Wuhan Social Distancing

[TheDevil]

Wuhan lifts social distancing measures after 3 days with no newly recorded cases.

Will the UK follow suit if we have 3 days no new cases?

[fiction-factory]

Have you got a link please about the 3 days? I thought that Chinese cities had been on lockdown for a few weeks- I saw the clips of deserted streets and tannoyed messages about 4-5 weeks ago

[KARL]

Each country decides its own policy in all matters relating to an epidemic, the WHO makes recommendations. On past performance the UK will scrupulously remain different from every other country or, if that is impossible (no option of being totally different), at least be as different as possible - but it remains to be seen.

[Spicerack]

Isn't it racist to call it Wuhan Social Distancing?

[Zacs-Master]

https://metro.co.uk/2020/03/21/china-relaxes-social-distancing-wuhan-reports-no-new-cases-three-days-12436253/

[fiction-factory]

Anyway, I read something saying scientists here were expecting a peak in around 2 weeks from now (based on Italy I think), although I'm not sure what the explanation is- maybe people are infected already without realising from before social distancing was the norm and it won't lead to death for 2 weeks. I think the big surge though will be in care homes and among elderly shoppers who still seem to be in supermarkets and on buses -some need to but I know some who don't like to be told

[fiction-factory]

Thanks Zacs. I read TheDevil's post as saying social distancing was lifted after 3 days (meaning 3 days after introduced) but I can see it was to be read differently

[Spicerack]

Elderly people have to eat, ff. Why else would they go to supermarkets?

[Rationalist]

Official stats from the Chinese government here:
http://www.nhc.gov.cn/xcs/yqtb/202003/be74d71b2f784cae917cc830f244caa9.shtml

Google translation follows:
//Update on the epidemic situation of new coronavirus pneumonia as of 24:00 on March 21
Published: 2020-03-22Source : Health Emergency Office
　　At 04:00 on March 21, 31 provinces (autonomous regions, municipalities) and the Xinjiang Production and Construction Corps reported 46 new confirmed cases, 6 new deaths (5 in Hubei), and 45 new suspected cases.
　　On the same day, 504 new cases were cured and discharged, and 1,110 persons who had close contact with medical observation were released, and 118 severe cases were reduced.
　　As of 24:00 on March 21, according to reports from 31 provinces (autonomous regions and municipalities) and the Xinjiang Production and Construction Corps, there were 5549 confirmed cases (among which, 1845 were severe cases), 72,440 cases were discharged from the hospital, and 3261 cases were dead. A total of 81,054 confirmed cases were reported, and 118 cases were suspected. A total of 687,680 close contacts were traced, and 1,071 close contacts were still in medical observation.
　　There were 0 new confirmed cases in Hubei (0 in Wuhan), 490 new cured cases (463 in Wuhan), 5 new deaths (4 in Wuhan), and 5224 confirmed cases (5143 in Wuhan). Among them, 1812 were severe cases (1794 in Wuhan). A total of 59,432 discharged patients (42,354 in Wuhan) were cured, 3,144 deaths (2,508 in Wuhan), and 67,800 confirmed cases (in Wuhan, 5,005). There were 0 new suspected cases (0 in Wuhan) and 0 existing suspected cases (0 in Wuhan).
　　From 04:00 to 24:00 on March 21, 45 newly diagnosed imported cases were reported (14 in Shanghai, 13 in Beijing, 7 in Guangdong, 4 in Fujian, 2 in Jiangsu, 1 each in Hebei, Zhejiang, Jiangxi, Shandong and Sichuan example). As of 24:00 on March 21, a total of 314 confirmed imported cases were reported overseas.
　　A total of 444 confirmed cases were reported from Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan: 273 cases in Hong Kong Special Administrative Region (100 cases discharged, 4 deaths), 18 cases in Macau Special Administrative Region (10 cases discharged), 153 cases in Taiwan (28 cases discharged, 2 deaths) ).
 

 

(Note: When quoted by the media, please mark "Information comes from the official website of the National Health and Health Commission.")//

The Western reporting of lifting of restrictions in Wuhan is more optimism than reality. They need 14 days of no new cases before the borders of Hubei Province are opened. However, some of the most restrictive rules have been lifted, allowing people to move around the city of Wuhan.

https://mainichi.jp/english/articles/20200321/p2g/00m/0in/038000c

[Togo]

A little diagram here showing stats that predict is possible and what was possible.

https://nuk-tnl-deck-prod-static.s3-eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/uploads/1600c134df6a8f550841e2209dbc0e42.png

[Zacs-Master]

Scenario 3 should be preventable if we keep an eye on China / Italy.

[Spicerack]

Or develop a cure/vaccine.

[fiction-factory]

>Elderly people have to eat, ff. Why else would they go to supermarkets?
Reread what I said and work it out for yourself.
Here's an example. My son and flatmates offered to do some shopping for an elderly couple of neighbours but they had everything they needed. A few hours later he saw them get off a bus carrying a pack of toilet rolls.

[carolegif]

I don’t believe a word of it! How do we know it was Wuhan? There were large swathes of China unaffected by the virus, it is a huge country! After all their lies and cover up, don’t believe anything. They want us to start buying their goods again.

[mushroom25]

interesting article in the sunday times -
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/coronavirus-ten-days-that-shook-britain-and-changed-the-nation-for-ever-spz6sc9vb
(if you find it paywalled, you can read a copy here - http://www.thegwpf.com/inside-no-10-ten-days-that-shook-britain-and-changed-the-nation-for-ever/

//At a private engagement at the end of February, Cummings outlined the government’s strategy. Those present say it was “herd immunity, protect the economy and if that means some pensioners die, too bad”.//

needless to say the calls for the head of Mr Cummings are growing louder.....

[Spicerack]

Ah, an anecdotal story. I'm sorry I didn't hear about that.

[youngmafbog]

"needless to say the calls for the head of Mr Cummings are growing louder....."

Only from the liberal left who for some reason hate the blindingly obvious being stated. Thats if it actually was, these days it seem if you repeat a lie enough it becomes gospel.

[youngmafbog]

Each country will have different problems so each will need to customise the way it deals with things.

Luckily for us we are behind others so have more stats to work off than they did, plus we are a relatively rich nation.

[Togo]

""needless to say the calls for the head of Mr Cummings are growing louder.....""

....from the very same people who were callously telling us how much they were looking forward to old age pensioners dying so that they could thwart Brexit by holding another referendum without them.

[ichkeria]

In fairness to China, they were warning their neighbours of a new disease spreading back in December.
So I’m not sure there was ever any “cover up” exactly

[ichkeria]

Italy is a wealthy country and ironically its reputation for longevity might be a factor in its problems now