Quizzes & Puzzles1 min ago
We Knew We Were A Big Contributor But £10B Shortfall?
Which apparently equates to 16% of the budget.
No wonder they don't want us to go.
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They are looking at increasing revenues or cutting farming subsidies.
No wonder they don't want us to go.
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They are looking at increasing revenues or cutting farming subsidies.
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Krom, it wasn't a rebuttal it was a simple reaction to the statement that you made that made me laugh.
We are not insignificant or weakened by leaving. We are by no means the big players we perhaps once were but we are not so small that we cannot negotiate a good deal if the other party were willing to be fair.
You seem to be under the illusion that the EU holds all the cards.
If you take just the first round of negotiations. The EU want legal jurisdiction over UK settled citizens once we leave and think it outrageous that we do not agree.
Who do you think I'm will win this one? I think we will because no right thinking government (other than those in the EU) would allow another to have legal precedents over it laws and people. In fact if you look to any country if you pop over for work or holiday and you break the law you are tried within that jurisdiction. They don't phone up the accused country and ask how do we deal with this? What would you do? They do it how their laws are set out.
This Brexit will not ultimately be about people or laws or money or any of the other things bandied around. It will be about ego and brand.
The EU does not want to loose face. The EU don't actually want to loose a net contributor. The EU want to show the rest of the 27 that it's not a good idea to leave. The EU want to show the world how hardball they can be at getting what they want. The EU wants to punish the U.K. For being so foolhardy.
At the end of the time all the UK wants is to get out and make a better deal. We will still have migration, we will still have trade and we will be able to make a mark in our own right.
If this first shot is anything to go by the EU will bee seen not as some great and wonderful entity it will be seen out in the open in its wolfs clothing. It will be seen as petty, spiteful and unrealistic.
Who will be negotiating from a weakened position then?
We are not insignificant or weakened by leaving. We are by no means the big players we perhaps once were but we are not so small that we cannot negotiate a good deal if the other party were willing to be fair.
You seem to be under the illusion that the EU holds all the cards.
If you take just the first round of negotiations. The EU want legal jurisdiction over UK settled citizens once we leave and think it outrageous that we do not agree.
Who do you think I'm will win this one? I think we will because no right thinking government (other than those in the EU) would allow another to have legal precedents over it laws and people. In fact if you look to any country if you pop over for work or holiday and you break the law you are tried within that jurisdiction. They don't phone up the accused country and ask how do we deal with this? What would you do? They do it how their laws are set out.
This Brexit will not ultimately be about people or laws or money or any of the other things bandied around. It will be about ego and brand.
The EU does not want to loose face. The EU don't actually want to loose a net contributor. The EU want to show the rest of the 27 that it's not a good idea to leave. The EU want to show the world how hardball they can be at getting what they want. The EU wants to punish the U.K. For being so foolhardy.
At the end of the time all the UK wants is to get out and make a better deal. We will still have migration, we will still have trade and we will be able to make a mark in our own right.
If this first shot is anything to go by the EU will bee seen not as some great and wonderful entity it will be seen out in the open in its wolfs clothing. It will be seen as petty, spiteful and unrealistic.
Who will be negotiating from a weakened position then?
Cassa, you have described nothing which gives the UK any leverage in negotiations whatsoever. What do we actually have to negotiate with?
You're right, the EU is going to lose a large contributor. This is a foregone conclusion, it's an integral part of us leaving. Not even the softest of soft Brexits has us regularly contributing to the EU's budget in future. We therefore cannot use it as leverage because those contributions are going at any rate.
What else have we got? The fact that 3m EU citizens are here? Well, they're leaving in increasing numbers because they feel uncertain and (more importantly) unwelcome. Intelligence sharing? This would be cutting off our nose to spite our face. Trade? We do indeed run a trade deficit with the EU, but that bloc still represents some 44% or more of our exports while we represent about 5% of theirs (Brexiteers often quote the raw numbers here without referencing the proportion they are of each party's exports). Even within the Eurozone I believe the highest exporter to Britain is Germany at about 15%.
Even if every nasty thing you've ever read about the EU is true (and I severely doubt it is), even if leaving is good for us in the long-term, the way we have chosen to go about it has put us in an extremely weak negotiating position. It's 26 countries v 1. We have no leverage and appear to have no strategy. The government, furthermore, keeps insisting that we always have the option of WTO trading terms (or "no deal") and yet seem to be in persistent denial about how undesirable that option is.
I'm not "anti-British", cassa. I like the UK, and I'm quite happy to be from it. I like living here, I mostly like the people, I like the culture and the history, and I like the weather. But no amount of patriotism or preening about how lovely Britain is can change my opinion - we've put ourselves in a crap position.
You're right, the EU is going to lose a large contributor. This is a foregone conclusion, it's an integral part of us leaving. Not even the softest of soft Brexits has us regularly contributing to the EU's budget in future. We therefore cannot use it as leverage because those contributions are going at any rate.
What else have we got? The fact that 3m EU citizens are here? Well, they're leaving in increasing numbers because they feel uncertain and (more importantly) unwelcome. Intelligence sharing? This would be cutting off our nose to spite our face. Trade? We do indeed run a trade deficit with the EU, but that bloc still represents some 44% or more of our exports while we represent about 5% of theirs (Brexiteers often quote the raw numbers here without referencing the proportion they are of each party's exports). Even within the Eurozone I believe the highest exporter to Britain is Germany at about 15%.
Even if every nasty thing you've ever read about the EU is true (and I severely doubt it is), even if leaving is good for us in the long-term, the way we have chosen to go about it has put us in an extremely weak negotiating position. It's 26 countries v 1. We have no leverage and appear to have no strategy. The government, furthermore, keeps insisting that we always have the option of WTO trading terms (or "no deal") and yet seem to be in persistent denial about how undesirable that option is.
I'm not "anti-British", cassa. I like the UK, and I'm quite happy to be from it. I like living here, I mostly like the people, I like the culture and the history, and I like the weather. But no amount of patriotism or preening about how lovely Britain is can change my opinion - we've put ourselves in a crap position.
Did you notice though, the Eurocrats say it is too "risky" to cut their pay and perks. So everyone daft enough to want to remain in the pyramid scheme must face cuts.............except them. Thieving chancers are therefore to introduce tax-raising powers across the remaining 27 member vassal states.
Krom, we have as much as the EU have. It doesn't matter that they have 26 countries and we are just one. It is always going to be that. What did you want? For us to wait till some of the others have defected and there were less for us to be up against? We are negotiating with the EU machine. Between them they come to an agreement and we go to the EU. If we also talk to the other 27 countries as well then all the better. They will get it from the horses mouth rather than filtering through press releases.
Areas that are in our mutual best interests such as security will in all likelihood carry on. Best mutual interests will in the end win their slice.
There is little doubt in my mind that we will end up with something better than nothing.
However you seem to be under the delusion that we will get nothing of what we want or need. That security will suddenly devolve to the dark ages. That we will stop welcoming migrant workers here etc etc.
Reciprocal agreement for citizens without EU control here. At the moment they may well feel less secure but that will pass. Clarity and information is what is needed and until the detail has been worked out that is just they way it will be for a while. There will be a time of uncertainty and it is only natural that people get jittery. But it will pass. They will come back if what we offer is what they are looking for.
When will you understand that IF the WTD is better than the final offer from the EU it is simply that. Better. Why for goodness sake do you seem insistent that a worse deal is better than the WTD? For €10b euros I can let you drive my 15 yr old scoda with a dodgy clutch that hasn't had an oil change in a decade or for just €1b euros more you can have a three yr old top of the range mondoe with a full service history.
I understand, in this situation, you are a glass half empty sort and you can't see how it will be full. That is how I felt when Corbyn won so many more seats than originally predicted. It takes a while to get out of that funk.
Areas that are in our mutual best interests such as security will in all likelihood carry on. Best mutual interests will in the end win their slice.
There is little doubt in my mind that we will end up with something better than nothing.
However you seem to be under the delusion that we will get nothing of what we want or need. That security will suddenly devolve to the dark ages. That we will stop welcoming migrant workers here etc etc.
Reciprocal agreement for citizens without EU control here. At the moment they may well feel less secure but that will pass. Clarity and information is what is needed and until the detail has been worked out that is just they way it will be for a while. There will be a time of uncertainty and it is only natural that people get jittery. But it will pass. They will come back if what we offer is what they are looking for.
When will you understand that IF the WTD is better than the final offer from the EU it is simply that. Better. Why for goodness sake do you seem insistent that a worse deal is better than the WTD? For €10b euros I can let you drive my 15 yr old scoda with a dodgy clutch that hasn't had an oil change in a decade or for just €1b euros more you can have a three yr old top of the range mondoe with a full service history.
I understand, in this situation, you are a glass half empty sort and you can't see how it will be full. That is how I felt when Corbyn won so many more seats than originally predicted. It takes a while to get out of that funk.
You're not responding to anything I've said. I didn't bring up security because I thought co-operation would end, I brought it up because I don't think it's a plausible example of leverage. I also don't think that migrants will stop coming to the UK - but it is a fact that the ones who are already here are leaving because they feel less welcome and less certain of their position as a direct consequence of UK policy. I envy your insouciance that everything will be fine and they'll just come back, but alas the future is rather more uncertain than that at the moment.
The reason I am pessimistic is not because I am "a glass half empty sort" or anything so vacuous, it's because I can't think of anything which the UK has to negotiate with. Nor can I see any examples of this in your post. I also don't share your confidence that we'll get a really sweet deal because the EU has a very strong incentive not to do that. It would encourage other members to do the same as us. Certainly I can't see how we'll possibly get a better deal than all the perks of membership with a unique two-thirds rebate on our financial contributions that nobody else gets - which is what we had until last year.
//Why for goodness sake do you seem insistent that a worse deal is better than the WTD?//
I'm not. I just think people seem very cavalier about the latter. A deal from the EU would have to be pretty damn poor to be worse than WTO terms.
The reason I am pessimistic is not because I am "a glass half empty sort" or anything so vacuous, it's because I can't think of anything which the UK has to negotiate with. Nor can I see any examples of this in your post. I also don't share your confidence that we'll get a really sweet deal because the EU has a very strong incentive not to do that. It would encourage other members to do the same as us. Certainly I can't see how we'll possibly get a better deal than all the perks of membership with a unique two-thirds rebate on our financial contributions that nobody else gets - which is what we had until last year.
//Why for goodness sake do you seem insistent that a worse deal is better than the WTD?//
I'm not. I just think people seem very cavalier about the latter. A deal from the EU would have to be pretty damn poor to be worse than WTO terms.
Perhaps we could start by threatening to impose tariffs on BMWs, Mercedes, Renaults, French Wine, Danish bacon, Brussel sprouts....etc.. etc. I am sure you get the picture. Then we may decide to sell all the fish from UK territorial waters to the Japanese and Chinese instead......... No need to go on I'm sure.
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