The Seats That Could Decide The Election

[mikey4444]

Most marginal seats in the UK - based on 2015 results

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-39655379

Nice to see mine at the top of the page !

[youngmafbog]

As ever it will be middle England (Mondeo man) that decides the Government.

The likes you you and I wont change our minds will we ! :-)

[mikey4444]

No, of course not !

In Gower, it was mainly the rise of UKIP, and the collapse of the LibDems, that sealed Labour's fate, not really the sudden popularity of the Tories ::

2010 :::

Labour.........16,016
Tory..............13,333
UKIP.............652
LibDem.........7947

2015 :::::

Labour.........15,835
Tory..............15,862
UKIP..............4773
LibDem..........1552

The Labour vote held up pretty well,......So....all to play for !

[mikey4444]

Now I am off to visit my brother in Hospital, in Cardiff .....back later !

[Hopkirk]

Different times though, Mikey. Will the Lib Dems regain ground? Where will UKIP votes go? I think your lot are in for a sorry time, even in the Gower.

I'm fascinated to see what happens in Scotland.

[mushroom25]

one party state, hopkirk.

[ToraToraTora]

do you think Labour will be able to claw back 27 votes mikey? well in fact you just need 14 former Tory voters to "see the light"

[Deskdiary]

The election has already been decided.

All we're waiting for is to see just how badly Labour fare.

Will it just be a mild drubbing, or are they going to have seven shades of *** kicked out of them?

[emmie]

i don't think its a done deal, you can never say never
in politics.

[DTCwordfan]

How are you going to distribute 2.5 million UKIP votes, mikey - these are the ones that will fuel the Tory landslide, not the destruction of Labour as their votes won't change that much..maybe a small decline.

[DTCwordfan]

so am I, Hopkirk, Tories to gain 5 or 6 (like Kirkcidbrightshire, Angus and Buchan, and East Lothian..), LDss maybe a couple in the Island and in Edinburgh.

[Hopkirk]

Will Jeremy resign?

[ichkeria]

I would be surprised if it's complete meltdown.
There are a few imponderables in this election, one of which is:
how much will the EU referendum result be a factor? Labour is also very strong in many seats which would need an earthquake to shift them. Oddly, where they've really disintegrated is in Scotland, where they have precious little in the way of seats to lose anyway.
But when you have sitting Labours planning to say things like "Vote for me, I'm not like Corbyn, and don't worry we can't win anyway" you realise just how bad it is.
One loses count of the number of times Corbyn's gone on TV and done an interview and the party has had to issue a statement to clarify the confusion his warblings have caused.

[Berniecuddles2]

you leave jeremy alone ..he's doing a splendid job for the tories!

[youngmafbog]

I would never say it is a done deal. As Mr Kinnock what cnhappen if you start celebrating before you actually win.

All is to play for and if May does put keeping the foreign aid budget and ditching the triple lock together with raising taxes then it may all still be to play for. Personally I think she is playing with fire so let's see what the manifesto actually says (for both parties) then we can be a bit more informed on which way it may go.

[douglas9401]

You mean see what we THINK the manifesto says, ymb.
No matter what's written down it seems that ordinary folk misunderstand the weasel words of politicians when it all shakes out.

[cassa333]

I think it can be tricky predicting elections. Anything can and sometimes does.

If I had to say anything it would be watch where the UKIP voters go.

A UKIP vote is a lost vote really because as much as they had over 4 million votes last time they have nothing much else to offer other than snipping at the heals to make sure Brexit happens.

Lib Dems? Well I have never Seen the point of them. They can't decide if they are Conservative or Labour and go wherever they think they can get a bit of cudos from.

Although I think Labour will get a good stuffing you have to be watchful of the hardcore/Momentum. They are as fanatical as any bootstomping fascist dressed up in disarmament robes. If you mobilise enough loud supporters you sweep a tidal wave of insures along with you.

I think it will be a landslide but perhaps not as much as some are predicting.

[mikey4444]

DTC....I can't see UKIP affecting the voting as much as it did in 2015. Its my best guess that the Tories will win on June 8th....its how the other parties fare that will be interesting.

[DTCwordfan]

look at those marginals, mikey, take the UKIP vote and halve it - and redistribute - and then you see impact. The Tories to benefit most, though Labour may also see some swings their way to help shore things up. Can't see the Barren Farron mob benefiting from ex UKIPers.

[-Talbot-]

The Islington North seat has decided the election.

[Hopkirk]

DTC, the LibDems won't pick up many UKIPs admittedly. However the unknown is how many Remoaners are sufficiently peeved to switch to them.

They are the closest thing to anti Brexit, though I sense they have drawn back a bit from the full on remain call.