbers nothing seems anywhere near as bad as predicted.

In fact most of the figures are better than those predicted when a 'stay' vote was expected. Even the falling pound has many economic advantages (although my holidays may cost a bit more).

Do you have any belief in the gloom mongers - are we in a phoney war situation and it will all go titsup soon enough?

Or are they dancing to a tune promulgated by an angry metropolitan elite that is determined to put the electorate in its place?

[mikey4444]

Sunny....as we haven't actually done anything yet, then its not terribly surprising that nothing has actually happened !

The real truth is that no one really knows what will happen when we leave, as nobody has ever done so before. I suspect that there will be advantages as well as disadvantages, but what they will actually turn out to be in detail has yet to be shown.

[youngmafbog]

Your last sentence pretty much sums it up.

As I have pointed out we will never know if we would have done better or worse (assuming the Euro stays afloat) since many external factors will occur that we have no knowledge of (Like The Donalds election success). This was of course always the case.

[youngmafbog]

Yes Mickey but many of the Doomongers stated near apoplectic collapse from the minute the vote was held.

[mikey4444]

YMB....there was a lot of hot air expelled by both sides in the lead up to the Ref. and its still continuing now.

Maybe it will be akin to what Zhou Enlai said when he was asked what he thought of the French Revolution.....

"its too early to tell"

[sunny-dave]

If everyone was couching their predictions in your measured tones, mikey, I'd have no issue with them - but regrettably they rarely do.

So many predictions are just of unmitigated disaster - and then, after every set of figures shows that this isn't so, the arrival date for post-brexit apocalypse is just moved a bit further down the road.

[rockyracoon]

It think it's in a lot of people's nature to moan about change. When new systems are brought into the work place everyone umms and ahhs about the potential pitfalls, but things usually have a way of turning themselves around. I'm certainly not worrying.

[mikey4444]

Sunny...asking me to vote in the Ref. wasn't like asking me to vote in a General Election.

My gut reaction was to remain, and that really hasn't changed since last June.
But if were to ask me exactly why, I would be pushed to give you an unequivocal answer......it was a decision from the heart, not necessarily from the wallet, or the brain.

I'm not sure what else I can really on this subject !

[TWR]

I voted out, what will happen, I don't know but happen it will " Some Time"

[mikey4444]

TWR....difficult to argue with you there !

[4candles]

Michael Gove has been castigated for saying that we've had enough of experts, but his remark has been misconstrued. Most experts are fine in their field on a day to day basis.

Problems arise when they make predictions of the future - especially financial, economic and polling predictions!

As mikey suggests - nobody knows.

[New Judge]

And there’s a lot more to Brexit than simple economics. In fact, for me personally that was a minor consideration. For many who voted to Leave it was more to do with regaining control of the UK and to cease being subservient to an unelected foreign regime. It was about being able to make decisions that are in the best interests of the UK and the UK alone without having to consider the needs and wishes of 27 other very disparate nations. If it means we are a few bob worse off (yet to be demonstrated) then it is a price well worth paying.

“But if were to ask me exactly why, I would be pushed to give you an unequivocal answer.”

That does not surprise me at all, Mikey. Among the very few people I spoke to who planned to vote Remain, few if any of them could provide a valid reason. They stemmed from “Better the Devil you Know” through “Leaving will be very difficult”, “I prefer the status quo”, “We’re alright as we are” up to “I won’t be able to travel to Europe any more”. Few Remainers seemed to have thought through their decision but seemed to concentrate, unnecessarily, on the threats of economic Armageddon.

[Patsy33]

I suspect the latter sunny dave..

[mikey4444]

NJ....few BREXITEERS gave the bigger issue much thought either.

A lot of the people I spoke to gave their reason to leave as primarily about
"all the foreigners we have in Britain now" or variations of the same theme.

This was despite all the evidence pointing towards our need for immigrant workers to do the task that our own unemployed refuse to do, because living on the dole is a better option.....I am surrounded by people of my estate that can but don't work.

[TWR]

Mikey, there is an answer to the people that either refuse to work, will not work & I'm referring to the people that are capable of work, again reduce their benefits, do not pay them Money directly but with Tokens that can not be exchanged for Monies, their Rent as before paid to the Housing Association or their landlords, I voted to leave because of the EU rules dished out by unelected fools, I also voted to get our Borders back to reality & to "know" who IS IN this Country.

[New Judge]

We’re going over very old ground, Mikey, but I have to say that I do not know any “Leaver” (and virtually all my family and friends are of that persuasion) who said they wanted out because of "all the foreigners we have in Britain now". Most of them wanted the UK government to regain the right to say who does and does not settle here – a different thing entirely although I can understand that the two may become muddled. I was one of them and I appreciate that little or nothing can be done about those already legally here. And nor should there be. They came here in good faith, under the rules prevailing when they did so and it would be unfair in the extreme to insist they return “Home”. I don’t expect this to happen and nor do I expect ex-pats living elsewhere in the EU to suffer a similar fate.

The country needs to develop a fresh model which does not depend on an unlimited supply of foreign labour being imported to fill job vacancies. The benefit system needs to be reformed so that those who will not work are kept in extreme poverty and the education system needs to be reformed so that young people are capable of undertaking the jobs available.

[Old_Geezer]

It is occasionally mentioned that we have not done anything yet so that is why any consequence has not occurred. A couple of possible issues with that is that remainers spreading predictions of gloom didn't seem to think that was/is a reason to qualify their message so why should anyone else think it relevant either ? Also, markets/investors are interested in predicting situations before they develop and it isn't true we haven't done anything, we've decided to leave the EU. If that was the disaster remainers claim then one would expect to see investor/market reaction already, as they can not afford to be caught off guard. They know all situations have opportunities, none more so than a changing one. Fractionally higher risk during change but good rewards if one sees which way the wind blows. Undoubtedly markets will continue to fluctuate forevermore, but it seems that the predictions of instant doom and gloom and becoming a third world economy have been shown up for the nonsense that they always were.

[sunny-dave]

Nicely put OG - my thoughts in a nutshell

[mikey4444]

NJ....you need to talk to more ordinary working class people then. Most of those people that I met based their decision on the foreigner issue. We obviously move in different circles !

But you are right about the new model. We should stop giving the impression that people can quite happily live on benefits for their complete lives, which is what an awful lot people seem to think now.

I'm fed up with supporting them. I want my hard earned taxes to go to the old, the disabled and the genuinely work-seekers. All the fit young men and women who live opposite me on my housing estate are not working, and I can't see any reason why they aren't, above that that they have large families and are therefore able to claim more in benefits that they would earn working.

This isn't a party-political point....various Government, of whatever sort of hue, have one nothing about this situation, and until they do, we will need immigrants to do the jobs that our feckless wastrels won't do.

[New Judge]

"This isn't a party-political point....various Government, of whatever sort of hue, have one nothing about this situation, and until they do, we will need immigrants to do the jobs that our feckless wastrels won't do."

Agree 110% Mikey - especially with the sentiment but also that it is not a party political issue. All persuasions are equally to blame for this ridiculous situation.

[EDDIE51]

As I posted at the time,the reasons I heard for a 'Leave' vote were
Because I hate that B******d Cameron, 2 votes
Because it was Thatcher what got us in it, 2 votes
But top of the league>> 'To get rid of the bloody immigrants'! 12 votes!