What Happens With The Irish Border If We Leave With No Deal?

[ToraToraTora]

The whole border/ back stop etc malarkey has seen a lot of debate of late. Am I right in supposing that if we leave with no deal it stays as now anyway? OK the EUSSR may demand something from ROI but what can they realistically do when both UK and ROI are happy how it is now?

[Peter Pedant]

foo! yeah or no - - I think
clear question from 3T for a change

[Old_Geezer]

Depends on the RoI. The UK is happy with as it is now but I suspect the EU will want more management of cross border trade. Not that they've suggested any realistic options yet.

[Zacs-Master]

You must have read the multifarious informed views of NJ, Tora, surely?

[jim360]

On day one, probably nothing happens. Not long after, though, it is pretty much certain that someone will have to start recognising the reality of what trading with the EU under WTO rules means for the border. It becomes a border on either side of which Customs regulations are different, and in order to regulate this then both sides will have to start organising Customs checks.

Here are a few sources discussing the issue:

https://www.irishnews.com/news/northernirelandnews/2018/09/22/news/what-happens-if-no-brexit-deal-is-agreed--1439471/

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/jan/17/checks-on-both-sides-of-irish-border-mandatory-under-no-deal-brexit

https://fullfact.org/europe/leave-without-deal-irish-border/

Perhaps a better way of stating the reality is that nobody wants to even find out what will happen.

[Zacs-Master]

Old_Geezer: ‘Depends on the RoI / the EU will want more management of cross border trade’

Those two statements cancel each other out.

[vetuste_ennemi]

Mmm, I see.

I think "hard border" means people stopping goods crossing the border and checking whether tariffs where appropriate have been paid (or promised). (And a lot of other detail which I don't know or understand)

However, as we don't yet have such a "hard border", and everybody agrees that it is essential to avoid it, then in order to avoid it it is essential somebody create one to avoid

Now having pepared the ground we can now avoid a hard border. But only if we accept the Backstop which avoids the hard border which we haven't got yet but will have when somebody creates it.

(I think that's clear. Maybe not)

[ToraToraTora]

OG: "Depends on the RoI." the ROI have said they are happy with the status quo.
ZM: 22:08 - I have not seen any discussion here on what happens with the border issue under no deal.

[KARL]

The authorities on each side of any border will each decide what they want to do. In this case it is exceedingly unlikely that one of these will leave things as they are and that the other will do something different. In fact, without an agreement on how to manage customs and immigration matters it is inevitable that the default position will become one of a hard border. It is pretty much unthinkable that either/both parties will simply ignore the customs and tax (VAT, etc.) concerns, movement of people and all sorts and let traffic flow back and forth unhindered and not covered in any way. Anything other than a hard border is achieved only through a mutual agreement allowing whatever exception to 100% checks. At least that is the best of my knowledge. Neither the UK or the EU will be prepared to have a "hole" in their system as big as an open section of its border with no procedures to control things and charge the traffic according to (each country's) applicable rules and reassurance on the movement of people, pretending otherwise is disingenuous.

[Old_Geezer]

The statements are compatible.

Hasn't their PM indisted he's happy to stick with May's deal ? Folk need to decide which RoI view is correct.

[jim360]

I had thought this question was prompted by NJ and I presenting passionate, coherent and entirely opposite arguments on either side, eg in the thread about "return to terror".

[ichkeria]

If there is no deal then eventually - probably fairly soon - customs checks will need to be done.
If there IS a deal no problem. As the interim arrangements and later if need be the backstop will mean there is effectively a customs union between north and south (British Isles-wide under the former, Ireland only under the latter)
This has been done to death already hasn’t it? Surprised you think not.

[cassa333]

UK government has said they won’t put a hard boarder in place.

The NI assembly has said they won’t put a hard boarder in place.

Southern Island government has said they won’t put a hard boarder in place.

EU has said they won’t put a hard boarder in place.

So no hard boarder.

They will either have in place or get very quicky systems that allow trade to continue. Funnily enough most of the trade entering via Southampton docks is non EU goods and they work perfectly well.

[ToraToraTora]

ich, this is the only post I have seen regarding the border under no deal. Show me another.

[EDDIE51]

There never was a HARD border in the way most people think. There were and still are farms that have land on both sides of 'the border'. I used to work with someone who had such a farm. He crossed the border from both directions up to 200 times a day. While plowing a field for example, the field was 1/2 in the North and 1/2 in the South.

[jim360]

Best answer given to someone who can't even spell border...

[ToraToraTora]

spelling aside jim casa explains the truth of he matter and why it's a non issue that's been weaponised by those seeking to ignore the result of the referendum. Cassa's last sentence explains the only viable outcome regardless of deal or no deal and the first 4 points give the actual positions of the protagonists. So it's the best answer.

[goodgoalie]

Who's this 'hard boarder'? Flashman?

[jim360]

Except he doesn't explain the truth of the matter at all. He has, however, mastered the trick of telling you exactly what you wanted to hear.

No Deal = no customs union = necessary to have some system of checking cross-border goods. Both sides have indeed stated that they don't want a Hard Border, but both sides also recognise that this is exactly what No Deal imposes, via WTO rules if nothing else. Hence the Backstop; hence the fears over No Deal.

[Theland]

Customs Union = locked in to EU tariffs and unable to make trade deals with other countries.

Or am I wrong?

[andres]

We already have a computerized system in place that electronically tracks the movement of goods throughout the EU. Been used since 2012. Maybe this system could be adapted to take account of the tariffs that will be charged .