Can Somebody Brief Me As To Why There Will Be A Fuel Shortage?

[DTCwordfan]

Other than our own production, our crude oil comes from in descend order of volume

Norway
Nigeria
Algeria
USA
Russia
Libya
Saudi Arabia

The EU countries (80% of which The Neths and Denmark)account for less than 2% of our imports.

So why the hoohah about fuel shortages as nothing much should change in the current system as to imports of crude?



When it comes to products, we net import about 10 percent of our product requirements. However, the the UK refined product balances show a surplus of gasoline and fuel oil
and a deficit of diesel and jet. Demand for gasoline and for fuel oil are predicted to continue to fall, while demand for diesel and jet are predicted to continue to rise. As a result these
imbalances are expected to grow.

This has been known for some time but the imports involved could be and are being managed outside the EU as their refineries are out of balance as well when it comes to products - so, there has been an increasing call on US and M-Eastern products, esp. for diesel and aviation fuel (middle distillates). Again, we import very little from the EU

So again why any shortages? I would accept that, from a national strategic defence argument, that in the medium term the UK refining industry needs to restructure to demand - and this will require investment and a favourable environment for this to happen - wake up Government!

Gas - overtly that's more serious (current imports overall are 56% of needs) if the winter is cold if the EU pipeline system is interfered with - However, EU pipelines only account for just under 10% of our imports and are the Dutch and Belgians really going to pull back on Russian exports. If we were to lift our imports of liquid natural gas by 50%, we would be largely covered. Fyi most gas imports comes in from Norway.

My conclusion, these fuel shortages are all blah from the remainers, even if I have strong sympathy for their position. Be realistic and 'remain calm' when it comes to our fuels, folk...

Any counter-logic to this above?

[ToraToraTora]

project fear, ignore.

[jim360]

2% is still a lot. Plus, even if most fuel doesn't come directly from Europe, we still import a lot of it *via* Europe. So if there's disruption to supply chains in general then there would be knock-on effects. This is particularly true when we don't tend to have much in the way of surplus. In a lot of sectors the UK orders what it needs and then uses it almost instantly, and so on -- the "just in time" model.

Put another way -- not Project Fear, take seriously. I mean, don't panic-buy or anything like that, but don't be surprised to see significant disruption in a No-Deal scenario either.

[dannyk13]

Jim, so which fuels go via Europe? I can't see why oil tankers would need to do so.

[EDDIE51]

Because there is only a limited amount of 'Fossil Fuel' Coal,Oil, Gas , in the World ! We have already used around 60% of it in just over 50 years ! Remember it took Billions of years to be formed , from Pre-Historic plant life !

[jim360]

British Gas's website, for example, suggests that about 47% of the UK's gas is provided via European pipelines. Some of this is direct from Norway and won't be affected at all; some isn't, and might be.

I'd need a full breakdown of how much fuel is imported via Dover specifically, and in the five minutes I have available before I go out I can't find it. All I can say is that if even some of our fuel arrives through Dover then it is automatically true that all of that fuel supply will be disrupted in a No-Deal exit. And, since we basically don't store any of it for long-term use, then that virtually guarantees some level of fuel shortage.

[jim360]

Also Eddie's answer is, as usual, utterly irrelevant.

[New Judge]

//...even if most fuel doesn't come directly from Europe, we still import a lot of it *via* Europe.//

Leaving aside gas for the moment then, Jim, how much of our fuel comes "via" Europe (i.e. originates outside the EU and is transferred to the UK via the EU)?

[mushroom25]

there are no gas pipelines via dover. if you mean imported by truck via Dover, I would suggest very little because of the restrictions imposed on ferries and tunnel shuttles by ADR/RID regulations.

[New Judge]

//All I can say is that if even some of our fuel arrives through Dover then it is automatically true that all of that fuel supply will be disrupted in a No-Deal exit.//

Why is it automatically true? Why do you automatically believe that it is automatically true? Of course there are conflicting opinions and reports. But I'm thinking of this:

https://inews.co.uk/news/brexit/no-deal-brexit-dover-calais-ports-consequences-queues-france/

It's true that only mentions Calais. But you only mentioned Dover (though since Dover is under the control of the UK I cannot see any reason why the UK authorities should make life difficult for our importers). Is this the same automation of fact that applies to a hard border being imposed in Ireland?

[ichkeria]

It only takes a rumour of fuel shortages or indeed shortages of anything to cause panic buying and therefore ... shortages.

[DTCwordfan]

there's no oil product lines

on Gas, just over 75% of our imports come in from Norway (2017)

[DTCwordfan]

no oil product lines from Europe.....ferries don't exactly like product tankers - the only way would be coastal and not that competitive versus a 100kt+ LR product tanker from, say, the US

[douglas9401]

We're being gently primed to accept all kinds of drama in an attempt to get us to believe the 'do or die' BS from our temporary leader.

It'll all be fine however as 'die' will be the outcome when we don't leave after all and Boz has to find something else to fill his days.

[Gromit]

The Government planning is to set import Tariffs at 0% in the event of a no deal brexit.
An unintended consequence of that will be the closure of 2 (of our 6) refineries leading to thousands of job losses, strikes, and a disruption to petrol supplies, meaning food cannot be distributed within the country.

// Chaos on forecourts and oil refinery job losses are expected
i Newspaper19 Aug 2019By David Connett

Widespread fuel shortages and potential chaos at the petrol stations are forecast in the Government’s nodeal scenario plans.
At least two oil refineries could close with as many as 2,000 job losses if the Government chooses to remove import tariffs. Cheap imports would prompt the closures.
The closures would be the unintended consequence of a policy designed to support the economy in the event of no deal, the Yellowhammer document states.
It predicts there would be up to two weeks of disruption to fuel supplies around the country. Restrictions on the supply of petrol at garages would have the potential to cause widespread chaos, it warns.
A fuel blockade in 2000 saw the country nearly grind to a halt, it was reported.
Zero per cent tariffs would result in significant financial losses and the closing of two of the UK’s six major oil refineries. The job losses would lead to strike action and further disruption. The dossier predicts that thousands more jobs would be at risk from firms relying on the refineries.
The findings of the Yellowhammer report analysts have reportedly “so alarmed” officials at the Department for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy that they are carrying out further studies into the impact of a no-deal scenario.
Civil servants from other departments including the Treasury are also in talks with oil industry leaders. Sir Jim Ratcliffe, boss of Ineos, partowner of the Grangemouth refinery in Scotland, has already warned it may have to close some parts of its operation. //

[New Judge]

So basically then, as with most things "Project Fear" (which we must "take seriously") a load of cobblers. How unusual.

[New Judge]

//An unintended consequence of that will be the closure of 2 (of our 6) refineries...//

And once again nobody has said why. The country will still need to refine the same quantity of fuel, regardless of the import tariff. Why should the change in tariff result in fewer refineries being required?

This entire project sets out to scare the electorate witless into believing they will starve to death and freeze if we leave the EU. Some people recently educated may well believe that; those with a bit of sense and the ability to think for themselves do not. Life will go on, business will go on. There will be some short term inconveniences but life's like that sometimes. To continually suggest that our very existence is dependent on EU membership is getting, quite frankly, very tiresome and bordering on the ridiculous..

[Ellipsis]

The Yellowhammer document was prepared by our Government. Gove and Number 10 describe it as "out of date". So what (and where) is the Johnson administration's view of the impact of a No Deal Brexit on the fuel supply? Presumably they have one. ...

[ichkeria]

Zero per cent tariffs would have huge knock in effects not least for farming.
The Times claims the Yellowhammer leak is dated this month.
Although it does occur that leaks of doom and gloom might do the government no harm if they are worst case scenarios as they can simply turn round and say look it’s not as bad as that .
The joy :-)

[Ellipsis]

> The Times claims the Yellowhammer leak is dated this month

You would think/hope it was a "living document", i.e. not something written 12+ months ago that went instantly out of date.

[Peter Pedant]

// Because there is only a limited amount of 'Fossil Fuel' Coal,Oil, Gas , in the World ! We have already used around 60% of it in just over 50 years !//
hi ed - people being a bit rude about you I see

oil reserves me auld da' pointed out have been "at thirty years" since at least he was a student ( wotswatersrand 1931)