ChatterBank0 min ago
It's Starting To Look A Little Bleak Again For The Brexiteers.
Heseltine, Major, Clegg , and Blair. all calling for a referendum on the conditions for leaving, if we ever do?.
Even talking about a second referendum.
Even talking about a second referendum.
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Well, there are quite a few people very close to the current government who also think that a referendum may ultimately be the only way out of any future impasse.
What i really don't understand, though, on the subject of "has beens", is how in the name of all that is holy (and indeed quite a lot of unholy things too) do some Tory MPs think that it would be a good idea for David Davis to replace Theresa May - like, now - as PM: here is a man who was at the heart of the Brexit negotiations for months, and who manifestly failed to produce anything of any substance to further a deal with the EU. What do they think he is suddenly going to produce at this late stage, that would make a deal any likelier than it looks now?
What i really don't understand, though, on the subject of "has beens", is how in the name of all that is holy (and indeed quite a lot of unholy things too) do some Tory MPs think that it would be a good idea for David Davis to replace Theresa May - like, now - as PM: here is a man who was at the heart of the Brexit negotiations for months, and who manifestly failed to produce anything of any substance to further a deal with the EU. What do they think he is suddenly going to produce at this late stage, that would make a deal any likelier than it looks now?
There are MPs who genuinely think David Davis could somehow force the EU into accepting a deal. What is remarkable about these negotiations is that 27 governments have been largely united on one side, more or less speaking as one: and a single government on the other side has been riven by division, the reason being of course that the UK is split down the middle on this: and the people charged with doing "Brexit" are reluctant leavers, but the keener leavers have preferred to leave things to the former and merely carp from the sidelines, A state of affairs that leaves the PM in a pretty impossible position.
In any case, as I said earlier, "no deal" does not necessarily mean we would leave: it's not necessarily the default option many seem to think: for a start it would very likely not get through parliament and there might well have to be a referendum or even a general election. Ironically it's this fact that probably gives May some leverage with the fanatics. As for leverage with the EU, I am still putting my money on a deal, but not as much as I was prepared to earlier.
In any case, as I said earlier, "no deal" does not necessarily mean we would leave: it's not necessarily the default option many seem to think: for a start it would very likely not get through parliament and there might well have to be a referendum or even a general election. Ironically it's this fact that probably gives May some leverage with the fanatics. As for leverage with the EU, I am still putting my money on a deal, but not as much as I was prepared to earlier.
“….there are quite a few people very close to the current government who also think that a referendum may ultimately be the only way out of any future impasse.”
Two questions: 1 – who are these people? 2 – What will a second referendum solve if (as I strongly suspect) it will reinforce the decision of the first?
“I'll ask again, what did those who voted to leave expect to happen?”
And I’ll tell you – again. I expected the UK to recover its sovereignty and to be able to take decisions as any normal (i.e. non-EU) country does. That is, to have decisions made by its own Parliament and to have those decisions unencumbered by any foreign body. I expected the EU to want to continue trading with the UK on sensible terms (since it runs an £80bn surplus with us each year). I did not expect the EU to “weaponise” the Irish border issue (which is actually a non-issue and is only being used by the EU in an attempt to force us to remain in some sort of customs union) and if they did I did not expect the UK government to acquiesce to such demands. In short, I expected a “no deal” exit with sensible trading arrangements concluded in the two years following A50. I expected goods travelling into the EU from the UK to be treated in the same way as goods travelling into the EU from elsewhere are treated (i.e. virtually without friction).
“But No Deal does not mean we avoid paying the EU, it just means we are denying ourselves the leverage that £40Billion would clout.”
Well that leverage does not seem to have got us very far up to now.
Two questions: 1 – who are these people? 2 – What will a second referendum solve if (as I strongly suspect) it will reinforce the decision of the first?
“I'll ask again, what did those who voted to leave expect to happen?”
And I’ll tell you – again. I expected the UK to recover its sovereignty and to be able to take decisions as any normal (i.e. non-EU) country does. That is, to have decisions made by its own Parliament and to have those decisions unencumbered by any foreign body. I expected the EU to want to continue trading with the UK on sensible terms (since it runs an £80bn surplus with us each year). I did not expect the EU to “weaponise” the Irish border issue (which is actually a non-issue and is only being used by the EU in an attempt to force us to remain in some sort of customs union) and if they did I did not expect the UK government to acquiesce to such demands. In short, I expected a “no deal” exit with sensible trading arrangements concluded in the two years following A50. I expected goods travelling into the EU from the UK to be treated in the same way as goods travelling into the EU from elsewhere are treated (i.e. virtually without friction).
“But No Deal does not mean we avoid paying the EU, it just means we are denying ourselves the leverage that £40Billion would clout.”
Well that leverage does not seem to have got us very far up to now.
Then there’s the delightful scenario where she comes back with a deal and Brexiteers vote it down in parliament thanks to their empowerment by Gina Miller: therefore potentially scuppering brexit altogether and with it the ‘will of the people’: no wonder Armando Ianucci said he was retiring from doing comic satire. Real life does it better :-)
Indeed. And those calling for a referendum should be aware that there is now insufficient time to get such a bill through Parliament even if there was the will to do so.
In any case, there is no justification for a second referendum. Nothing has changed since the first (other than the EU making leaving very troublesome, which it was always bound to do). Once the decision of the first has been exacted and after a suitable period (say, fifteen to twenty years) then somebody in Parliament may raise the prospect of a referendum for re-joining the EU. By then there will have been some changes. The EU (if it still exists) will have morphed into a federal state with a single unelected government and national parliaments will have less powers than parish councils currently have.
In any case, there is no justification for a second referendum. Nothing has changed since the first (other than the EU making leaving very troublesome, which it was always bound to do). Once the decision of the first has been exacted and after a suitable period (say, fifteen to twenty years) then somebody in Parliament may raise the prospect of a referendum for re-joining the EU. By then there will have been some changes. The EU (if it still exists) will have morphed into a federal state with a single unelected government and national parliaments will have less powers than parish councils currently have.
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