Could There Be A Return To Terror In Ireland?

[Kromovaracun]

https://www.independent.ie/irish-news/dissident-bomb-fuels-fear-of-return-to-terror-after-brexit-37731387.html

A bomb set off in Derry last night has raised fears that a hard Brexit could see an increase in dissident terror. The New IRA is believed to be responsible.

Garda and PSNI have both expressed concern that in the event of a hard border after Brexit, there could be a new surge of violence from dissidents:

//Several key figures in the dissident groups are due for release from prison in the coming months and they are expected to influence a re-organisation as they focus on the fall-out from Brexit.

A hard Border could potentially open up opportunities for them to recruit members and fundraise through smuggling and other criminal activities.

...

The New IRA, formed in 2012, poses the biggest threat from dissident republicans since the Provisional IRA, according to an assessment by the head of the Garda intelligence and security section, Assistant Commissioner Michael O'Sullivan. That assessment is shared by the PSNI, which is also seriously concerned about the impact of a hard Brexit.//

[Ken4155]

I very much doubt that the 'New IRA' will have sufficient funds to maintain a terror campaign of real size and any length of time. And, after so many years of near peaceful co-existence, i also doubt the good people of the Province would support whatever cause the NIRA believe they are fighting for.

[New Judge]

"The DUP (who seen quite happy to be different from GB in other ways) have I believe said they might be happy with a permanent customs union with the EU,..."

That being the case then I believe Mrs May's way forward is simply to recommend to the people of NI that they throw their hat in with the south and cut their ties to the UK. There is no reason why she should try to move an immoveable object if they are so willing to acquiesce to such a situation. If there's to be a second referendum it should be for the people of NI only and the question should be "Do you want to remain part of the UK with all that entails (including ceasing to be part of the EU's Customs Union) or do you want to leave the UK and join the South?"

If their attitude truly is as you describe there's no reason why the rest of the country should fanny around trying to find an accommodation for something they don't want.

[Rockrose]

The majority of NI don’t want to join The Republic of Ireland

[sunny-dave]

The majority of the Irish Republic don’t want NI at any price - let alone the exorbitant one that they’d need to pay to keep NI in the feather-bedded manner to which it has become accustomed ...

[Rockrose]

//NI in the feather-bedded manner to which it has become accustomed ..//
Really!!

[sunny-dave]

From 2016 (even before Mrs May filled the DUP’s mouths with gold) :

https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/governmentpublicsectorandtaxes/publicsectorfinance/articles/countryandregionalpublicsectorfinances/2015to2016

That’s over £5000 per head for every one in the province - no wonder the South doesn’t want you ...

[jim360]

I think it's safe to say that the choice NJ is offering is one of the devil or the deep blue sea. The people of Northern Ireland shouldn't have to be forced to choose "where their loyalty lies", so to speak. Indeed, perhaps it's precisely that attitude that has led to Brexiters ignoring the problems that the Irish border poses.

[ichkeria]

Hmmm another hijacking in the city just now.

The DUP’s possible approach to a customs union and NJ’s reaction to it is fascinating as it shows two of the perspectives of Brexit as no one would doubt the Brexit credentials of either. With such conflicts even within the one side no wonder we’re in a mess. Of course going back the two Leave campaigns hated each other more than the other side.

[ichkeria]

No one likes us we don’t care eh sunny dive

[Old_Geezer]

There are no problems with the Irish border save those created by an intransigent EU, troublemaking remoaners, and those believing in project fear stories. There's nothing stoping both sides of the border leaving it open, no border checks, and ensuring monitoring and paperwork allows everyone's red lines to be met. Just needs both sides to get real and agree. Some are deliberately using the illusion of a problem as an excuse for their bad behaviour.

[jim360]

Not really the intransigence of the EU, since it's the Republic of Ireland that insists on the backstop; nor is it the problem of Remainers, as it is merely pointing out the logical contradictions in Leave campaigners' own position; namely, that of wanting to "take back control" of the borders whilst simultaneously ignoring the only land border that exists between the UK and EU.

Apart from being entirely wrong you have a point, though :/

[Rockrose]

Perhaps you could be so kind to tell us where the money is spent Dave. We have the largest nhs waiting lists and missed targets

[jim360]

"There's nothing stoping both sides of the border leaving it open, no border checks, and ensuring monitoring and paperwork allows everyone's red lines to be met."

There is, though, and that is the insistence that the UK leave the Customs Union. It is practically impossible to maintain separate Customs arrangements if you are going to leave an open border. That is the problem. It isn't project Fear; it is not intransigence; it isn't Remoaners hyping things up. It is simply a reality of what Brexit will mean. It's up to Brexiteers to propose a solution, not just ignore the problem and stick fingers in their ears.

[Old_Geezer]

The RoI is part of the EU and the EU is who won't accept the better alternative at the negotiation table. Remoaners make capital out of it to try to prevent Brexit. So apart from being absolutely right ...

[Rockrose]

// Remoaners //
Do you have to insult half the country OG? The word is remainers

[Old_Geezer]

Unless the CU rules change not leaving the CU means not leaving the EU. To fulfil the referendum we have to leave the CU as it stands.

It's ludicrous to suggest a deal where we don't.

The solution has already been proposed. We have the monitoring tech, the ability to trace source and destination, and ensure paperwork is available and taxes paid. Again it's those wanting to prevent Brexit that use the border as a way to achieve their aims, including those authorities who reject the solution.

[Old_Geezer]

No the word isn't remainers. Remoaners is a valid term for the subset of remainers who refuse to accept the democratic decision if it goes against their wishes. It is no insult, just accurate description.

[jim360]

I'm not disputing the claim that staying in the Customs Union is incompatible with Brexit, but the point is that if you insist on leaving the CU then you must accept that perforce this creates a problem related to the Irish border. There is no getting around the fact, then, that it is a problem Brexit has created: and it is therefore a problem that Brexit supporters need to solve.

That's the point.

[jim360]

So far as everyone is aware, the monitoring tech does not actually exist yet, or certainly will not be sufficiently advanced by March 29th this year even if it is.

A democratic decision still has to confront its practical implications. That is something Brexit supporters seem singularly unwilling to do.

[Old_Geezer]

Accept nothing of the sort. There is no problem save the fear of the unsubstantiated claim. And I've highlighted the way forward twice in this thread alone, already. The only thing remaining is for the EU and RoI to accept it.