Can The Tories Capture Wigan?

[ToraToraTora]

https://news.sky.com/story/how-a-town-with-a-history-of-hate-for-the-tories-may-turn-blue-11859220
Coincidentally enough, the last December election in 1910 did return a Tory MP. Is history about to repeat itself in this heavily Brexiteer seat?

[Old_Geezer]

Who knows. It'd make sense as they'd endure a right wing MP just for the one period in order to restore our sovereignty. Well worth it. But folk don't like voting against their longer term beliefs.

[youngmafbog]

This is not a normal election. I reckon anything could happen.

[Gromit]

File under wishful thinking.

Some more here
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/nov/10/surrey-commuters-marginal-voters-election-tories-guildford

Wigan was always a Conservative seat until 1910. There were 2 elections in 1910.

In January Labour won in Wigan by 500 votes.
In December the Conservatives regained the seat by 500 votes.

[Gromit]

The argument seems to be that two thirds of Wiganites voted Leave in 2016 so will vote Tory now. But there was a General Election in 2017, and all those Leave voters voted for Labour. The Labour majority was greater than the entire Tory votes.

2017 election result.

Labour 29,575
Conservative 13,548
UKIP 2,750

Labour majority 16,027

[ToraToraTora]

gromit, for a non Labour supporter you don't arf support them a lot, you sure you're not a storm trooper?

[Old_Geezer]

But surely they must have realised what the situation is since then ?

[ToraToraTora]

Labour's position is un clear at best and probably anti brexit, they want to negotiate a deal and then have a second referendum within which it is unclear what their stance will be. There has also been 2 years of thwart by the VBQC, yes still unlikely enough will be swayed but I reckon it'll be a lot closer than 2017.

[Gromit]

Tora,
I am not supporting Labour on this thread, I am calling out the SKY report which is pure fantasist nonsense based on no facts.
The Fact that matters is Two thirds of Wigan voted Leave and a year later they voted for the Labour candidate by a massive 16,027 majority. And some idiot at SKY thinks it will turn this time.

[New Judge]

//But surely they must have realised what the situation is since then ?//

As I pointed out in a post last week, OG, "the situation" will not influence many Labour voters. They vote Labour and do not want to be baffled by facts.

[ToraToraTora]

yes gromit but do you no acknowledge that since then there have been 2 years of shenanigans attempting to thwart the result of the referendum not to mention the extremist influx and anti semitism and that would tempt many away from their traditional Labour stance?

[Khandro]

NJ //"the situation" will not influence many Labour voters.//

Maybe not 'many' but some could be enough in the marginals, particularly when urged to do so by former Labour MPs like Austin & Woodcock

[Gromit]

Tora

// there have been 2 years of shenanigans attempting to thwart the result of the referendum //

Labour lost the 2017 General Election, so the Conservatives were mandated by the voters to deliver Brexit
We could have left in March, but May’s deal was torpedoed by 118 Conservative MPs voting against it. You don’t think the voters will hold them equally responsible ?

[New Judge]

//We could have left in March, but May’s deal was torpedoed by 118//

Because it was not Brexit at all but simply entailed crossing our name off the list of members. Mr Johnson's new Treaty (quaintly known as a "deal") is scarcely any better.

[Gromit]

NJ

If Brexit is the deciding factor in the General Election (it wasn’t in 2017), then Tora is arguing that Labour will be punished for us non-brexiting. I don’t think that will happen. I know this is anecdotal, but I hear more people blaming May and Johnson for us not leaving.

[Old_Geezer]

You hear more remoaners blaming May and Johnson for us not leaving.
Others can assess the situation better.

[tellboy]

Not a chance, a monkey with a red rosette would be elected here. Lisa Nandy is a good MP but will not vote with the two thirds leavers here and it makes no difference. They will still vote her in.

[Gromit]

The ‘Workington Man’ theory is pretty daft to begin with. Which has led SKY News to come to this barmy hypothesis about Wigan to support the Workington Man theory.
I doubt it is Boris’ list of winnable seats.

[jourdain2]

I think that quoting the results from the 2017 election is specious and cannot be a reliable indicator. As an example, I (and I suspect most Leave voters) had had our say in the referendum; both Labour and the Conservatives had accepted that result (so they said, at least) and so people went back to voting on party lines, confident that Leave would be enacted by either party in power.

Things have changed, however, haven't they? I think that this particular election is unpredictable in the extreme.

[jourdain2]

^^^P.S. I hear many people saying that because of all this - there is no point in voting either way.