What's Happenned To Nochange Uk?

[ToraToraTora]

https://news.sky.com/story/nigel-farages-brexit-party-polling-higher-than-labour-and-tories-combined-before-eu-elections-11717553
I'd have thought they'd attract the remoaners in droves like BP has attracted the Brexiteers.

[jim360]

Well, fine. But polling works because it's possible to make conclusions about an entire population from sampling just a small part of it.

[naomi24]

Sometimes .....

[ludwig]

// What's Happenned To Nochange Uk? //

There are loads of other remain parties to vote for. Remainer's votes will be split between them with the lib-dems probably doing best out of it like they did in the council elections.

[ludwig]

//.. polling works because it's possible to make conclusions about an entire population from sampling just a small part of it. ..//

It only works if the conclusions made turn out to be right. That seems to be the case less and less these days.

[Hopkirk]

I think a lot of the politicians make the mistake of thinking that everyone who voted remain still want to remain. A lot of them feel the result should be respected, so may not vote for 'second referendum' parties.

[youngmafbog]

I too am surprised TIG are not polling better, but it is a poll of course.

//.. polling works because it's possible to make conclusions about an entire population from sampling just a small part of it. ..//

Not if you just poll Londonistan.

[youngmafbog]

Hopkirk, I know of a few that voted to remain, and still would vote that way again, but really are not happy about the aloof attitude of the Metropolitan elite who think they know better and so should thwart Democracy. They effectively see Democracy as bigger than Brexit.

[jno]

voters may well do as they did in the council elections, vote Lib Dem.

[youngmafbog]

Difficult to tell though jno, TIG and BP were not available to choose from.

[jno]

I know. None the less, that's my prediction: more Lib Dem votes. (And more for BP, obviously). Less for Tories and Labour. It's a pointless election, so people go out and do the unexpected, much as they do in by-elections.

[jim360]

Well obviously the conclusions that are drawn from polling come with some level of uncertainty. But as long as that's reasonably accounted for, eg by allowing for about 3-4 points either way, then it's possible to say sensible things out of polls more often than not. The conclusions reached are generally "wrong" only when you attach too much significance to the precise figures, rather than to the general story they tell.

In this case, I don't know whether it's 8%, 15%, or some other number between those two, of Labour votes that are swinging to the Brexit Party. What I *do* know is that BP is picking up far more disaffected Tories than it is Labour votes.

[Jackdaw33]

I predict a much higher turnout than usual this time due to the commitment of Brexit voters.